hyten1
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Posts posted by hyten1
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meiroy
i don't think you necessarily need to know what the technology will be, considering:
- storage tech don't change overnight (scale, suppliers, install base, etc etc)
- valuation of STX and WDC
- hd/storage tech/business has been through a lot, and has come long way
- fundamentally you need storage there are only a handfull or players (now sure new tech can come along, refer to point #1)
not saying wdc etc is perfect or the best investment (i am still researching) but this narrative of SSD is going to kill HD has been talk about for so long, doesn't mean it can't happen soon, but i don't see it happening anything soon
also its not like WDC has been tunnel vision and just focus being a "hard drive company", WDC sells lots of SSD products as well as hybrids.
also look at the valuation at some point all the worries above are less of a worry.
hy
hy
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just a quick comment (too lazy to write a long post), but some things to think about
- ItsAValueTrap - everything you wrote is known, nothing new, they are common thoughts and thinking that is almost part of the investment consciousness. Not saying they are not right. But its things like this that make me think, is the common thoughts incorrect if so then we got a good opportunity here.
- think of railroads, railroad for the longest time was a bad business, dieing, no one want it, it was left for dead, until the fundamental nature of the business change, people who notice it early made a killing, WEB notice it, a little later than some. not saying the HD/storage space is exactly the same senario, but it the first analogy i can come up with.
- now is WDC/STX a harddrive company or storage company? now if they are harddrive company i would walk away immediately.
- fundamentally storage is here to stay, someone/some company will provide storage, the storage might be in the form of HD, solid state, or whatever.... the key is be dominate as THE STORAGE company.
- now, is WDC/STX a storage or HD company? If so why, if not why not.
hy
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just a quick comment (too lazy to write a long post), but some things to think about
- ItsAValueTrap - everything you wrote is known, nothing new, they are comment thoughts and thinking that is almost part of the investment consciousness. Not saying they are not right. But its things like this that make me think, is the common thoughts incorrect if so then we got a good opportunity here.
- think of railroads, railroad for the longest time was a bad business, dieing, no one want it, it was left for dead, until the fundamental nature of the business change, people who notice it early made a killing, WEB notice it, a little later than some. not saying the HD/storage space is exactly the same senario, but it the first analogy i can come up with.
- now is WDC/STX a harddrive company or storage company? now if they are harddrive company i would walk away immediately.
- fundamentally storage is here to stay, someone/some company will provide storage, the storage might be in the form of HD, solid state, or whatever.... the key is be dominate as THE STORAGE company.
- now, is WDC/STX a storage or HD company? If so why, if not why not.
hy
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i think people should call it what it is, raising taxes on the so call rich (why so much talk on this topic when we both know this won't solve the problem) as "Getting Even".
i agree just because it'll only raise 10% or whatever the % is we should not ignore it, but so much time/media/talk in on this topic, when we know this won't solve the issue, if its not "getting even" what is it?
the 80/20 rule we all know, the big problem is the spending, not revenue.
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I always find this train of thought as idiotic:
"in the past years the tax rate was higher, so it should be ok to raise them since during clinton years the economy was doing great"
the same thought can be made against raising taxes by using gov spend as a percentage of gdp.
"Since during boom years america was growing and everyone was prosperous, the gov spend only 10 or 15% of GDP, so why can't we go back to spending only 10 or 15% gdp today since during those time the economy was great, you can argue even better than the late 90's, for example the 50's"
both are idiotic, but i hear the first one all the time by people who want to raise taxes, web's article is no exception
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here is gov spend as percentage of gdp
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_20th_century_chart.html
not the question is at what point is it too high, to illustrate the gov tend to get larger it in its nature
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i hope no one here think that ONE PARTY is ALWAYS the good one and other the bad (which every party you are for).
I am going to bring this up to illustrate the thought process that i have gone through, please ignore it since is not really relavent to the econmoic discussion we are having.
But to illustrate EVERYTHING is usually not black and WHITE. I truely think if you think your brand of economic theory is the ultimate and only solution (raise taxes, supply side whatever) is simply wrong.
For example, the idea of for and against abortion.
For me personally when i was younger (i am not that old right now) I always thought "The woman should have the right to decide when she should abort, especially when kids born to a family that doesn't want him/her the statistics are not so great etc etc. ... "
But as i gotten older and have had a few kids. The answer to the abortion question is not quite so simply.
I mean the baby AFTER ALL IS A HUMAN being, I assume no one agrees to the FACT the mother can decide to abort at any point in time (to illustrate a point at 9 month pregenant).
So the question come down to not sure much as "Its the womans body she can decide what she wants to do". Its more like at what point does the cells consider a human being balance that idea with the woman having the right to decide to abort.
The abortion issue is never as clear cut as people make it out to be and BOTH side have their points. The solution is usually somewhere in the middle
In regards to raising tax on the rich or not, honestly I have my thought, but typing it out would be too long, the sort point is
1) First I am always warey of government (not saying we don't need them etc) but I am always skeptical
2) Gov has the tendency to get larger (its the nature of things), politician make a lot of promises
3) lets make sure we spend the money wisely before asking other to pay more
4) not saying we don't raise taxes, but i like to make sure the money are well spend before giving someone more money.
