hyten1
-
Posts
1,006 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by hyten1
-
-
spg are prime malls which command higher $ per sq ft etc.
can't just look at sq ft #
-
the key is unlawful, i don't think WEB and munger ever said it was unlawful
but WEB and munger hold their executive to higher standard i think, unlawful is a must, but not nearly good enough
-
parsad i hear ya, but on the other hand me as an investor will wonder and think why you manage your pa so differently than the fund, than again i don't really know if there are really different i am just extrapolating from the different in return btw your fund and the pa.
in any case, still looking for the next big idea :)
i have never been able to put in more than 30% on any idea :(
-
parsad,
congrats on pa
i don't quite understand, why don't you institute a lock up period etc etc so that you can implement some of the things that you do in your pa in your fund?
hy
-
my is a little over 17% annualized since 2003
eric i need some of that 50%+ annualized
-
45%+
-
happy new year to all!
-
well i am 14%+ ahead of s&p 500 annualized since 2003
i am not managing billions or hundreds of millions of dollars
-
anyone knows if there is an electronic copy of this handbook online somewhere?
-
To stream everywhere, Netflix encodes each movie 120 times
-
palantir,
for me this is more of a trading vehicle, usually buy when its hits 20's (lowe ideally) and sell when it hits 40's, while at the same time keep an eye out on the supply demand issue as well as SSD's progress etc.
i could be wrong on this maybe it will hit 50 or 60
PS: all above will change if something changes
hy
-
-
just some personal experience, i recently bought an ultrabook (little less than $1k), it has a hybrid drive in it with windows 8
my personal experience i need more and more harddrive space prob 1 or 2tb and i don't think i am a power user
the the drive have been fill up by me taking photos and video of my kids and my kids are only 1 to 3 year olds and i don't think i am one of those crazy parents either
i have been taking more and more videos instead of pictures, they are just better, using my digital camera, which takes HD videos (a small point and shoot carmear)
i easily use Gigs of space without even knowing it, also the videos i take are not very long either usually less than 1 min or around there.
also for me cloud has its place, i would never put all these videos/photos on the cloud, i guess i could but the upload time is just too long, also i would easily use up all the FREE cloud spaces usually companies provide you and would start charging me, which why would i pay when i can get 1 TB or 2 TB for few hundred bucks
-
i have to admit, for a split second i thought something happen to Mr Buffett.
-
no_free_lunch,
your argument is most likely correct and its nothing new, that is the main thesis holding down WDC/STX etc
technology change, technology transition, this is nothing new, everyone is aware of this
the question is how fast how soon and can companies adapt.
the longer it takes the more chance WDC/STX can adapt
also don't forget WDC/STX's heads are not in the sand, its not a horse and buggy company that is only making hoses and buggies
also look at the valuation a lot of the concerns that everyone is aware of and know about are, you can argue price in, if not it certainly has affected WDC/STX's valuation.
for me its a small position, i buy when i have a large margin of safety (I could be wrong)
EDIT: It also depends on how you play this, i would never buy this and just forget about it. There are uncertainties and unknowns, so i would want a larger margin of safety and the price ever gets ahead of itself i sell. I obviously keep an eye out on the HDD and SSD transition.
if PE of 6 within 6 years you would have made your entire money back. of course this general math (PE can be 6 but both price and earning could drop at the same rate)
It seems like a trap to me. PE of 6 is fantastic but the future of HDD is not good.
I was looking at upgrading my computer the other month and SSD drive prices are down aroung $0.50 / GB. That is not good enough for a primary drive but the price per GB will just continue to come down. If I could get a 400 GB drive for $99 there would be no question about it, I'd get SSD and that would be it.
Look at it this way, SSD have 2-4 x the performance, they are more shock resistant, they are much better at handling random access which will continue to come our way with parallel processing, tech people just consider them better all around. The price right now is $0.50 per GB, with Moore's law doubling capacity every 2 years, in 10 years it will be $0.50 / 32 GB or $1 / 64GB. So $99 is a 6 TB SSD. Now yes, you could probably get a 50-100 TB HDD for that price but at some point people just don't need the capacity anymore.
Over the past decade we had first audio, and then video drive hard drive space requirements. Audio is already not an issue for most SSD drives and certainly within a decade video won't be much of an issue. With 6 TB you can store 1200 HD movies. For backing up your files you can already get 64GB usb sticks for like $40, in 10 years they will be 1 TB sticks for $40. For personal files what more do you really need? Sure, there will be the odd person who just has to have every episode of every tv show or movie they will ever watch, plus 200 -300 games and needs 50 TB storage but I just don't think that's the norm. There will also be corporations with huge data requirements but even then there are are only so many of them and I don't know that they would replace the home market. At the same time, I am an IT guy and the current generation of servers is the last that I want without SSD, the next one it just won't be an issue. We already are not using up the HDD space and when I can get 1TB SSD, with the performance advantage it's a non issue. Basically in the future I see HDD being used by hobbyists and businesses and while there will still be large numbers sold it just won't compare to what we have right now in terms of volume.
