muscleman

It’s checking account is one of the best I can find, but it’s savings sucks. I wonder if anyone is using their brokerage account to park the cash for their rainy day funds, and somehow has a yield similar to a decent savings account? For example, invest in some money market mutual funds that they offer with close to no risk? Right now some good banks like CIT or citibank offer 2.3 APY. But Schwab’s SNSXX (short term treasury money market fund) yield is only 1.7%.

your statement suggests that price will not move until material news comes out. Check the chart in March and ask why the stock started a strong rally days before the White House initiative was released? I think the stock started a strong rally because multiple news outlets were reporting the the trump administration was releasing a plan soon. It was being discussed up to a week ahead of time if I remember correctly plus you had the Calabria confirmation process going on and the Otting comments. The most recent time that the preferred moved up was just recently when material information again...regarding an upcoming release of the plan was coming after labor day. Maybe my memory was messed up, but I do not recall any news on the trump admin's plan. It suddenly came out. I remember Chris commented that this was a game changer on that day. Unlike that move up, this recent move up has been a low quality one, so be careful. I am not long yet. I think odds are lower this time than last time. So even if I go long again, I'll bet a smaller size this time.

your statement suggests that price will not move until material news comes out. Check the chart in March and ask why the stock started a strong rally days before the White House initiative was released?

I bet big players already know the details of the plan. It must have been reviewed by lots of people in this admin, which is known for leaky news.

beat me to it. but 100% margin is god's way of telling you to chill true but no one currently has 100% in this. Let’s say someone has 50% of his folio in BRK.B and 50% in this, then he can lend out his BRK shares to get the margin loan to buy more FNMAS. But come on... why are people discussing this? I’ve seen countless times when inexperienced investors are myopia on only one scenario, the one that makes him money. They never bother to consider alternatives, and when people present a different view, they get pissed.

The TA readings have slightly improved but I wouldn’t turn bullish yet.

Didn't T-rex say the same thing when the rumor came out? Then after a few months, he left. Same for John Kelly.

Is every decline of this magnitude and duration attributable to big players trying to get out quietly? At what point can you tell that the trend has reversed? I can see this being plausible but not actionable; things could eventually turn around (we have seen declines like this in the past) and I don't see a way to tell in real time when it has happened. If Maloni is perceived to be such a "whack job", why would his rumor, and apparently only his rumor, have been enough to propel FNMAS to $14 in the first place? Variant perceptions. Maloni is perceived by me to be a whack job but that doesn’t mean everyone thinks his is a whack job. Look at the day when he posted the Collins rumor and stock jumped. Volume was low that day. Not many believers. I don’t see a bottom yet. I base my decisions on the news flow posted here and my feeling of the chart. I’ll let you know when I think a bottom is in. But honestly I don’t have good skills for bottoms. I spent lots of time studying tops, but not much time on bottoms.

You have to be careful of "buying low sell high" when you see negative news and stock declines. It can keep going on for a long time. The smart guys have been selling since June. I could guess that someone knows Maloni is such a whack job that he's willing to spread any rumors for free to get famous, so they just fed him the Collins rumor, which pumped the stock to 14, and then they started selling day after day since then.

Where'd you hear that? Thanks in advance. Why are we giving so much credibility to this? Sounds like gossip to me. Since Trump got elected since 2017, I originally was highly suspicious of the rumors between white house officials and Trump being the fake news trying to make up stories. Unfortunately after two years, I realized that all these fake news rumors regarding each official's conflict with Trump and resignation rumors later turned out to be true. Therefore I think there is a high possibility that Mnuchin is indeed considering this.

But what if there is no money in the process, but just a big player telling his best buddy analyst how much he loved this stock and would like this analyst to share with the world about this great opportunity to make money? Then two days later he “changed” his mind and started selling?

Thank you. That would definitely be concerning if he were to leave prior to plan being implemented. This may explain why my TA reading suddenly went from neutral to negative last week.

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add. I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example. Checkout this twit: ACG Analytics @ACGAnalytics Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients? I previously said I'd stop sharing my TA view because I knew people are gonna get pissed off. There were a few folks who said it was helpful so I posted again, and this time it upsets even more people. So I guess it is time for me to stop making this thread "laughable". Good luck guys! I think we are at a critical juncture and the bullish setup scenario isn't dead, but I assign it a 30% probability. if an institutional investor asked a competent securities lawyer about the conduct you just described, the II would be advised that this is market manipulation under the securities exchange act of 1934. I am not saying the conduct you described doesn't happen, it is just that the II would be engaging in unlawful behavior. but I dont understand your basic point. block trades get publicly reported. there is no dark underground unreported securities market. Got it thank you. Yeah I wasn't sure if there could be block trades not reported. My understanding is that they can't, and dark pool trades are required to be reported after market close. My point is that someone might have known something negative and started selling, even though they may not have finished selling, based on the dwindling volume. While technical indicators like two moving average crossing each other is complete junk, there are valuable ones that could give you a tip off. For example, count the number of shares each day when bid was hit vs ask was hit. That tells you if there are motivated sellers. And if you see that going on continuously for weeks, you know something is not right. My question on what you said regarding "unlawful behavior", does the law say if Kyle Bass or whatever publicly stated that he is very bullish about this, then within how many days, he could not sell his own position? I have very limited knowledge about the law, but I kinda feel like this is a grey area that's not clearly defined, and it leaves room for these guys to take dirty actions.

Chris, do you know if a Dem appointed judge in one of those 16 judges could strategically drag the ruling past 2020?