Also i always hear the argument, "Oh during so and so years the tax are higher so, its no be deal", this idea has so many flaws.
i hope no one thinks the only thing going on that is affecting the market is taxes (not considering what else is going on)
hy
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well it would have to be one of the handful of stocks pabrai currently holds through his fund
my pick is either gm, bac or gs
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i was just curious, anyone every read anything about what buffett was doing/thinking during the 87 crash?
i don't recall reading any reference to it, i wonder if its just me being uninform
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has anyone done any research/breakdown of the class of real estate shld possesses? simons are mostly class A I believe and that makes a difference.
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well i have been using options to get premium
i usually sell options for stocks that i have a long thesis on but the prices are not to my liking or i use it for something more speculative
but i sell long term puts at very low strike prices (usually half of current stock prices). i also only do this obviously for stocks that i wouldn't mind owning and the puts are selling at 10% or greater relative to the strike price
this doesn't happen very often but i get it every now and then to generated an extra 1 to 2% of return
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rkbabang
i am with you, i would love to have a volt or model s to play with (its cool)
but i am too cheap to pay for them :)
at least at the current prices.
hy
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rkbabang,
i don't see how you compare volt to a 15k car, volt is not a traditional car. (its like comparing when first cell phone came out, its so big and heavy look at my traditional phone its better, but you forget the cell phone is mobile)
maybe because of the chevy badge (one reason i bought up corvette, its a 100k car)
to say volt compare to a 15k is similar (looks, size, comfort, etc etc) you forgot the ONE main reason volt exists, the electric plugin, the price premium is definitely not for everyone.
also we need to compare apples with apples sure you can argue you don't want to pay the price premium but doesn't mean others won't.
as for the toyota prius at 23k, that is the base model and its not a electric plugin, toyota prius model that is electric plugin is 40k (after rebate is $32k similarly price to volt)
hy
rkbabang
GM must have a very bad perception in the market, you are using 15k car to compare to Volt!?
even toyota prius cost 23k to 28k
Not GM, so much as the Volt. Compare the two vehicles in any metric you wish, looks, size, comfort, features, luxury, performance, or total cost of ownership. The $15K car comes up as better or just as good in each one. As far as the Prius goes, I don't really understand why anyone would choose to buy one of those either, but $23K is much more reasonable a starting price. It at least puts it in spitting distance of similarly featured/equipped cars.
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rkbabang
GM must have a very bad perception in the market, you are using 15k car to compare to Volt!?
even toyota prius cost 23k to 28k
volt cost 32k after rebate
http://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/volt/2012/consumer-reviews.html
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11723219/1/all-electric-cars-are-not-the-same-volt-vs-leaf.html
hy
rkbabang
you'll be surprise what cars are being compare to when people buy a volt (considering its 32k price tag).
hy
I'm sure I would. But if you look at it rationally. Comparing size, comfort, performance, and total cost of ownership. The Volt will lose to cars that are anywhere from $10K to $17K cheaper. How could you buy a Volt over a Corrolla or an Elantra, or even a Chevy Cruze? I can't think of a single metric where the Volt wins, other than the "look at me I drive an electric vehicle" factor. I don't think that is a good long term strategy. I think you are correct they should have gone after the high end market where people can afford the premium and introduce a Chevy when the costs had come down to compete with similar gas vehicles on something other than environmental-bragging rights. I don't think many middle-class people can't afford to pay double for a vehicle just to wear their environmentalism on their sleeves. A 10-15% premium, maybe, but not double.
I think Tesla is positioning itself correctly. Targeting the performance/luxury sedan market with a premium vehicle, that is desirable in its own right, at a premium price. I know starting a new car company isn't the easiest thing in the world to do, but with a little luck they could just pull this off. I'm not investing (too risky), but wouldn't short it right now either. If I invested at all in Tesla it would be with some long term calls. A small enough amount where I wouldn't care if they ended up worthless. That just might payoff much better than expected. Where shorting it, might just cost you a lot more than expected.
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rkbabang,
i think you are being a little to rational
volt was the latest great toy/car, its a electric car that you can plug in, people looking at a economy 15k car will not look at a volt.
also remember chevy has corvette which can cost over 100k.
i am not part of GM insider so i don't know for sure, but i highly doubt GM's strategy long term is to sell a high prices EV that has a chevy badge on it. also don't forget the nissan leaf (which is not cheap either and its purely electric)
This is 1st or 2nd ining for electric cars.
