cubsfan
-
Posts
3,801 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by cubsfan
-
-
8 minutes ago, Luca said:
How many Jobs will fall away if the US can't export to China? I mean yeah, US citizens will buy more expensive US made goods but what about Chinese buying US goods? Is it fundamentally that easy to say "fuck china" and be good? @cubsfan
It was very good for the country when he was the US President, and I see no reason why it won't be again. For one, the energy "jobs" will be a boon to the economy, and the destruction of useless regulations will fuel corporate profits and jobs. President Biden has strangled this economy with low paying jobs and inflation.
China can do whatever they like - I'm concerned about a thriving US economy. @Luca
-
26 minutes ago, Luca said:
Would be bearish for Chinese equities initially if Trump gets reelected...
And very bullish for US stocks...
-
^^^ I think you make excellent points, we really just don’t know. How many Ukrainians have left the country? 20 or 25%?? The scandal with conscripts this year where deferments were being sold right and left for those choosing not to fight - is a sure sign of stress. Broadening the military age to able bodied men from 18 to 60 looks like manpower stress. Now including women looks like stress. So this years crackdown is indicative of a manpower shortage. We’ll know soon enough. The issue won’t be weapons, but enough people to man and train those weapons, and then fight.
-
9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
Well worth a view.
Stand out slide.
Cant remember here who was trying to categorize the Russian’s as some 3rd world country that had lost its access to resources and was somehow incompetent and impotent from a military industrial standpoint. Review the slide above and realize that on the left you’re looking at the ‘West’ emptying out its lockers to supply Ukraine shells etc……then on the right it’s Russia with a little help from its friends.
You take the above , add in the simple population advantage Russia has plus their GDP advantage.
Then layer on the fact that the Russian’s are their own masters here in terms of funding the war….plus their own captive military industrial complex to produce what they need (artillery, tanks, drones, missiles)
Ukraine by contrast is running the war on shaky welfare payments from the USA/UK/EU……and the consumables (artillery, tanks) are coming not from their own captive industrial base….but the combined industrial bases of the West which has been shown during Covid and during this conflict to be quite limited relative to the past and relative to China/Russia who never de-industrialized as we clearly have.
Ukraine is in a terrible situation……and without a decisive step change in the quantum and scope of our support, they are doomed….perhaps Putin sits tight till Nov 2024 to see who takes the WH….but I suspect not…..at a certain point I think he drives to take more territory bordering the Black Sea all the way to Odessa if possible. Time is on his side - this could be a 2025 or 2026 project for all he cares….time is not the friend of Ukraine or the West’s flagging support.
Right - unfortunately, Ukraine is going to run out of manpower. Already hearing about forced conscription of any able bodied males on the streets. With the media controlled by the government, and martial law in place , getting the real story is tough.Nobody wants to see Ukraine fail, but recovering the Crimea & Donbas is a pipe dream.
-
44 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
“‘People Snatchers’: Ukraine’s Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks” -
Ukraine running out of soldiers - Zelensky had to sack his whole recruitment apparatus earlier this year…as they were literally selling draft dodging get out of the war tickets to fighting age men. The corruption in Ukraine remains completely under appreciated in the WestThe Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table.
Today they are asking for weapons & money….the longer this goes on they will start asking for men. Let’s not get to that point.
Yeah, made this point before- Ukraine running out of men- everyone says “no way”.Unfortunately, it’s tough to believe a corrupt, what’s effectively a dictatorship that doesn’t allow free speech. You never really know where you’re at after that supposed steamroller spring offensive.
-
^^ Fair enough. But they are still deadly & effective weapons I presume?
-
2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
The problem in Ukraine (or Afghanistan/Iraq).....is a very simple one......they ultimately aren't strategically important to the USA.......therefore resolve and perseverance as compared to the incumbent forces in the region is lacking......you can be a great military power but resolve & perseverance isn't measured in warheads & artillery. The Taliban couldnt compete militatrily with US forces.....but they out competed them in resolve & perseverance and won.
