no_free_lunch

I am not an expert but I really like Manitok. It is priced similar to some of the larger (and still cheap) companies in the oil patch but without all of the debt. Plus they have been growing like mad lately. Company repurchased 5% of shares in the most recent quarter (partially offset by issuing about .7% shares) with another 10% repurchase authorized. They have maintained administratives expenses at prior levels while production has doubled, always good to see. If they hit their production targets and the oil price stays flat it's probably a double. Just my somewhat rough opinion.

Dan Loeb bought into Activis recently. It is now his largest holding (according to dataroma) with about 8% of assets.

PKX

Interesting gary.. it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)

It's a good point Kraven. I am going to use that as an opportunity to put in a pre-emptive sell order on the SPY ETF. I am 100% short the index when the transaction occurs. NOTE: As this is a pre-emptive order, the transaction is subject to certain conditions being met. Specifically the SPY must decrease in value by more than 1% by tomorrow's close. Failing that condition I revoke my pre-emptive order. :P

Cageyone, That is a pretty incredible story on your FFH position. 35x your initial investment! Well done! I am very interested what else is in your portfolio. :) Thanks in advance.

Thanks Patmo, I missed your write-up originally but on the surface that is the type of company I am looking for. I've got some DD to do.

Since gold miners are getting close to multi-year lows and the stock market is at an all-time high, I am bumping this thread. What is the best-in-class gold mining company? Or, would it be better just to invest in a gold etf?

Spekulatius, Just curious how severe the 98 recession was? I know that was in the middle of a raging bull, so did it get to the point where there were great deals or were prices just cheap in comparison to prior levels?

I would put Altius on the list as well. Not sure if it's 50x or what but long-term I seem them doing well. It's going to be a bumpy ride though!

Don't forget with Tesla guys that they are an auto-manufacturer today, tomorrow who knows? They are now getting into battery manufacturing which is new. Who knows what they will pivot into next. That is why I compare them to Apple pre-ipod. Tesla in 20 years will be in different segments than today is my prediction. The one caveat is I don't know for sure that Musk will use tesla for his new ideas, he already has SpaceX and Solar City so perhaps he will keep IPO'ing new companies. However Tesla now has brand recognition so I am betting he will leverage the brand.

PatientCheetah, From what I understand that will change a bit once the JOBS act goes through:

TSLA It seems wildly overpriced right now but it will grow like a weed and pivot into new markets. Valuing it right now is like trying to value Apple pre-ipod. I don't know the exact path they will take but it wouldn't surprise me if it's a 50x over the next 20 years. Just a guess of course but I have a small amount in it which should contribute meaningfully to my portfolio if I am right.

+1 That is probably the strongest moat I have ever seen. I would say that facebook's is incredibly strong as well. Even google couldn't touch it. Not sure if it's $100B strong, but close enough.

Kevin4u2, Fair enough, I should have qualified. I am talking the S&P500. Even with the S&P you have a small group of companies pushing up the valuation, so the vast majority are even lower than the market multiple implies.

Looking back historically (over the past 140 years), it's a fairly normal valuation right now. Could go down, could go up. I am fully invested.

A China crash is definitely concerning but then it's been widely predicted since 2007. Nevertheless, it could happen and it could be ugly. I am just trying to figure out what the impact would be on western economies? Since China is a net exporter, from a US perspective wouldn't the impact be fairly muted? China is certainly going to continue to produce and ship goods in the event of an economic downturn. There will be a stronger effort to weaken the currency which involves buying US government debt so it could push US yields down. Maybe the banking crisis would spill over to western banks? Canada/Australia could get hit if demand for iron goes down I suppose. I don't know, I am just not sure how much it would impact my investments.

Has anyone looked into oilfield services and equipment companies? I have found 1 with FCF yield around 12%, with high acquisition related growth and yet minimal debt. It seems dirt cheap frankly but then I don't really know the sector at all. I am just wondering if there is reason to be wary this type of company or where we might be in the cycle.

I don't know where it will trade, but I got fair value today at $220k minimum.

I am slightly, very slightly, familiar with PBM having done a bit of research on ESRX as well. I am just wondering what advantage CTRX would have if they are the smallest and thus don't have scale?

I have never heard of CTRX before but a quick glance shows it has been growing like a weed and has got whacked lately due to lower 2014 estimates. Anything you can share on this one?

Packer, I think I misspoke. This holding company portfolio is a newer development and just reflective of where I have been finding value lately. Over the past decade they were usually only 5-20% of my portfolio, not enough for the results to be statistically significant. However, I definitely have beaten the averages and the overall portfolio even with my holding company picks. I don't think I would do as well if I made this a dedicated strategy as I would end up buying holding companies just to fill the portfolio and would probably ignore the qualitative factors.

GS is interesting at these levels for sure. The one thing that concerns me is that their leverage was 20-25x when they were reaping it in back before GFC. Now leverage is about 10x. From what I understand increasing leverage isn't an option for foreseeable future (correct me if I'm wrong there). Back when they had the 25x leverage their ROE was 2.5x todays but that is basically entirely accounted for by the leverage. So is it possible that they can get back to 20-25% ROE again without more leverage? If the answer is yes, it is a steal. If not, it is still probably somewhat under-priced given their maneuvering through the crisis and consistently growing book.

Looking at my portfolio, that is basically what I do. BRK, LUK, LMCA, DC-A.to, BAM, FFH.to, I own mostly just holding companies in place of ETFs. I think if you can buy them at low discounts to book based on historic figures, on average their holdings should return average results (if EMT is correct) but eventually they will trade at higher premiums to book. So if nothing else you get average results + a kicker if you sell at a book multiple which is higher than that which you purchased it at. Even with EMT they should revert to historic book value multipliers at some point. Best case they are superior capital allocators so you get superior investment results + kicker from selling out at a higher multiple.

How were your returns during your 15 years value investing? Did your final numbers beat a local index? I honestly think that indexes can be more dangerous than buying individual stocks if you are diversified. At least with stocks you somewhat understand the risks. Just my opinion.