Phaceliacapital
-
Posts
1,004 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Phaceliacapital
-
-
Oh man...a film about my hero Dr. Mike Burry - can't wait!!
It must be pretty surreal to be Dr. Burry in the last 15 years....leave medicine, start a hedge fund, bet against the big boys, win big, get famous, get a book written, get a movie made...all because of his tendency to "think independently." Even more surreal is the fact that he is very shy, awkward and wants the furthest thing from publicity.
I know films need the guns, hot girls, fast cars to appeal to a wider audience but I hope it actually shows that Dr. Burry and the other shorts went through during late 2005-early 2007 when the outside investors began questioning Burry, threatened to pull money out, made Dr. Burry physically sick.
Yeah what a life, you make several x for your clients, and those same clients reward you with massive redemptions... No calls, no inflows, no nothing...
-
I'm always amazed by how big the guy is..
Were there interesting tidbits in? It's from 2009 so how relevant is it today?
-
At this time of the internet I can't believe there are no other ways to learn about TM without spending 1.5k??
-
Yes that is true..
-
Thanks for the input but those are not the books I am looking for (please read this in Obi Wan voice).
-
Let's first see if the deal works out :D
-
Donegan would be a good guy to have under the BRK umbrella.
-
I saw a reference to a book concerning Disney's corporate history in another book (and I can't recall which as I've been on a reading bonanza, "built to last" or "good to great" or "king of capital" or "new tycoons" or "Creativity" or "Made in America"), I think the title was something with "Attack on Magic Kingdom" or something alike but I can't find it..
Sounds familiar to someone?
-
I posted this in the Viacom thread:
ESPN is the most popular channel by far, but its acquisition costs are pretty high. I love the business of Disney, and would have made it a big piece of my portfolio years ago if it wasn't for ESPN being such a huge part of the value. I think they're likely to get squeezed in two ways.
1) The sports leagues continue to grab more economics for "the only content that is always watched live"
2) The higher and higher prices they charge for ESPN hurt them if/when de-bundling occurs. While there are lots of people who would pay $20/month for ESPN, there are many, many households who get it as part of a cable package and would never dream of subscribing separately.
Do you think sports leagues would be able to create their own national multi sport channel? I find it highly unlikely but not impossible.
I like Fox, especially thanks to its hidden assets (India, Vice, Hulu) and the little to no credit given to its Sky stake.
-
-
-
-
Very interesting events, you don't often see such cross border activity.
-
Does anyone know the following:
From a tax perspective, what happens when I, as an EU investor, buy the US ADR of a Mexican company that is going to do a spinoff whereby I receive one share of the spun off entity for each ADR I own?
Thanks in advance.
-
For cons goods in this sector I would reckon anywhere between 10 - 14x EV/EBITDA.
P/E around 22-24ish??
-
Is he having problems with outflows? The site kinda remembers me of Pimco's marketing effort in the FT after Gross left.
-
Taking a step back from the financials and valuation, you have to admit it's quite impressive (to say the least) what these guys are building.. Heinz is the ideal platform for Kraft brands when Mondelez loses several of the trademark rights in the next couple of years. They don't have to build shit in other regions, it's almost a question of "plug & play" into Heinz's distribution networks.
GE of consumer goods.
-
Some important adjustments to the quick valuation:
1. They have stated they plan to buy in the $8B Berkshire preferreds in 2016 (these yield 9%! - that is an after tax cost to common shareholders) using debt issuance (BBB-) of the same amount (so figure, I don't know, something like 4% pre-tax or 3% after tax for the debt for a cash savings for common shareholders of the difference 6% (ie 9% minus 3%) of $8 billion or around $500 million; this is consistent with Kraft's merger presentation where they state savings of $450 to 500 million). All that to say net debt increases from $20 billion in 2015 to $28 billion in 2016 to buy-in the Berkshire held preferreds, however there is an extra 0.5 billion going to common per year because of this planned exchange in 2016.
2. They are going to refi $9.5 billion of Heinz high yield debt with the same amount of investment grade debt on close of the transaction - ie H2 2015. I'll guess that is a 3% pre-tax savings or 2% savings after-tax on $9.5 billion - so $300 million pre and $200 post-tax savings respectively.
(Note: both 1 and 2 above are in addition to the announced 1.5 billion in synergy savings)
3. They are targeting $2 billion of debt pay-down in 2 years (other cash requirements will be around $2 billion required one-time to achieve the $1.5 billion in annual synergies they have planned for; also they will maintain the same dividend for the next 2 years and thereafter, plan to either maintain it or increase it). In summary, their baseline seems to indicate $28 billion in net debt by 2016 minus $2 billion for $26 billion in net debt by 2016/17.
4. I agree that the 2015 dividend should be included.
Yes I agree.
Points 1 & 2 however are difficult to model from an EV/EBITDA perspective. I included both 3 & 4, there is a debt pay down assumption and a dividend growth rate.
I also redid the Heinz valuation, I guess the implied Heinz equity stub is around 31 bn?
-
That's why I said basic :D
-
-
Looks like a fair deal, curious to see financing details.
As kraft shareholder you get a 25% dividend + 49% of a company with mcap probably around 60 mn (assuming no net debt change + 10x EBITDA)?
So 10 mn + 30 mn = 40 mn, + 3G & Buffett as long term partners. Not too shabby
-
Do you have data on other indices?
Thanks.
-
Great topic.
Health & Wellness => towards higher protein and lower sugar & fat foods
- Fish related companies (tuna, salmon)? Specialty Ingredient companies such as Ingredion, Tate & Lyle, International Flavors, ...
Ever rising healthcare costs
- private organization stepping in to manage hospitals/elderly homes/drug budgets/... Orpea, HCC Healthcare, Tenet, Express Scripts, CVS, ??
#1 of #2 distributors in any sector
- competitive position reinforced by economies of scale and switching costs. Fastenal, Patterson, Henry Schein, MRC, DNOW, ... ?
-
Thoughts on AUM?
Christian Ryther of Curreen Capital at CoBF NYC
in General Discussion
Posted
Euh,
there is a girl there :D ?