Libs

HQI. Breaking my sizing rule.

I agree with your take. But, it's going to take a while for activity to recover IMO. Meanwhile, I just got a note from my agent in Irvine, CA, noting the following: -19% of homes for sale in May reduced their asking price at least once. Currently, it's 35%. -Inventory is up from a low of 954 homes to 1504. Pre-Covid average: 4,666! -Sales are down 40% from peak and lowest since 2004. Just some local color. My point is, these are numbers indicating a slowdown, not catastrophe.

Fascinating. Thanks.

The flaw is in getting caught up in all this macro stuff. If Buffett doesn't, you don't have to either. Get comfortable finding stocks with moats, that will endure, and just buy them when they are reasonably priced. Berkshire for example.

He looks more like Elvis Costello every year.

OPEN

This was in Barrons a couple of weeks ago. Sounds like a great bar bet. I've tried it out on friends and they guess 50-60%.... The math is - Berkshire stock was $20 in 1965; had it compounded like the S & P - 10.2% CAGR- it would be worth ~$4900. But Berkshire has compounded at 20%; and the A shares when the article came out were $490,000. Voila - it would take a 99% drop to hit $4900. Somewhere I read Buffett had a response to this, something along the lines of "let's not test the math."

This is the mirror image of what happened in 1982. Even after Volker had reduced inflation to 4%, the 10 - year yielded 10% for a while. (What a buy that would have been!). In essence, the market had little faith in Volker. Now, inflation is 8%...... and the 10- year yields 2%. The market has complete faith in Powell.

HQI limit order hit at $14.70

SCHW - again. Thank you, Mr. Market.

BC. Stupid cheap at $75

SCHW the ultimate interest rate play

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r Fascinating article. Russian elites are angry at the west - not Putin. Forget about regime change, folks....

I laughed.

More HQI.

OP wrote: <The amount invested would be somewhere in the region of 1-2% of my current portfolio> So yeah, it won't cost much.

Go for it, just don't charge anything. That way, it's a no-lose proposition for both of you: If he makes money, you helped him out. If he doesn't, you make him whole, and it was a fine gesture at minimal cost. This is a good idea, as long as you don't take a cut.

Ditto.

Thank God for Buffett and Munger.....who would never pass on an opportunity because of a macro fear. I would be broke if I hadn't instilled that philosophy years ago.

<The Fed will begin to at least taper and set the stage for stopping its buying sometime in 2022. That means some very heavy Treasury security issuance (with little to no Fed buying) is coming.> How much treasury issuance has the fed been soaking up? Something like a third? And that's predominantly on the short end, right?

HQI yesterday.

<A non-governmental medium of exchange is a critical component of that> A+ Mankind has longed for a uninflatable medium of exchange for centuries. It's downright primal. Governments are unable to provide this- they can't resist the temptation of debasement. Gold has worked better than anything, but has obvious shortcomings. Bitcoin may very well do the trick and supplant gold. Sometimes I think Bitcoin's origins are so bizarre - an nine- page white paper from a mysterious, anonymous source -that critics can't get over it. It sounds like a bad movie script. There is also a resistance- a mental block, almost - that a non-government currency can even work (or should be allowed). But previous moneys seem bizarre too- seashells, cattle, salt, beads. What really matters is acceptance, security, scarcity, and portability. BTC might solve all of those. The distractions about blockchain, and the altcoins mania, just muddy the waters. They are both irrelevant. For a long time I've been hearing that a better version will come along. What properties would it have that bitcoin lacks?

Thanks. Looks like the 10- year would have to crack 3% to make money on this. Seems reasonable.

<I have put on all of my TLT LEAP put positions> Wabuffo- such a great thread. Thanks. Regarding this - I've dabbled in these previously and they seem pretty expensive considering how little volatility there is in TLT. Are you going out to 2023 or 2024, if I may ask?

Funny you mention that. We sold our house in that same area, also in 1970, for $40,000 and moved to a small town in Nebraska. $40K was a fortune to us. (The house we bought in Nebraska cost $9,000..... and our neighbors later teased us for overpaying). I believe that house we sold is now worth $5MM. D'oh!