CorpRaider

I'ma check into refinancing my mortgage. hehe.

What happens if you try or are forced by redemptions to sell SHLD?

So contingent convertibles have no conversion feature? Makes sense.

Yeah I'm making like a chinese SOE and buying foreign assets before my currency craters. But it isn't without pain. I don't trust most EM for direct investment. Brazil is the country of the future....and it always will be. ;D I like a few years of capitalism and some cultural traditions around property rights; lack of tolerance for rampant corruption, at least outside of FIFA.

EAFE is like in the 25% percentile cheap....just saying.

I completely agree with Buffett. However, it's "America's best days", not necessarily "investor's-who-just-bought-whatever-US-company-stock-and-expects-that-GDP-growth-will-make-his-pick-work best days". If I had to pick whether to be born in US right now (knowing nothing about the future) or any time in the past (knowing in general what will happen up to 2015, but not particulars that would make me rich), I'd pick to be born now. Hell yeah bro, Elon's going to colonize Mars and the Google guys are going to make us live forever. Productivity whut?

Meh, every time I've heard WEB talk about it he says that even at 3% you're doubling GDP in a generation. That ain't bad when you're talking about already being rich. He talked with whats his face from Cerberus at the national economic club about this stuff like last year, I think. Says easy to close the gap to 2% of GSP deficit which is sustainable with simpson-boles or many other plans.

Yeah I read his stuff. If memory serves, this was actually about Hussman's use of the data set and his strong consclusions derived therefrom (Shiller never does this) this blogger later went on last year with a much more detailed and focused set of posts about the CAPE and potential/alleged problems with it and attempted to revamp the CAPE only to conclude it worked as is (as well as anything does). I do not make dramatic changes based on overall valuation metrics (don't want to sit on the sidelines for the entire decade of the 90's); maybe I should ignore them. In the end, however, I think returns are going to be a function of the earning/potential cash flows generated by the investment and changes in valuation thereof (just like they are in treasuries, real estate, gentlemen's clubs, ok maybe not gentlemen's clubs, etc...). Also, can I just say Nobel > Wordpress? haha. Just kidding, I love this guy's blog, but Shiller's hair....

They posture was "get very bullish", not should i go to cash if CAPE exceeds median or any of these other strawmen. Also, did someone above just basically say we are at a "permanently higher plateau" for equity valuations? I've heard that before, somewhere... :D Selection of 5 or 7 years for earnings smoothing period yields similar results from what I've read. Didn't Graham use a five year period?

Nah. I used to work there - that's just how things are and the media is likely blowing it way out of proportion. There were regular internal spats, even high up, when I was there and they were generally resolved reasonably. Interesting. Thanks for sharing. So did you make it to "the other side"?

I dunno but maybe around the 75th percentile of the most expensive in history (let's say 20 for the CAPE) might at least make me start to pay attention.

Yeah i need to buy some common so I can at least vote no on all the management proposals. It won't accomplish anything, but it will make me feel better. ;D

From what I've read Ray is busy with an internal pissing contest/voting campaign.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/how-europe-s-banks-got-hit-by-a-perfect-storm-in-five-charts und http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/deutsche-bank-says-it-has-at1-payment-capacity-of-1-1-billion

MDLZ hit an alert I set at $36 back a year or two ago, but I pussed out.

Buying BAC-WTA, eh?

I totally tried to respond with the GIF with peter griffin from family guy trying to dive into coins like scrooge mcduck, but I failed miserably. I am getting old.

The U.S. "market" doesn't seem especially cheap to me based on CAPE, Tobin's Q, Trailing P/S, P/B, etc...

They have some additional overlays in addition to the (float adjusted) market cap.

This thread delivers. The S&P active managers are the best marketers no doubt. Also, if I had only sold my I2 technologies in 99, I could have my man servant type this.

To me this is really just a permutation of the "lack of breadth," "FANG," momo outperformance, cyclicality of the value premium discussion that has been raging for the last year or three. Most of those guys (at least the value tilted etfs I listed) will probably look a lot better a few years hence, just like they did a few years ago, of course the average investor in their funds will probably underperform the index.

I prefer a slightly left of center commander in chief and a right of center (perhaps more slightly right than recently) house of reps. That way we are less likely to go play in the sandbox with our toys (or even in Europe, as in Serbia under Clinton) and we've got some tension to perhaps control spending (including tax spending via cuts, credits and loopholes). Basically, a Clinton and Gingrich dynamic; after the shutdowns.

Just a few more data points re: 2015 that we all probably know: IUSV (4.15%) IWD (4.0%) VLUE (3.66%) VTV (.96%) VBR (4.67%) RPV (8.42%) QVAL (13.47%) But I bet it feels a lot better to pay .20% and get smoked than 2/20.

His hair has platform value for days...

Doesn't work in fallujah. dun dun dun. You have to get thousands of your friends to surge after you lose to fix it. dun dun dun.