hyten1
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Posts posted by hyten1
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its hard to value gold
china maybe?
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folks
was wondering what everyone thought the next potential bubble might be and how would you profit from it.
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i was down 40% in 2008 and are up 94% YTD 2009
what helped was the fact i didn't really sell much stock (all came back) and i pour more money in as the market panic and crashed
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viking i hear ya
it is getting harder and harder to find good ideas now.
i have been gradually raising cash as well.
it is getting frustrating to find fat pitches now, i was buying like crazy during the 1st 3 month of this year. It turn out well, but i guess it could of easily turn the other way.
what to buy/invest now?!?!?!?
then again i understand what other are going to say "there are plenty of great companies at reasonable prices" this i agree. I guess i feel more comfortable when i find ideas that make me go "whoaa i can't believe this is SOOO cheap". what i am afraid is i can be waiting for years to come.....
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viking
so what happen during 1q of 09 is not enough of a "I am content to wait for a fatter pitch (brought on by a broad based sell off). Time will tell if that forecast pays off... "??
hy
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hmmm i am getting sentimental here. :(
i guess it is both a honor and a bid sad that people would be talking about someones impending farewell ... it'll truly be a sad day when the day comes that WEB is no longer with us.
one of my rules in life is to always find a mentor and learn everything you can from that person (WEB is one of those guys for me). since i haven't found anyone i actually know.
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any comment for the states
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sorry this is a long article, the part about lehman prime brokerage is towards the middle.
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wow this article really make me think http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=top_news&sid=aNFuVRL73wJc regarding hedge funds still waiting to get their money back from lehman prime brokerage.
this make me think? does people worry about their broker/brokerage/prime broker going belly up? how do you protect yourself from suck a thing.
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agree i think timing is very important (not to say you day trade) even buffett time market. he don't always do buy and hold (this only applies to some very specific/special company)
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here is my order of preference from the most prefer to least prefer not only as storage of value but something that can create additional value. I agree with Buffett gold is definitely not the most desirable.
1. well run biz that can increase price greater than inflation (purchase at a huge discount to IV)
2. well run biz that can increase price greater than inflation (purchase at a medium discount to IV)
3. well run biz that can increase price greater than inflation (purchase at IV)
4. Real estate purchase at a price where you can generate good positive cash flow
5. fixed income/bonds/TIPS/
6. commodities (like gold)
7. fiat money
i dont quite understand the desire to hold gold, other than a short term trade.
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you pick the 2nd door
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i personally think there will be minimally flat prices or slight deflation.
everything i see prices are falling, real estate, stocks, car prices, restaurants coming up with cheaper menus, clothing. the biggest thing is wages, there is so much slack in our economy. i dont see how govs few trillion will compensate for all this.
however i am not 100% convince yet as well. things that make me think otherwise are theoritically the gov can print as much money as they can if they really want inflation i dont see how they cant create it, just print 5 trill, or 10 trillion whatever they want/need.
but all the typically signs i see prices falling.
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i hear what everyone is saying.
i guess for me the margin of safety has gotten smaller now, makes everything harder :)
For me the type of ideas i am looking at now are mostly "hmm if there is a recovery then this is cheap, if end up like japan then oops" as oppose to before "this is trading at almost liquidation or trading at 2 to 3 times earnings, WOW!!!"
what dose everyone think of anh,nly agency mbs companies, i guess the key is what do you think the interest rate will be in the future. this is not the type of investment i like to make (this is more short term)
ideally i am looking for companies:
1. I have to understand etc (all the typical value stuff)
2. trading at almost net tangible asset value or close to it or at net asset with a potential for growth
2. very high quality biz trading at less than 8 pe with either no growth or potential for some growth.
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man its been getting frustrating, good ideas are getting harder and harder to come by, unlike 5 to 6 months ago.
what is everything looking at?
here are some stock that i have been looking at
anh, kvhi, mcd, bpo
i cant seem to figure out why mohnish bought bpo. i understand its commercial reit with many of its property tied up with long term leases, but my question is how much is their property worth in the current environment relative to their purchase price?
Next bubble and how to profit form it
in General Discussion
Posted
i think looking for bubbles and crashes are similar to the saying " We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful "
i was just wondering what everyone thought, since you can typically make some great returns with fear and greed.