james22

What part of greater leverage don't you understand?

LOL Your 49% will now have to go to their (demonstrably) second choice (if even possible). And that second choice won't have to compete with the US, so they'll be even less attractive than they were.

75% of Canadian exports go to the US. Only 17% of US exports go to Canada. 49% of Canada's imports are from the US. Only about 12% of our imports come from them. Who has the leverage?

The Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones, but from regulation.

I don't believe that at all. Only bitcoin as you misunderstand it is inconsistent. Bandwidth is probably reason number one? I don't invest in JOE, for example, but not because I have decided not to. I just haven't had the time to look into it. Like most other opportunities. You think an investor can really "understand" a company's value better than bitcoin?

Many things trump economics. Something economists forget.

BTC doesn't need BRK. Ten years from now you'll look back at the adoption curve and never know if/when BRK bought in. BRK doesn't need BTC either. But if BRK buys BTC you'll look back at a price chart and know exactly when. No question, it'd be good for BTC. But it'd be better for BRK. I believe it is worth more than what it trades for today. That's why I'm 80% invested. Want to answer what would convince you you are wrong?

BRK would be far, far more advantaged by buying BTC than BTC would. But raises the question - is that what it would take? Since no naysayer has yet answered what would convince them they were wrong, how about Buffett changing his mind? Would that change yours?

While you assume he has failed to buy BTC only because he does understand it (as rat poison), I believe if Buffett understood BTC he'd buy it, yes. Nothing would better improve BRK's prospects (and Buffett's reputation) than exchanging some of BRK's cash for BTC. I first intended to reply that even as a shareholder (15% of my portfolio), I had no real problem with him failing to buy BTC, because he doesn't understand it (being outside his circle of competency). But as I think about it, I'm more than a little disappointed he hasn't taken the time to study it. I believe he has a responsibility to his shareholders to better understand the most transformative thing in finance today. And as an admirer, I'm disappointed he's spoken about BTC with ignorance. But we'll see, and if BTC ends up successful, Buffett will look better having missed because he simply didn't understand it than if he did (as you believe) and just got it very, very wrong.

Is Tiger Woods a better boxer than Mike Tyson because he made more money as an athlete?

Fuck no. Do you believe he has infinite bandwidth as well? Seriously, do you believe he is infallible?

I assumed he was talking about 73 Reds and the cult of Buffett.

Do you truly believe there is nothing outside Buffett's circle of competence?

Can Buffett create a rock so heavy he cannot lift?

The Value investor's process oft misses Growth investing opportunities. And vice-versa. Do you disagree? Do you believe Buffett's process is exempt?

Amazon digitized retail. At the time of its greatest growth, it was a tech company.

I didn't miss Monster or any number of other-than-tech investments, no. That's forgivable. But I did miss tech from 2010 to 2020. That's not. There's no excuse for missing what should have been obvious at the time. After one company digitizes something, every company after that that doing something similar and "crosses the chasm," should have been a no-brainer.

Avoiding bad investments is good, avoiding good investments is bad. They are not the same. Avoiding betting is good, avoiding investing opportunities is bad. They are not the same. How many times has he himself admitted he missed tech opportunities? Warren Buffett: I was wrong on Google and ‘too dumb’ to appreciate Amazon The Oracle of Omaha also professed ignorance on other big technology stocks, whose rallies he missed because he didn’t quite appreciate their value proposition at first glance. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren-buffett-admits-he-made-a-mistake-on-google.html Take it up with him.

How many investors have compounded as long as Buffett? If he'd been hit by a bus at 48 we wouldn't know his name. You're conflating avoiding bad investments with good. And conflating betting with good opportunities. Sure. Again, you can't take anything away from Buffett. He did great investing the way he did. But you also can't give him credit for things he didn't do. He missed tech.

Compounding, primarily. Not a better understanding of tech innovation and diffusion.

We can't take his word for what is not within Buffett's competence??

ZIRP pales compared to nature of accelerating technology.