Here we are in Ukraine what less than 24 months after the war started with US political leadership withholding funding and talking about the next round of funding being tied to an 'end game', an end game with battle lines drawn with some 20% of Ukraine under Russian occupation......so 22 months in and the 'West' is lagging in resolve & perseverance cause really Ukraine isnt strategically important to us. We rode in like heroes telling Zellensky not to negotiate with Putin when Russia occupied 5% of Ukraine cause we had his back and here we are. 20% of Ukraine gone, talking about an end game.
Now take the other side of the coin....Russia.....in 22 months Ukraine's concubine status, its neutrality remains a high priority objective for Russia......the check mate element here though is simple and its the resolve and perseverance elemnt........forget 22 months.....in 22 years......in a 100yrs years.....Ukraine will remain strategically important to Russia.....Russia's resolve and perseverance as regards Ukraine is almost infinite as compared to ours.
We did the Ukrainian people a disservice it seems with our blowhard talk of support and standing ovations for Zelensky in 2022......Zelensky taught he was selling us the war when in fact we were selling him our (false) support cause it felt righteous and good in the moment.
What does Buffet say - dont own a stock for 10 seconds that you wouldnt be willing to own for 10yrs.
Well my rule of thumb is don't get involved in a war for 10 seconds that you wouldn't be willing to be involved in for 100yrs.
Your view is well taken.
We have however supplied > $100B in arms to Ukraine. An enormous show of support. I do think the line for the USA can be drawn at sending troops. And if we withhold funds due to internal politics of the southern border, that’s ok too.
Europe can step up, as it maybe in THEIR strategic interest. .
It is in OUR strategic interest if you consider the ripple effect to China/Taiwan.
But your point can be debated.
Personally, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt, it would make the aid argument easier.
But they have also fought bravely and appear willing to die for their country.
That should count for something.
personally, they think victory is stopping Russia, letting them have Crimea & The Donbas, not the total victory Ukraine demands.
-
1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
@formthirteen & @changegonnacome,
Thanks.
Let me here just express my deepest worries about how this is now supposed to play out going forward. It just demonstrates how nuts politics are from time to time.
Why even engage and getting involved in this war in the first place, if you're not willing to complete and finish what you've already been up to?
So many lifes lost [on both sides], in stead of just letting the unmentional man take what he wants in the first place, if this is the outcome? Where is consistency and perseverance?
- - - o 0 o - - -
Zelensky met with the Nordic countries in Oslo today, and he was on a one-to-one meeting with my PM Mette Frederiksen [dressed totally in black today [<- !!??]]. For Denmark, she commited ~1 USD B in war support, does not change much. Agreed, but still far from enough.
Agree. It’s put up or shut up time.
-
^^^ Not bad @Parsad - the US is indeed a shitshow!
-
25 minutes ago, Luca said:
What do theses abortions and genocide have anything to do with what i said about chinas future? I am also literally on an investing board and think capitalism is brilliant, if it is made right.commie? You are saying this just to denounce arguments.
@Luca - nah - you just painted Islam with the broad brush of not feeling Chinese. Hence, the justification for forced abortions and concentration camps for Uyghurs.
Brilliant China - so much for religious freedom and individual tolerance- problem solved.
You keep up the cheerleading!
-
1
-
-
Just now, Luca said:
Yeah, they dont want to deal with islam and islam isnt particularly a peaceful or cooperative religion as can be seen by recent events. Those people probably dont identify themselves as chinese.
Especially those women they force to have abortions. Eliminate the race like good Nazis.@Luca I’ll put you down as a hardcore Commie!
-
37 minutes ago, Luca said:
You can find millions of people who love their country in china but the west only hears to the negative voices to continue their propaganda to create acceptance by the population for eventual military confrontation or further cut off from markets etc. I am waiting for bans on cheap china goods to save our local retailers because they cant compete. Consumers cant win and China just cant take marketshare!
Show me one of the several million Muslims, who are Chinese citizens- who love China.
How does one love his country from the inside of a labor/concentration camp??
-
35 minutes ago, Luca said:
Yes because in China the industrial revolution happened way later but they are making up for it now and as you can see with CCP communication, prosperity for everyone is important to their vision. @james22 I have linked OECD studies in here that showed this level of inequality is unhealthy for the economy, China is not socialist but they are less accepting of the level of "abuse" and elitism that exists in the US, for good reason, even a capitalist like Biden sees it now. And if you think that even more liberalization to markets and tax cuts for the wealthy will make the economy better for bottom and middle class i disagree and the research does too.
