constructive

I believe he made less than $200M from selling Paypal, plus he got divorced a few years ago, and is known for having personal debt. Forbes may be applying less skepticism to Musk's net worth calculation than they did with Prince Alwaleed. When SpaceX lists publicly, I'll have more confidence in that number.

A reasonable counterpoint: http://seekingalpha.com/article/428181-debunking-s-p-500-profit-margin-anxiety I don't think the negative correlation between profit margins and subsequent returns is very strong.

And then I got to page 5, and realized that he added this fifth definition...

His analysis is great as usual, but I think his definitions of "equity risk premium" miss the way P&I is using it - earnings yield minus risk free rate. Then the suggestion that the equity risk premium has risen makes more sense.

Given that around 1/3rd of US companies are unprofitable, I don't think it makes much sense to focus on shorting profitable companies like TFM, JNJ, GMCR, VALE, THO, VZ or SHW.

Very interesting. Their conservatism, while appropriate in 2000 and 2007, seemed a bit excessive in 2002 and 2009. Gentex (GNTX) 7.9M Stryker (SYK) 5.6M Abbott Labs (ABT) 5.6M Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) 5.5M Walgreen (WAG) 5.0M Amgen (AMGN) 4.7M Wal-Mart (WMT) 4.2M Travelers (TRV) 3.9M Hewlett Packard (HPQ) 3.4M Gentherm (THRM) 1.8M Colfax (CFX) 1.1M Emmis (EMMS) 0.4M

I believe most brokers only charge you once per day for partial fills, not for each individual fill. I recommend Interactive Brokers, and generally not using AON. http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=commission&p=stocks2

Damn, that's a nice looking filly ...and the horse isn't bad either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cr%C3%A9dit_Agricole "Crédit Agricole S.A. is majority owned by 39 French co-operative retail banks, Caisses Régionales de Crédit Agricole Mutuel." It is an unusual structure which may explain the low valuations.

Have you considered Kenan-Flagler, "The Online MBA You Probably Can't Get Into"? This comment appears courtesy of the Google Syndication Network

Genworth (GNW) plans to continue monetizing non-core assets, including Genworth Australia later this year. It trades at 0.3x tangible book value. Vodafone (VOD) owns 45% of Verizon Wireless, PNC owns 26% of Blackrock, and EMC owns 80% of VMWare. In my opinion all look very cheap on sum of parts. Also Exor, FFP and Porsche: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/auto-manufacturers/msg95647/#msg95647

8-k that Berkshire filed yesterday afternoon said $14 billion of financing from WFC and JPM. They also said they would rollover some existing debt that did not have a change of control clause. Berkshire 12B (preferred and equity) 3G 4B (Equity) Debt 14B Total $29 Billion of the $28 billion deal. Green King was saying that 7% was too high for debt, not $14B. The median BB bond has a 5.8% yield to maturity, the median B bond 7.7%. This deal seems in that range and a 7% average rate seems a little high but not much.

Great call. For the next acquisition I predict McCormick, for total condiment domination.

I think the preferred are a great deal for Berkshire. 3G's side of the deal looks a lot less attractive. The only problem is that this deal will generate too much cash! Berkshire must do more and more and more big acquisitions, or start paying a dividend sooner than anticipated.

Surprising there's no Vodafone thread. Considering their Verizon Wireless stake they look pretty cheap too.

I assume he mentioned Otis, owned by UTX?

There's also CONE. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1118621-ipo-preview-cyrusone DFT might be the cheapest.

http://onlineathens.com/local-news/2012-01-15/old-theft-charge-could-lead-longtime-athenians-deportation If his investors knew the truth, would they be willing to invest with a former felon facing deportation? I hope the SEC shuts him down.

The article left out the best part: "Downgrade, Mortimer, downgrade!!!"

Not specifically heavy trucks, but Remy International (REMY) looks like one of the cheapest auto part manufacturers at 8.5x earnings (ex-special items). They recently relisted on the Nasdaq after a few years of bankruptcy and OTC purgatory.

Since you already own them and probably don't plan to trade actively, why doesn't your wife just apply to the accounting dept for an exemption? Can't hurt.

When you add up 13% inflation, 2.4% growth in government, and around 5% increase in productivity, it doesn't surprise me that nominal GDP is flat over the last 6 years despite employment declining around 20%.

Key quote. If you can't run the hotel better than the current owner, don't buy it. If you can add value to the bar, you could make him an offer for that.

Agreed, homebuilders and construction material companies were up huge in 2012. And most of them are not very good companies, just caught in a cyclical updraft. Going forward, some cheap possibilities in addition to Berkshire Hathaway and banks: hhgregg (HGG) - appliance & electronics retailer Omnova (OMN) - building products & chemicals manufacturer Tronox (TROX) - paint manufacturer Kronos (KRO) / National Lead (NL) - paint manufacturer DIRECTV (DTV) - satellite TV (benefits from accelerating household formation)

Well, the only rule is don't lose money. With that in mind, shorting Berkshire is a terrible idea. My long Pandora (Jewelry), short Pandora Media trade last year made a lot more sense.