They’ve been publicly bullish since end of last year, and you were quite bullish early this year. So now that the stock has fallen, you think their subsequent bullish comments are bearish? Aren’t you contradicting yourself here? Or at least confusing TA with FA no. If you check my prior posts. I made three trades this year. When I bought at mid 9.6 area and a few days later this ACG video came out, I sold the next day, and only booked a marginal profit.

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add. I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example. Checkout this twit: ACG Analytics @ACGAnalytics Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients? I previously said I'd stop sharing my TA view because I knew people are gonna get pissed off. There were a few folks who said it was helpful so I posted again, and this time it upsets even more people. So I guess it is time for me to stop making this thread "laughable". Good luck guys! I think we are at a critical juncture and the bullish setup scenario isn't dead, but I assign it a 30% probability.

I think the ACG video could be a pump and dump scheme to support some big players to continue to unload. I do agree with everything she said though, but I've been consistent wrong on my FA......... . The "big players" have been in it since the beginning and show no signs of getting out without a resolution. I don't care who exactly it is. I trust my chart reading skills and it tells me big players are unloading. And for those waiting for the September treasury plan, I have to ask you this: Do you think there is still some opportunity for information arbitrary? Isn't it already well known that Treasury will have a plan released in early September, and it is supposed to be good? There is nothing in the charts to suggest "big players" are unloading. The volume the last couple of months outside of a couple of days would not let a big player out without crashing the price even in the most liquid FNMAS. That statement is twaddle. Again this is not a FA or chart "trade". The keys are Treasury plan, FHFA capital standards, 4th Amendment/NWS then recap. Each along the way may bump % of par value but final value will likely be realized in the days following the recap plan release. Didnt we already go over this?....and what big player would be unloading right before the fireworks go off? That's ridiculous IMO. For better or worse if you have made the decision to invest in this why would you get out right before the most anticipated 3-6 months in this whole saga? I look at 200 charts a day, so that’s how I get a feel of how things may play out. I agree with what you said “what bigger players would be selling right before a immediate huge catalyst”? That’s true, but the charts show they are selling. So could it be possible that they are smarter than us and they now expect something not as bullish as you and me are expecting? Big players don’t use a market order to get out with one click of a mouse. If you don’t understand how big players get in and out of a position, you may call TD AM’s institutional desk and ask them how to trade large quantities. I didn’t know anything like this until I called them for fun one day and then started to understand why sometimes charts show certain patterns.

I think the ACG video could be a pump and dump scheme to support some big players to continue to unload. I do agree with everything she said though, but I've been consistent wrong on my FA......... . The "big players" have been in it since the beginning and show no signs of getting out without a resolution. I don't care who exactly it is. I trust my chart reading skills and it tells me big players are unloading. And for those waiting for the September treasury plan, I have to ask you this: Do you think there is still some opportunity for information arbitrary? Isn't it already well known that Treasury will have a plan released in early September, and it is supposed to be good? There is nothing in the charts to suggest "big players" are unloading. The volume the last couple of months outside of a couple of days would not let a big player out without crashing the price even in the most liquid FNMAS. That statement is twaddle. Again this is not a FA or chart "trade". The keys are Treasury plan, FHFA capital standards, 4th Amendment/NWS then recap. Each along the way may bump % of par value but final value will likely be realized in the days following the recap plan release. Didnt we already go over this?....and what big player would be unloading right before the fireworks go off? That's ridiculous IMO. For better or worse if you have made the decision to invest in this why would you get out right before the most anticipated 3-6 months in this whole saga? No I’ve been doing this long enough that I am no longer an ego driven investor who constantly need to prove to other people that I am right. And no, i am not hoping the stock would go lower so I can buy low. I am a momo trader who will only buy if the stock already goes up.

infornation arb means some info you know but most others don’t know. This does not seem to apply here as I assume pretty much every single preferred holder is saying expecting the treasury plan in early September.

I think the ACG video could be a pump and dump scheme to support some big players to continue to unload. I do agree with everything she said though, but I've been consistent wrong on my FA......... . The "big players" have been in it since the beginning and show no signs of getting out without a resolution. I don't care who exactly it is. I trust my chart reading skills and it tells me big players are unloading. And for those waiting for the September treasury plan, I have to ask you this: Do you think there is still some opportunity for information arbitrary? Isn't it already well known that Treasury will have a plan released in early September, and it is supposed to be good?

I think the ACG video could be a pump and dump scheme to support some big players to continue to unload. I do agree with everything she said though, but I've been consistent wrong on my FA.........

Because they will have more capital than that by then!!! ;) But in all seriousness that is a good catch. What I just said was not really facetious, just optimistic. Good catch! That's really interesting! It seems like a stop from treasury draw by NWS is already expected by everyone

Why is it useless? I already said I moved from 50/50 to 70% bearish. Could this come from disappointing treasury plan or could this come from Collins or could this come from something else that we have not even account for? I won't know.

Mm lets see you put some odds on each of these. I can assign an overall bullish/bearish odds, but for these specific events, come on, I have no clue how to analyze those, and as I said, I read my TA, and make up the story for the FA.

So you think as long as the treasury plan exists, it has to be bullish and make preferred to par quickly? Can there be a case where the plan requires 8 years to get preferreds to par? Or can the plan be in such a huge resistance by the big banks that it is not able to raise the equities, and it was forced to be delayed over and over? The IBankers want the IPO fee for sure, but if they could kill it and take over, the longer term profits are much greater. Could they be trying this and delaying it post 2020 to see if they can get a Democratic president in and give them what they wanted? Is it time for MM and Emily to go hit up the gym? It is pretty insulting to put me in the same rank as Emily.