Spekulatius
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Posts posted by Spekulatius
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41 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:
Stock is down quite a bit on inventory corrections and the announcement of large upcoming CAPEX expenditure.
XFAB is at the end of a transition from low margin commodity production to more high value/high margin products (automobil, medical, industrial...). This will also reduce the cyclibility of their revenues.
In any case, worth more than a P/E of 6.5 to me as this is still a growing market.
Some of their fabs run ~1um feature size process. Bleeding edge is 3nm or 0.003um feature size. 1 um is basically “steampunk” tech for semiconductors. It does mean it can’t be a good business, but I found it remarkable.
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$FI - 37 years of double digit earnings growth. Who would have thought (I have a decent sized position )
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3 hours ago, Castanza said:
LOL sentiment from who? Every hedge fund and talking head is pumping China right now. If anything the sentiment is positive as Chinese equities are at 52 week lows.
Regardless of sentiment your initial comment has little to do with sentiment...
I think it’s a pretty contrarian viewpoint to invest in China, just looking at the charts. If you want to see positive sentiment look at everything related to tech and AI - that’s a whole other level than buying something on dips and low metrics.
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Merger agreements are always an interesting read, since they explain the background of the merger - in this case between APA and CPE. Looks like there were a total of 7 different suitors for CPE /Company A - G in discussions from late 2021 until 2024.
Seems like everyone is talking to everyone else about combining Permian assets.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000119312524021134/d664038ds4.htm#toc664038_49
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Reduced CNHI yesterday (they have earnings on 2/14) and MBB.DE (tender). Both did well for me.
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Google Bard has become much better than ChatGPT when you stick to the free version.
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1 hour ago, ratiman said:
Einhorn owned GM for years. Is he saying that GM was really trading at 5x when it was trading at 5x and he had to sell GM because the market wouldn't recognize the true value of GM? Because if that is his argument then he's just making excuses for owning a bad company with a low multiple.
What Einhorn is saying that starting in 2019 he realized that GM trading at a PE of 5 doesn’t matter, since they were not paying a large dividend or buying back a lot of stock back then. So shareholder yield (buyback and dividends ) was quite low, despite the low PE. He is now preferably looking at stocks with a high shareholders yield.
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10 minutes ago, Hektor said:
A Taylor Swift tour of China might spark its economy
Taylor Swift Wows Chinese Women Tired of Xi’s Conservative Era
The Chinese economy just need some stimulus - like strippers buying the empty homes on credit. This isn’t exactly a hard problem to solve.
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lol:
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One thing I have learned is that it’s hard to make money on a stock when management works against you as the owner. It’s hard enough to make money when management is on your side, but if they are decidedly not, I think it’s time to move on, unless there is a path to get rid of them. This applies even more so to nano or small caps than to larger business.
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You can only forecast things you can control. An oil company can’t control prices, they will make a forecast around and assumed price band and forecast production typically, but they can’t forecast earnings.
Almost any company will start their operating year with a forecast for internal budgeting purposes. That will include Capex , investment and staffing plans.
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@schin The Sparkassen and Raiffeisen banks resemble credit unions in the US and were designed as member serving and state/city serving institutions , so they are zombies by design. They, as well as banks in general also have been hurt by ZIRP, which means that things should actually get better for them.
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Here it is. 2* rated. I have seen worse. The gist is he states that that FFH is a mediocre underwriter and investor. No credit for recent improvements in profitability and hard market don’t last forever. Worth about book.
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Anyone likes $GTLS (Chart Industries). I have never followed the name, but had some time to kill and managed to listening on a Sumzero pitch on Zoom last week and found the setup compelling enough to buy a small starter position right away.
The stock got wrecked due to the high debt load from the pending Howden acquisition, but the presenter made a good case that the acquisition is transformative for GTLS and makes the business more predicable. GTLS share price has been super volatile in the past.
What I Iike about them is that they are in various of the gas handing value chain (pumps, heat exchangers, LNG handling), are kind of s Swiss Army knife offering if we get more into hydrogen, LNG projects etc. I was looking for plays into this that are not overpriced and had my eyes set on APD, but did not like recent comment s from management there. GTLS is way riskier, but if they execute well and things go their way, the earnings potential should be much larger too. Of course, so is the downside.
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Mobius starts to like China:
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@schin Which zombie companies in Europe are you talking about? Care to mention specific examples?
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If passive is truly becoming more and more dominant and value agnostic, than the opportunities for value investors should only increase as there is less and less competition. So the problem with passive taking over the investing business is somewhat self limiting.
If truly nobody cares about valuation any more, the few that do should be able to find extraordinary opportunities. I don’t think it will be as easy as buying all low PE or low P/B stocks, you can simply automate that process and it is ridiculous to assume it’s going to be that easy.
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6 hours ago, Parsad said:
I think they have to. Think about how big the non-performing real estate loan portfolio must be in China...if Evergrande is $260B in assets...think 10-15 times that at a minimum. It's like the government warrants issued by US banks during the GFC...they want to recover losses if there is any upside!
So, any value left in these companies after equity and bond holders are wiped out, is money the CCP is going to use to stabilize the system and refill their coffers for stimulus or losses already incurred. Foreign governments and entities can withstand China exposure losses...but China cannot withstand China's own losses! So international investors...suck it up!
Cheers!
I think the holes are going to be plugged by bond holders of these companies, banks and insurance (Ping An etc) cos who are going to be forced to buy assets. China has the so called “National Team” to do this. Tech is only indirectly affected via economic malaise and deflation. Think what happened during the GFC and housing bubble - same issue although the players are different. In both cases, the goal was to save the existing financial system. I believe China will drag the solution out over many years unlike the GFC. Tech will be the first one to bounce back, just like what happened to the GFC in the US and rest if the world.
All they really need to do is ease up on tech regulation but that’s a different issue than the Evergrande Chinese housing bubble.
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If you buy a gun it better works when you need it . Malfunctions with a gun are at best very inconvenient and worst case can cost your dear life, it’s not like a toaster. Seems like a no brainer to spent a bit more for something you trust will work as intended, but what do I know.
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If you like NG or LNG, then you may want to look at $GTLS. Today was a presentation on SumZero about Chart Industries that looked compelling enough to buy a few shares almost immediately. lots of things to like! But also some risk (see the news from Biden to pot. postpone new LNG export facilities).
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55 minutes ago, mjm said:
what's you thoughts on SDF? kinda same business. nice balance sheet.
SDF - Kali & Salz is a totally different business (salt mines). They are a high cost producer in this commodity space (Belarus and the Canadian potash mines are low cost producers) so I don’t think it’s an attractive business.
KWS is family controlled and it’s the 4th largest seed producer in the world and the only publicly traded pure play. It’s a unique business with lots of IP and deep barriers to entry. KWS plows 18-19% of their revenues into R&D . The third largest seed producer is the French Vilmorin and they went private a year or so ago.
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Also bought just a bit of PARA so I stay interested in the soap opera. Added a few shares of PM premarket (earnings looked alright to me).
I bought a starter in KWS.DE (seed company) as well on a weak earnings report. They did keep the annual forecast but we will see.
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Apple has another winner with “Masters of the air”.
Top notch show throughout (cast, production, special effects, storyline).
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2 hours ago, formthirteen said:
20 days in Mariupol
Watched it for ~45min and had to stop. Simply depressing.
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I have pro, but got the 50% off, so it’s fairly cheap for me. I think beyond some lesser used features, the features are pretty much the same and if you are on the fence because of cost, just chose Plus - you can always switch later.
Also get a referral code from an existing user. It might give you a discount, but I am not sure.