Regarding racism in china, yeah, might be, all power to them, their country, they decide who they let in. Kind of Jealous for them because the west is force feeded with migrants since a couple of years
Accepting of abuse and elitism???
Seriously? China is ALL about conformity and suppression of individual rights to the State.
BUT - I will grant you, with China Joe is charge - the US is headed that way!
-
You really love China @Luca !
There are 330 million citizens in the USA. There are far more Chinese citizens than 330M that live in POVERTY.
And of course, China is one of the most racist countries in the world.
Try being a Muslim or black in China. Talk about discrimination!
other than that the place is great
-
12 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:
I’ve literally never given a celebrity death a second thought, but then again none of them have ever truly impacted my life, certainly not in a positive way.
Could not have been better said! -
9 hours ago, Sweet said:
I remember that for a time it was heresy to say that covid would likely become less virulent over time. How dare we downplay covid was the line. Horrible people and a horrible time.+ 1 , We ended up being a bunch of suckers while we destroyed economies & livelihoods, and handed dishonest politicians unlimited power to overreach.
Never again
-
2 minutes ago, zippy1 said:
Rest in peace, Charlie.
My hero. A great, great human being.
-
30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
As I've said before - the reason we cant bring ourselves to give Ukraine the means to truly 'win' when you rightly point out we could in the morning......is that policy makers in Europe & the United States, if they are being honest, cant quite bring themselves to open up the pandora's box of downside risks for themselves that would occur if Russia actually truly loses here......think through what it would mean for Russia to be crushingly defeated........this is compounded by the reality that Ukraine has little strategic value to either the US or Europe. Russia is not a real threat to EU/US/NATO countries....they are struggling to hold on to what 20% of Ukraine...edge out regions from their own borders to boot......these folks who talk about Warsaw being next have Hitler delusions and no clue of Russia's true offensive military capability.....cliff notes....they are extremely limited as we are seeing in Ukraine. They would not last five days inside the border of NATO if that came to pass.
Also take a step back and realize that (1) this is war right on the border of the worlds largest nuclear power and so is it a good outcome to corner a nuclear rat on its border and (2) giving the means to Ukraine to push Russia back to its 2014 borders....is also the means by which the Russian borders itself can be breached by Ukraine. You might think we could tell them (Ukraine) to stand down when we want but revenge & blood lust is a terrible sickness and the risk that Ukrainian soldiers would rush into Russian villages and commit war crimes of revenge is not to be discounted.
Spinning the chaos wheel for a country of limited strategic value to the US and Europe - is a poor use of a spin of that wheel. The risk/reward is skewed towards chaos.
My guess is the West wants a settlement that has enough juice for both Zelensky AND Putin...lets call it a 75% win for Ukraine & a 25% win for Russia........the early 2022 border with an Oblast or two extra for the Russia column (likely in some kind of self-administrative zone structure so it isnt fully Russian) + non-NATO membership assurances is where this ends up.......if indeed it ever ends up with a piece of paper at all. Let's see.
I think this closer to reality. The capabilities is there to remove Russia, but I doubt the political will on the part of the West. And someone made an excellent point about who wins the US election.If the West starts bombing the Russian homeland and sinking the Black Sea fleet to cripple Russia, that will be a huge step and we may see a different side of Putin, like nukes.
Good discussions gentlemen.
-
2 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:
I think the answer to this question lies in the next election. if Nicki Haley wins, then Ukraine wins by force or by Putin suing for peace. if Biden wins, then I think Ukraine gets a slow drip of weapons to keep the status quo. And if Trump wins, the range of possibilities is endless.
The Biden Administration has slow-walked numerous armaments that would enable Ukraine to easily eject Russia beyond the pre-2014 borders. Examples include over 1,000 ATACMS (past their expiration date, "unusable" due to our BS policy on cluster munitions, and costing the taxpayer to decommission when instead it would be free to ram it down Russian's throats), 100 of thousands of DPCIM 155s remaining in US inventories domestically and abroad ("unusable" due to our BS policy on cluster munitions), 1000's of Bradley's and HMMVS that are being scrapped, 1000's of Abrams that are sitting around to either be scrapped or sent back to the plant for the next version of the Abrams tank, 100's of M1A1 Abrams that were recently given up by the USMC, and there is plenty more. We have over 200 Assault Breachers - based on the M1 chassis - literally the best mine-clearing engineering vehicle in the world - and we didn't give them any before they attacked the Surovkin line in the South. The whole reason these exist is for a ground war with a near-pear adversary. All of this equipment withheld or slow-walked because some spineless Administration members are worried about escalation, or because they make the false claim that this stuff is needed in case of war with China (it is not needed for a war with China).
And I am tired of hearing the BS about how the US can't release high-tech gear, or that we can't possibly weaken active duty units. We have a precedent - Nixon - of stripping active duty combat aircraft from front-line units and handing them over to Israel, along with other arms and munitions.
If the US wanted Ukraine to win, all of this stuff would be in Ukraine now and Ukraine would be stomping all over Russia. The war would probably be over by now.
I think you make a tremendous amount of sense. As an American, I’d like to see a massive commitment from Europe in parallel. But I have my doubts that military aid without significant outside manpower will do the trick.And of course, the American politics of this is crucial: you can’t easily get any of this without shutting down the southern border. Many Americans have realized that protecting Ukraine’s border is insane when we won’t or our own. That’s the present reality.
-
21 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
By end of 1916 the French had taken nearly 4 million casualties with around 900,000 dead from a total population of only 39M. The germans had tried to turn it into a war of attrition by attacking Verdun which they knew the French would never surrender, hoping to "bleed the french white". The allies counterattack at the Somme failed miserably. The Russian front had collapsed in 2015, Brusilov's brilliant surprise offensive in 2016 bogged down, and the Romanian entry on the Allied side was quickly crushed, doing little to rebuild hopes that Germany would have to divert more troops to the east.
We keep seeing things through the mirror of the recent past. A country unified in a fight for its very freedom is a powerful thing, and the citizenry is willing to tolerate a huge amount of sacrifice for a long period. I don't see Ukrainians ready to compromise for at least a couple more years.
Europe doesn't want Russia on Poland's border, or to have access to all of Ukraines resources. It just spells bigger problems in the future. I have confidence that the EU and Great Britain won't flag in their support of the Ukraine. And I have hopes that we will finally get off the pot and start providing full support from our massive supply of retired armor and air assets from storage as the administration stops trying to walk a tight rope between helping and not enraging Putin, realizing that the status quo is just grinding down the Ukrainians and leading to a longer and more disastrous war.
So are you saying that the Ukrainians are capable of removing Russia from The Donbas and Crimea??? You think they will push back the Russians to the pre-2014 borders?? -
1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Personally, I think you got this just exactly plain wrong, Mike [ @cubsfan ],
I think it must be clear for every European citizen by now that if you reach out for a hand shake with this person, you can't rely on what you agree with him about.
It's about the interactions between concepts of naivity, to believe in the best of every person, trustworthiness and its opposite, the concepts af consistency, reliability and integrity, thereby also the concept of "Your word", "Your promise" or "Your pledge".
The man does not qualify in any of these aspects or dimensions.
So : No deals. -Period.
John - regardless of words on paper - I just think you’re looking at a stalemate, whereby ejecting Russia from The Donbas & Crimea is close to impossible. I wish it were not so, but what happens when Ukraine depletes their manpower and the Europeans need to step in?? I don’t think it will happen.We will see.
-
1 hour ago, ValueArb said:
it’s funny that Putin okayed Ukraine joining NATO early in his tenure. At the time rebuilding the USSR was way down the list compared to cementing his control over Russia. It’s only after he was more secure in his power that Ukraine became “existential” to Russian “security”, ie rebuilding the Russian empire.There is no way Ukraine could ever negotiate any peace deal with Russia until it’s ejected from their territory. No promise from Putin can ever be trusted, any cease-fire or peace will just be used to restart FSB corruption of Ukrainian politicians and institutions, while rebuilding the Russian military for another final assault.
People who think Ukraine is in trouble should read their WW1 history. France took far more casualties in less time from a smaller population but kept at it for five years until the Germans were expelled. I’ve said it since the beginning is a 3-5 year war. We have contributed to lengthening it by being so slow to supply key weapons. Our military storage overflows with retired Abrams, Bradleys and F-16s we will never use that could have been supplied in large volumes well over a year ago. Instead we dribble out handfuls of weapons, just enough to keep Ukraine from being overwhelmed, ever enough to win.
A lot of this depends on how you define “territory “. If it means Ukraine reclaiming Crimea & Donbas - odds are slim Ukraine can ever pull that off . They just don’t have the manpower. When it comes to ejecting Russia from their own territory- how often has that happened? Those areas are effectively Russia now.The spring and summer offensive look like failures to me. Just being honest here. This looks like Stalingrad - and Russia can absorb way more punishment than Ukraine can, unfortunately. In a war of attrition, Russia has the advantage- I hate to say it.
I don’t see that Europe wants to be involved - so if Ukraine can push Russia to the pre-2020 borders - that may be the victory Ukraine gets.
-
26 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
The most important lesson of these internals comms make for anyone looking at the situation and thinking about the future of the conflict - is that irrespective of Putin......the Russian establishment more broadly cares deeply about Ukraine when they think of Russia's security architecture. It is as the US Ambassador to Russia said - the "brightest of red lines" for the Russian establishment.....Putin could die tomorrow and he is very very likely to be replaced by a leader with similar or even greater desire to dominant and control Ukraine/Belarus/Georgia for security reasons.
Its a point I made earlier in this thread and one that will become very very important as we lap the two year anniversary of the invasion with support already being questioned in Western capitals........and that is the question of staying power, perseverance & strategic importance.......and I'm more convinced than ever that Russia's perseverance around Ukrainian neutrality vis a vis NATO is effectively infinite given its strategic importance to them.
Infinite in the same way that the Taliban's perseverance to retake control of Afghanistan was - in the short run military might matters most..... the US controlled Afghanistan for 20yrs......in the long run perseverance matters most (the Taliban retook control in a matter of days once the US hightailed it out of there)......if we assume Russia and Ukraine's perseverance is equal as both are equally concerned with their security/survival.....then its a question of military might......Ukraine absent exogenous support, over time, is in trouble for this reason and will likely end up compromising on almost all fronts (EU/NATO/Oblasts).....the question now in my mind is the level of Ukrainian compromise required to bring things to a sustainable peace that will allow Ukraine to re-build and when is the optimal time to do that.
I won’t disagree at all. It’s looking more & more like a stalemate war of attrition. I hear lots of talk from Europe, but not too much action. But it’s been a hellavu high price for Russia- and I think they’re done taking European territory. -
On 11/25/2023 at 10:40 AM, changegonnacome said:
I was chatting over Thanksgiving with a friend in the foreign relations community and he flipped some US foreign comms links from 2008 that came out via wikileaks that might make interesting reading to those interested. I hadnt read them before.
- https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html
- "RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED"-
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW147_a.html
- "RUSSIA "LOSES" BUCHAREST"
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW1090_a.html
Finally he suggested I pick up this book from the US Ambassador to Russia from the late 2000's- William J Burns
The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal released in 2019-
https://www.amazon.com/Back-Channel-American-Diplomacy-Renewal/dp/0525508864
In the book apparently is a message Burns sent to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2008 which I think helps put in context the reason why Russia is not throwing in the towel in Ukraine any time soon even if Putin mysteriously died or was overthrown. Ukrainian non-nato membership & its place in Russia’s national security architecture is dogma in the Russian foreign policy establishment. Putin maybe change but that principal won’t.
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” -
William J. Burn's ,US Ambassador to Russia cable to Condoleeza Rice
It may be a redline for Putin, but he sure is paying dearly now. He probably got the message that anymore shenanigans with other European nations will be even more costly.
It’s unfortunate that events had to go this far for Russia’s neighbors to wake up. Better late than never, but much more costly.
Russia-Ukrainian War
in General Discussion
Posted
So true. To the victor go the spoils. At least Curtis saved millions of lives. A dirty, nasty job that someone had to do to end the war.