boilermaker75

What do you think the price of your home is to the gross rental you could get? I've heard the rule of thumb is to buy at 10 and sell at 20.

As Charles Ellis has pointed out, investing is a "loser's" game. His analogy it to tennis. The one who wins the tennis match is not the one who hits the most winning shots, but the one who hits the fewest losing shots.

Bill Miller had $200 million of Bear Sterns. He gave a short talk the morning of March 14, 2008 explaining why Bear Sterns was a good investment. As he was talking Bear Sterns was crashing. LOL! Yeah, I remember that. Alot of things were crashing, while alot of people were talking in 2008, though. He's long Groupon, so let's see if that was a canary in the coal mine in a year or two. Cheers! Yes a lot of people were talking the line Bill Miller was. Just a few weren't. Steve Eisman spoke right after Miller. The title of his talk was "This Time is Different" and he talked about the greatest deleveraging in history was about to happen. Eisman made a lot of money the next few days.

Bill Miller had $200 million of Bear Sterns. He gave a short talk the morning of March 14, 2008 explaining why Bear Sterns was a good investment. As he was talking Bear Sterns was crashing.

I've read these and they are good. I have not read Damn Right, but it is on my wish list at AMZN.

I don't understand using a probability. Here is what I do with a specific example. This morning I wrote 67.5 strike March 16 puts on NOV. I wrote them for $61 a contract. My commission per contract worked out to be $0.39. So I cleared $60.61 per contract. So if I get put to I have to pay $6,750-$60.61 = $6,689.39 per hundred shares. Note I use IB and there is no commission on purchases when I am put to. So my "annual return" is ($60.61/$6,689.39)*100*(365/4) = 82.68% Shouldn't it be (1+$60.61/$6689.39)^(365/4)-1=127%? yes, thanks for correcting. So I am doing even better than I thought, lol!

I don't understand using a probability. Here is what I do with a specific example. This morning I wrote 67.5 strike March 16 puts on NOV. I wrote them for $61 a contract. My commission per contract worked out to be $0.39. So I cleared $60.61 per contract. So if I get put to I have to pay $6,750-$60.61 = $6,689.39 per hundred shares. Note I use IB and there is no commission on purchases when I am put to. So my "annual return" is ($60.61/$6,689.39)*100*(365/4) = 82.68%

Why calculate returns based on collateral requirements? I don't think that makes a lot of sense. You're not doing that when you buy stocks or bonds right? I'd say calculate returns based on capital at risk. In my response above what I meant I do for calculating my effective annual percent return is % return = [{(net put premium)/(strike price-net put premium)}*100]*(365/days to expiration)

That was a high tuition cost for your friend. The first gate has to be the price at which you would get put to you would have a large margin of safety. If that is not the case walk away.

I write puts, usually slightly out-of-the money, on stocks that I feel are well below IV. Historically I probably get put to approximately 5% of the time and those are positions I am glad to have. (I am close to 80% invested and all my positions are a result of being put to.) For what I am doing I don't worry about risk of exercise. So I calculate my return based on premium to the collateral required. If the current underlying stock is below IV, I would like to know what put would give you 10.5% annual return with an additional 30% MOS.

I like this site. http://www.academicearth.org/ Many great university courses you can watch for free. This one will probably not appeal to most here, but if you are of the technical/semiconductor bent, https://nanohub.org/groups/u

I don't have any I would lever up on, but companies I have been writing puts the last couple of weeks, NOV at 65-67.5, APPL at 410-440, AIG at 37.50-38, WFC at 35 and below, and BAC at 11-12. I only write puts at prices and companies I would be happy to be put to. If BRK would pull back I would be happy to start writing puts at 92 and below.

Like, "Hey babe, let's go for a BRK out BAC...I've got some POT?" I've never tried it, but there's always a first time... ROFLMA

How could you pass up the chance of performing in the CBS Follies? http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/Follies/Welcome.html My favorite

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2013/02/25/5-gut-checks-before-the-stock-markets-opening-bell-10/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/03/does-anne-hathaway-news-drive-berkshire-hathaways-stock/72661/

No, but maybe 15% per year, which I think is good since I have a full time job.

No, but maybe 15% per year.

You did not need to know BRK's value when it was trading at BV to know it was trading well below IV and a great buy.

I get the movie reference, but not one I wanted to be reminded of!

What was the recent hit to operating cash flow of "other working capital" (1,340M), and hence to FCF? Some one time event? I know I could pull up the quarterly reports but from your post I figured you have the answer. I had a few minutes to glance at the last 10-Q. It looks like acquisitions caused a big part of the hit to the TTM FCF, In the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the Company completed twelve acquisitions for an aggregate purchase price of $2,305 million, net of cash acquired. These acquisitions included: • The shares of NKT Flexibles I/S (“NKT”), a Denmark-based designer and manufacturer of flexible pipe products and systems for the offshore oil and gas industry, acquired on April 4, 2012. • The shares of Enerflow Industries Inc. (U.S.) and certain assets of Enerflow Industries Inc. (Canada) (“Enerflow”), a Canada-based fabricator and manufacturer of pressure pumping, blending, and cementing equipment for use primarily in Canada and the U.S., acquired on May 16, 2012. • The shares of Wilson Distribution Holdings (“Wilson”), a U.S.-based distributor of pipe, valves and fittings as well as mill, tool and safety products and services, acquired on May 31, 2012. • The shares of CE Franklin Ltd. (“CE Franklin”), a Canada-based distributor of pipe, valves, flanges, fittings, production equipment, tubular products and other general oilfield supplies to oil and gas producers in Canada as well as to the oil sands, refining, heavy oil, petrochemical, forestry and mining industries, acquired on July 19, 2012. So without these acquisitions the FCF for the TTM would be about $2B? Anyone been following these acquisitions? Was this a good use of cash? TIA.

petey, What is he going to buy next?

There is an In-N-Out Burger right next to UCLA. I wonder if Warren drove through?

I did a double take on that too! Back when Larry Auriana had some hair! Exactly. There are so many things in here that are great. The whole Iomega craze from Motley Fool. I remember all anyone wanted to talk about was their zip drive or whatever it was called. What was it, the "Jazz" or something? People standing in the lobbies of brokerages just watching the ticker symbols go by. Of course the more things change, the more they stay the same. That period led to some entertaining commercials,

What was the recent hit to operating cash flow of "other working capital" (1,340M), and hence to FCF? Some one time event? I know I could pull up the quarterly reports but from your post I figured you have the answer.

Claude Shannon and John Kelly applied information theory to making money in games of chance or trading. Here is link to Kelly's paper, http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly.pdf Kelly originally titled his paper "Information Theory and Gambling," but was persuaded by AT&T to change it, which he did to "A New Interpretation of Information Rate." More readable, and entertaining, is Fortune's Formula, http://www.amazon.com/Fortunes-Formula-Scientific-Betting-Casinos/dp/0809045990/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1360715178&sr=1-1&keywords=fortune%27s+formula