Right now they are selling ballpark 300-400 M HDD drives based on a quick google search. The forecasts I saw called for that number to drop in half over the next few years, who knows where it will be in a decade.
If my thesis is correct and the industry erodes over the next decade I just don't see how you make money on the stock. If everything went perfect for 10 years, you made the PE of 6 each year and every penny went back to shareholders you would get a 66% return over a decade + liquidation value which isn't even that great. However there are bound to be ups and down over the decade that hit profits and as this plays out there could be a lot of down periods with sales dropping followed by industry members losing their self-control and trying to grab market share from the dwindling pot. I could just see it getting really ugly.
Sorry for the pessimism, feel free to rip my argument to shreds. :P
-
MrB I agree :)
Damn you're making a persuasive case for this stock.......basically an old-style rollup in a consolidating/declining industry.
I'm actually not..well I'm trying not too. I am just highlighting the facts, because the more I look at those the more my own reservations seem to be irrelevant. It just seems terribly misunderstood.
It does deserve some respect you know ;-)
"Like flying a Boeing 747 six inches above the ground"
http://www.atarimagazines.com/v5n6/InsideHardDisk.html
-
haha,
This is hilarious its article/thinking like this that guarantees people who follow the value investing principals will beat the market.
it make me happy people still think this way :)
hy
-
i have been sucking my thumb, was thinking of adding to BAC but it has gone up a good amount, i would increase by cost base if i add (I usually like to add to decrease it)
anchoring is tough
-
just curious, i have been thinking about this (anchoring is always tough)
if you have 100% cash right now, what you would be buying or stay in cash?
-
MrB i agree i mean one thing I found interesting wdc has been more consumer oriented and stx enterprise yet wdc has better margin :)
-
MrB i hear ya, byt no means is WDC on par with stx on the enterprise/ssd, probably not (honestly i am not sure)
i just know wdc has been pretty good at what they do, in terms of operations, cost, etc. (wdc has been talking about enterprise/ssd for a while, its an area they are weaker at, its not something they just realize notice recently)
hitachi has definitely strength wdc in varies area that they were weak in
one way to invest in this space is buy both stx and wdc :)
-
MrB
yes last point i guess still kind of applies but WDC has strengthen its position in that area with the recent hitachi acquistion
"The WD-HGST deal has an SSD angle as well. Both companies participate in the SSD market through different approaches, although neither has a leading market position at this time.
In 2009, WD acquired SSD maker SiliconSystems as a means of entering the SSD market. Although SiliconSystems had its sights set on the enterprise SSD market, WD’s current offerings are more oriented towards embedded SSDs for the military and industry, with few offerings of any substance in the enterprise space.
Late in 2008, Hitachi signed a deal with Intel to produce SSDs that would combine the highly-reputed Intel SSD architecture with Hitachi’s enterprise HDD interfaces. Hitachi would introduce SAS and Fibre Channel SSDs, with Intel continuing to serve the SATA market. Last November, Hitachi introduced the first of these products (see “Hitachi GST entersSSD market”).
Assuming that the Intel-HGST agreement successfully transfers to WD, WD’s enterprise storage group will finally introduce fast SSDs into the enterprise market."
http://www.infostor.com/disk-arrays/disk-drives/analysis-western-digital-hitachi-gst-.html
hy
-
MrB good powerpoint slide
if you look at slide 40, "What about WDC?" all those point no longer applied? (well except for the flood which did affect WDC, but base on their recent quarter release, it didn't affect wdc in any real negative way)
hy
- fundamentally storage is here to stay, someone/some company will provide storage, the storage might be in the form of HD, solid state, or whatever.... the key is be dominate as THE STORAGE company.There are different segments of the storage industry.
Companies like EMC and Netapp that do enterprise storage are increasingly becoming software companies. (With some services and integration... because their products are complicated.) I think that this segment of storage will be an area of a lot of value creation. Dell paid a ridiculous P/E multiple for Compellent.
There are companies that make flash hard drive controllers (e.g. Sandforce). These chips will become increasingly complicated as time goes on (in the future, they will have to do a lot more error correction). There may be some unusual value creation here... though I don't know who the winner will be.
There are companies that slap parts together, e.g. OCZ. I don't think that this is a great industry.
There are companies that make the parts that go into a hard drive... e.g. Hutchison Technology. Not a great industry.
Another way to look at it is to look at the industry structure. The suppliers to WDC/STX's numbers look horrible, which makes sense if you are supplying to a consolidating industry. The attached (pages 7-10) gives a good breakdown of the industry.
-
lets say SSD dominates 100% of market (which i seriously doubt)
you guys think WDC/STX will go to ZERO?
I am sure WDC/STX will be in that mix, i highly doubt its ZERO
i am fairly confident of it because:
1) SSD is taking a long time to come a long to improve, etc
2) HDD is improving
3) WDC/STX both already have SSD tech and products
hy
Icahn Says No Respect For Ackman After Herbalife Bet
in General Discussion
Posted
crazy, but it was fun watching it