Over time cost will come down etc.
also GM (its been in the works) to release in 2014 Cadillac model base on the volt technology.
i am not shorting tsla nor do i own it (i might sell a very small amount of way out of the money puts)
hy
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rkbabang
i hear ya, i think volt/gm was brought up (by me i am afraid) due to the fact their makers are both car companies. 2 company with very different perception in the public as well as valuation (among many other differences).
model s an EV (not without its faults) targeting the luxury market (which i believe is a wise move) vs volt that is very different
you'll be surprise what cars are being compare to when people buy a volt (considering its 32k price tag).
i do think GM made one little mistake (among many others), maybe they should of use their EV technology and release a luxury cadillac version first instead of a chevy. then again are many arguments for doing that as well.
hy
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eric i understand model S is intrigue ( i understand)
however, just a personal taste issue, i think the center console from model s is not very attractive (a giant flat screen), not saying flat screen is not good there are benefits, but this implementation seem a big awkward to me, that is just me
Base on my anecdotal evidence Volt owners are very happy and having <b>fun</b> with there volt. But i understand about sexy.
VW Bug owners have fun.
I meant fun in terms of top of the line sports sedan fun -- M5 level fun.
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i am not comparing model S to volt, its like comparing toyota camry to lexus, no one said volt is a performance car.
volt after rebates is 31k
the cheapest model s after rebate is 50k
everyone has their preference, camry or lexus take your pick. you want to talk about cost efficient, i am probably by a used car (lets say honda civic) at $5k and get excellent mileage at the lowest cost.
at the end of day:
everything from GM gets filter through a glass half full glass, good or bad. hopefully not forever, since i have a good position in GM :)
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folk i think everyone is aware that volt like setup is a transitory setup (even GM), but its underlying technology can be use for future pure EV cars.
as for the cost of the volt, that is another example of everything gm does is filter through a glass half full , its a new technology there are a lot of RD cost. I don't see many critics write similar articles (maybe there are I haven't seen it) about Toyota's or Nissan's effort on their spend on their respective EV related technology and spread that out to the vehicle sales (leaf sales is lower than volts and nissan spend more on leaf related tech base on some article).
people forget GM was the first one that came out with the concept of drive by wire (were that driving part of the car is just a skateboard like thing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Hy-wire) back in 2002.
i guess all this doesn't matter at the end of the day, its sales and profit.
Base on my anecdotal evidence Volt owners are very happy and having <b>fun</b> with there volt. But i understand about sexy.
Its similar to the new ear phone from Apple, I am sure people have seen the new ear phone commercial from apple "Wow ear phone that is shape more for the ear, instead of being round" wow. This has been around for quite a while from Bose etc.
hy
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eric you might want to take a look at this
http://www.gm.com/vehicles/future_vehicles.html#/2014_Cadillac_ELR
its the cadillac version of the volt, just another option, which isn't out yet. but its not exactly the same class as the model s (its a 2+2)
hy
The reason why I want to buy a Model S is that it's basically getting the same acceleration performance as an M5 -- I'm talking about the "performance" version of the Model S.
The performance version gets 0-60 in 4.4 seconds. But it doesn't have the lag when you punch it -- it immediately starts pulling.
And they're in the same price point too.
The Volt is not competing with a Model S.
About 10 years ago I purchased an Audi S4. It was fun, but I was very irritated that when I punched it there was always a lag before it would respond.
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eric i hear ya, i would love to get one of these EVs myself (but i live in the city a plugin is not as useful for now)
but i tend to wait for version 2.0 if you know what i mean
that is one of the benefits of electric motors, the torque/acceleration
hy
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i was just rambling
i think everything that gm does gets filter through a glass is half empty glass
while varies other companies gets filter through a glass is half full glass
that is just how things work, since we are only human
volt is a pretty revolutionary car (its branded as a dog vs what the competition has to offer)
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/09/25/say-what-you-want-chevy-volt-outselling-half-the-cars-in-u-s/
while model S (so far good reviews) is somehow coin as this revolutionary car that where ever hicup so far is being brushed aside
I always find it funny critic of the volt always talk about 1) over prices (true depending on how you look at it) 2) you need to charge the vehicle (strange volt is one of the first car that solve that problem comparing to pure EVs) too hard for people to do 3) limited battery range.
These criticism all apply to other EV's, but somehow the Volt is the failure, very strange.
hy
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tesla lover forgive, i am always a bit put off by all the hype around tesla.
did people forget the Volt from GM?
its sad so tesla is worth about 1/10 of GM? really?
Western Digital Seems Extremely Cheap
in General Discussion
Posted
honestly i am no storage tech expert, that is why so far WDC/STX will never be a big part of my positions
i think wdc/stx is misunderstood/underestimated (or another way people overestimate ssd that is going to take over the world and leave wdc/stx dead)
i don't see HDD goin away anytime soon, does anyone? soon meaning with next 5 years. also the best tech doesn't always win, also its not like wdc/stx are sitting still, the longer it takes SSD to catch on the better not only because wdc/stx can continue to make more money with hdd like tech, wdc/stx have time to improve/perfect/compete
we all know ssd is here and coming, with that in mind, how much are you willing to pay for wdc considering.
note they made almost 2bil over the past 12 months (sure thailand flood etc help). even if they make 500mil or 1bil a year, how much is that worth and for how long.
also note, the same management has been with wdc for a long time, they went though the HDD consolidation/other new tech/products/competitors etc etc.
i typically like to buy around $20 :) i still have a small position since i bought it last around $20
still researching/watching