Spekulatius
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Posts posted by Spekulatius
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21 minutes ago, Luca said:
i saw that one too...what a bet and what a reward...always remember folks, for everyone of these is a guy with the opposite, 0 USD in his account and severe depression
There is not one, there are probably hundred that lose all on option trades. ST option trades are zero sum games.
This fellow seems to have some serious skill if you believe his posts.
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Animal spirits are still alive:
$20M starting from $2M…
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Nuclear power is much more expensive than NG power plants right now. I can’t imaging anything beating power generation at <$3 MCFE right now, not even coal.
I agree Ng is oversupplied in the US - all the more reason to export NGL right now not ban/ stall export licenses.
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I did not like Dumb money. I felt that the actor portraying Roaring Kitty was bland and felt the story was poorly told.
On True detective /Night Country, I personally liked the show, but I agree there was some weakness in storytelling especially Ep 3&4. I did feel they tied it up decently at the end. Acting was great.
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WEB made it clear that he won’t buy OXY outright.
Only insurance is thriving. BNSF seems to trail peers and BHE energy has hit a pothole. The remainder (manufacturing etc) is flat.
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Sold $GEHC in tax deferred accounts. This was just a starter position.
GEHC seems fully valued to me.
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18 minutes ago, Hektor said:
Thats an important distinction, I think. An idea who makes the chips for them?
TSMC
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3 hours ago, ourkid8 said:
Why? Its still significantly below TBV/BV. Jane re-affirmed their ROTCE targets as well.
Sure, but I want to build cash in one of my tax deferred accounts. I don’t expect $C rise from the ashes to be without hiccups either.
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2 hours ago, spartansaver said:
Has there ever been a manufacturing company in history (or any company) that added $60B of revenues in a single year? I'm just curious because that is wild, don't really care about the stock.
Well NVDA is not a manufacturing company - they don’t build their own ships, they just design them.
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Reduced $C a bit and sold my highest cost shares in $RI.PA
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21 minutes ago, mattee2264 said:
Other thing about Nvidia is the "gold rush" analogy. In the short term it doesn't matter how much gold there actually is in AI. So even if you are sceptical about the practical value of AI, so long as Big Tech, consumers and businesses are fascinated by it and paranoid that if they don't invest in it they will get left behind they will pay whatever it takes to stockpile as many of Nvidia's chips as they can.
Over the medium term it seems quite likely that Nvidia will fall back to earth once they either lose their technological lead or good-enough products at lower prices force them to cut prices and margins and Big Tech have got through the initial investment phase and their annual demand for chip diminishes. But in the short term Nvidia is going to keep going higher until they disappoint investors.
Yes, the gold rush analogy is a pretty good one. We don’t know how much gold rush is out there, but there is plenty of money sloshing around to buy shovel’s (NVDA chips).
Eventually there will be an AI winter where funding dries up and only the most worthwhile projects and upstarts will receive funding. Thats a while out though.
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4 hours ago, ArminvanBuyout said:
Bigger than the Super Bowl
lol. There are a bunch of live stream with $NVDA ticket now on YT.
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27 minutes ago, Hektor said:
Capital One is Buying Discover Financial, Sources Say
A deal could be announced as soon as Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. Discover has a market value of nearly $28 billion, and the takeover would be expected to value it at a premium to that.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/capital-one-is-buying-discover-financial-sources-say-a7c43dd2?mod=mhp
Now that’s an development I did not expect, although a deal makes sense as there are quite a few synergies. I don’t think COF can afford to pay cash, so I think the deal is either stock for stock or stock and cash.
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Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. I can see this becoming quite a political issue and if they expire, it’s going to be a huge headwind for stocks.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/buckle-2025-promises-be-historic-year-tax-and-budget-policy
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On 1/22/2024 at 10:34 AM, Pelagic said:
A sobering look at just how long real policy change can take.
The important thing is to start going in the right direction far enough that the average person see some tangible progress. That makes it likely that whoever is going to be elected next keeps doing the same thing.
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18 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Volatility is just crazy on these, worse than oil and gas and that’s saying something.
I think if there is a play here is Hertz warrants.
No position and none likely, but still watching, if it gets very low there may be a way to play it.The Hertz warrants are $4.37 while the stock is $7.37. I think the warrants are a very long dated call at a $13.8 strike with a 2051 date. I don’t think it’s that attractive unless you are very bullish about HTZ stock price.
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2 hours ago, winjitsu said:
Yes, I was looking at Autozone
For a cannibal to work, you need a cheap stock with a low earnings multiple not an expensive one. The best case scenario is that your cheap cannibal becomes an expensive compounder but then the buyback magic really doesn’t now worth any more - see AZO or AAPL.
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38 minutes ago, mjm said:
what do you base that on? poor economy? curious?
Consensus forecast. Looks like consensus is for a loss in Q1, which is much weaker than last year.
Part of the issue is with increased vehicle depreciation expenses due to used car prices becoming weaker apparently.
I am surprised by the violent stock reaction and didn’t expect it just reading the earnings release.
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On 1/17/2024 at 7:33 AM, Spekulatius said:
The cars were always financed with debt, but what really surprised me when I looked at both Hertz and Avis balance sheet that they added some corporate unsecured debt at the company level. So these business are a really a pile of unsecured debt on top of a huge pile of secured debt with a sliver of equity. The stocks seem very much like options themselves. Great if it works, but a zero if it doesn’t.
$CAR down from ~$170 to $113 since discussed here. Weak operating results and a ton of leverage do this. I think 2024 results are going to be way down, it seems.
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2 hours ago, winjitsu said:
@FCharlie how are you getting 6-7x P/E here? Showing 16-17x on TIKR and my quick glance at the Q is in the same ballpark.You must be looking at a different stock then. $AN last quarterly earnings were $5.04/ share and 2024 consensus forecast is for $19.3/ share which at $143 is a 7.4x PE.
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Sold remainder of my CVS (in taxable account) and a smidge of VNT (in an tax deferred account low on cash)
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13 hours ago, Paarslaars said:
You are correct. Other than what @inofeisone mentioned, this is common for those industries. Automobile, medical, etc... their priority is reliability & robustness, not performance. No point in putting 3nm node electronics in a car if it breaks down the first time you hit a speed bump.
It’s not just that, some analog devices can’t be miniaturized, because they don’t work binary. Sometimes you need to generate a certain current or power output and a too small device structure won’t be able to do with without overheating. Same with a sensor - if you want to capture some photons , you may need the receptive area to be of a certain size etc.
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B21 public flight. Beautiful bird. Seems on schedule too:
Russia-Ukrainian War
in General Discussion
Posted
Pretty good 5 min summary from Michael Clark of the current situation: