cubsfan
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Posts posted by cubsfan
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4 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Germany is the beneficiary of at least a trillion in US subsidies the last 70 years to rebuild it and protect it from the USSR and Russia. It leaving NATO would be great for the US, we could reduce NATO spending obligations by pulling our troops out and closing Ramstein, and use Germany as buffer space in the next big european war. While its being overrun would give us more time to align defenses for the rest of free europe.
Bingo! Good luck going it alone Germany! You will make the US taxpayers very, very happy.
How you pacifists underestimate Russia.
That's gratitude for you - too bad the Marshall Plan rebuilt Germany...
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15 minutes ago, gfp said:
in other "cannibal" news, eBay just reported a decent quarter and another $250m repurchase -
Gregmal knows how to pick 'em
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7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Pretty good 5 min summary from Michael Clark of the current situation:
Nice summary - he's a little soft on Zelensky though. He makes him sound like a freedom fighter, but I think the bloom is off the rose on the President.
Zelensky has suspended Habeas corpus, instituted martial law, outlawed political parties and elections, etc - so most of that is covered up - as you can't really criticize the guy as far as allies are concerned.
Personally, I'd like to see Ukraine get their US aid - but not without a secure US southern border, which is currently a catastrophe - and not too much to ask. Doesn't look like it will happen.
But any aid package needs to be audited as Ukraine is still among the most corrupt countries in the world. None of that is hard or too much to ask if you're giving a country $60B.
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10 hours ago, Jaygo said:
I didn't find his tone to be overly dour. Perhaps just cautious and a bit nostalgic for the days of KO and AMEX, higher returns and possibly fewer headaches.
Moreso I think he is making a statement on the juxtaposition of men and women working their asses off in freezing weather, scraping bodies off the tracks only to be manipulated by the Washington ( politicians, ESG dicks, WS ) elite with a stroke of a pen from the comfort of a taxpayer funded office.
I think the same goes for the capital and ingenuity of BHE and the like. If you want to unfairly punish the utility sector for political points enjoy sitting in the the dark, we will take our new capital elsewhere. The utility is mandated to provide power even in the most remote places but when storms, or fires hit these hard to service remote places the utility is on the hook for damages. People bitch when the power is out, bitch when the bill comes due and now litigate for freak accidents in areas where power lines probably shouldn't have been in the first place.
Yeah, I think this interpretation is how I read it. Politician want their cake and eat it too. Never would I have thought BHE or BNSF would be a poor place to re-invest given what they do for the country. His statements seem like a warning to regulators.
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^^^ You are pointing out that the DEI field is ripe for abuse, and that is correct. The abuse has been widespread, pernicious and worst of all institutionalized.
DEI is built on an illogical foundation. Dr Kendi's core solution to racism and racial discrimination is even more racism and racial discrimination.
The absurdity of this notion boggles the mind.
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^^^ DEI is having a difficult time, because people have figured out it is completely racist.
Everyone's DEI hero, Dr Ibram X Kendi's most famous quote: "The only remedy for past discrimination is present discrimination"
It's hardly a noble cause, and has been abused by race hustlers and has served to divide the country by categorizing groups by the color of their skin.
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More on Ukraine's manpower shortages :
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/
But because units lack troops, deployments get extended — or personnel intended for the rear get pressed into front-line duty despite being ill-prepared for it. Troops who are mentally and physically exhausted because of overwork sometimes can’t defend their posts, allowing Russia — with more manpower and ammunition — to advance.
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Well - looks like the good general is out - and a country wide purge is coming.
Somebody definitely has Zelensky's ear - let's hope he's not micromanaging the war, like
Uncle Adolf did against the Russians...
The replaced general, did not sound like a boob, given his popularity among the armed forces and population. Hopefully, Zelensky is not looking for a scapegoat.
Many of his comments in the article indicate:
- The 2023 spring offensive was a failure (shocker)
- Zelensky thinks he knows strategy better than the good general
- A lack of capable manpower (that's alarming)
- A wholesale change of the country's leadership is coming
Sounds like desperation to me. We will know soon enough - if Zelensky, with no military training actually knows what he's doing.
Good luck Ukraine!
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^^^ Ok, got it. Agree on the stalemate.
This article, if true, discusses the extreme popularity of the General among the armed forces and the population. And a larger purge of the government. So it may get rough.
Notably - the admission of stalemate and manpower shortages are alarming from a government that would never accept the word stalemate.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-zaluzhny-stalemate-b2490755.html
“I mean a replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military,” Mr Zelensky said."
“Zaluzhny has his reputation as an iron general, the embodiment of the Ukrainian armed forces that saved this country against an enemy as fearsome as Russia. Zaluzhny personally has the support of 88 per cent of Ukrainians. 97 per cent of Ukrainians trust the armed forces under his command,”
In December last year, Mr Zelensky claimed General Zaluzhny had requested the president mobilise an additional half a million Ukrainian civilians to counter Russia’s manpower advantage. Gen Zaluzhny denied that figure, but he has stated the need to mobilise more troops since.
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This can't be good news for Ukraine. Replacing your top general and looking at a purge of your government when you are in the middle of a major war?
Sounds like desperation and a soft coup in the making:
https://visegradinsight.eu/if-zaluzny-is-out-who-could-become-ukraines-next-commander-in-chief/
It sounds like General Zaluzny is resisting the move and has not left his post?? Anyone know?
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^^^ I can't argue with anything you say. But an open border is certainly not a solution to the drug trade. Why in the world would you just give up and make it easier for Mexican cartels?
100,000 deaths a year is a catastrophe. Shit we only lost 7000 in decades of war in Iraq/Afghanistan.
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^^^ 100,000 Americans a year, mostly young, die from Fentynal poisoning. Most of these illegal immigrants are victims of rape and child traffickers (cartels). So let's keep enriching the cartels - shall we? Keep the open border, all your Fentanyl comes from China via Mexican Cartel labs, and keep the child traffickers coming. That's a great solution.
And I said - the biggest victims of the uncontrolled immigration are the poor and middle class (blacks & hispanics). You made my point.
And of course, you make the case for the huge demand for social services needed in this country: crime control, mental illness, homelessness, veteran's services, better schools, etc.
But let's divert all that potential funding for illegal immigrants.
You don't live in Chicago, LA, SF, Central Valley of California, NY, etc, etc. The mayors and Al Sharpton, etc - couldn't be more clear about the problem.
And what you complete dismiss: Trump closed the border in about 60 days. It was simple and worked brilliantly. All the naysayers said it couldn't be done, walls don't work, etc - all that was nonsense and proved wrong.
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Immigration is a wonderful thing - when it's meritocratic, legal and controlled - not out of control.
No one hates immigrants or their contributions. Currently, the notion of US citizenship is being destroyed - whereby its citizens have no say in who comes here. The cultural melting pot worked because immigrants assimilated into American ideals, obeyed it's laws and earned their citizenship. That no longer exists. As far as the American Dream - when your cities, schools, hospitals, parks are overrun, overburdened and crime filled - the country has turned it's back on her Citizens.
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It's a shame. There is a point where you'd like to keep the culture the US has, largely intact.
So I guess US citizens have no say in retaining the culture they built??
Currently, France has massive social problems because of unchecked immigration.
You can be sure the average French citizen regrets a lot about what happening.
But we're not supposed to care here??
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6 minutes ago, thowed said:
Wow, I sure missed the Politics Board...................................................
Aren't ALL Americans immigrants?
So no reason for borders? What's the point?
How's that working in Europe?
Why isn't Canada opening their borders for 2M per year?
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A country can handle only so much immigration and assimilation at a time - that is the major problem.
The poor are an enormous drain on services provided to our own disadvantaged population.
No one is against immigration, but when you are primarily bring in totally unskilled families, you are killing your own country at the same time. It's an enormous burden that is supported. Otherwise, how in the world could Mayor Adams say this will cost the city $12B?? It's paid by the taxpayers and it's certainly NOT an investment - it's a burden that is taxed.
To make it worse - you let in criminals and make cartels/gangs rich.
The US is basically an escape valve for Mexico - whereby they can export their social problems.Europe is basically destroying itself through unchecked immigration - and it's happening here.
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The problem is with the President's core constituencies - blacks & hispanics. They put him in office.
And then he fucked them. He told them their lives would improve - and they have gone backward.
They understand for a year, maybe. But when it goes on a dive for 4 years - they know they have
been screwed. Those groups pay the biggest price for unchecked immigration and destruction of
the cities. When they turn on him - it will be because he failed to keep his promises.
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33 minutes ago, gfp said:
My biggest forward looking concern about inflation is a Trump presidency. Trade wars, tariffs, deglobalization, tighter immigration. I would add replacing Jay Powell if I thought the Federal Reserve had anything to do with inflation.
Closing the Southern Border will be the key issue for the election. The current administration is killing the black community - and they are furious that their social services, parks, hospitals, schools, etc are being destroyed by President Biden. When Biden loses the black community and the southern states that are getting killed by immigration - they are going to look for a change to this disaster.
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^^ A great story, and testament to CoBF. Well done Prasad & Dealraker.
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The best thing about Twitter is the ability to get the other side of the story out quickly when the mainstream media censors news they do not like. Elon's done a good job of allowing both sides of the story, whether he ever makes money or not.
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3 hours ago, Xerxes said:
we should not compare wars of 60 years ago to today’ realities.
Hitler did not build the German war machine on its own. He inherited a highly industrial juggernaut of a nation steeped in military traditions. Hitler or not, the Prussian military caste would have had its revenge. It just got far worse than needs be with the madman at the helm.it is never all about the effectiveness. Those 190,000 troops occupy perhaps a fifth of Ukraine, but had an outsize role in reshaping the geopolitics for years to come, regardless of their effectiveness to take Kiev or not in early 2022.
A lot of people on this board and Twitter enjoy making scorecard of things Russia lost by going in Ukraine in 2022. All of which are quantifiable and probably correct and accurate. But there is a key point. As that is a very Western point of view as to what is important. Geopolitics is not about running NPVs.
The real question to ask is: Does Kremlin prefer its situation in 2024 or in pre-2022 era ? Understanding that Kremlin does not work for the Russian people. It never did in recent times.
Really, we should never forget Russia’s capacity to endure hardship. Russia lost 10 million soldiers in WWII. Displacing them from their current gains will be no picnic. -
13 minutes ago, Libs said:
So there's been talk of Russia taking on NATO, which on the surface sounds preposterous, just given the overwhelming power of NATO forces relative to Russia. But what if, instead of taking on all of NATO, they nibbled at the corners, so to speak, in a such a way that the NATO members say to themselves: "I'm not risking our soldiers / WW3 breaking out by fighting for X."
In other words, the plan is to destroy NATO by exposing it as toothless. Then, over time, Russia starts to take the smaller / weaker countries.
This guy explains it. The example he gives is a remote outpost in Finland with little strategic value to anyone. Technically, it's a violation of Article 5 if Russia takes a small slice. Will that be worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?
What do you guys think?
I think European leaders are starting to freak. The war is not going well , and Europe is faced with the prospect of sending more arms and possibly men if Russia is to be contained. -
3 minutes ago, dipod said:
The current price level of the QQQ and NVDA makes no logical or rational sense to me.
AI hype?
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3 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
Charlie always sounded like he was miserable really when he was interviewed. He never sounded happy like Buffett. Charlie probably could have used a big house or something to make him more happy.
I think you have this all wrong really. I know someone that knows the Munger's real well, met with Charlie several time, the last year or so. Other than the old age aches & pains - Charlie was really happy. He was always surrounded by family & helpers that loved him. He had daily meetings with very interesting people all day long. He certainly has a beautiful house in Pasadena and also in Santa Barbara & as GFP said, Star Island, MN. Charlie loved the mental stimulation of interesting people and also was constantly meeting with lots of young people.
This was not an unhappy or unfulfilled guy.
Russia-Ukrainian War
in General Discussion
Posted
^^^ Luca - somehow you seem to think that Freedom is free. And somehow the world is safe again.
It wasn't that long ago that a good portion of Germany was under Soviet control.
How foolish to think it can not happen again. But IF you feel that Germany is indeed a "US Puppet",
then I hope you get your wish and you can go it alone - without NATO.
I doubt the Baltic states & Poland feel the same way.