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fareastwarriors

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    Prospective CRE Targets

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Morgan said:

    I found the four complexes in this article. Heights at Post Oak, Redford Apartments, Reserve at Westwood and Timber Ridge Apartments. They are older buildings that have been periodically renovated. They appear to have central AC and heat, pools, workout rooms, allow pets and some other amenities. I didn't see who pays what utilities on the websites, but I assume the tenant pays them. Probably just electric and water. One other large issue is they are two story buildings as opposed to three or four story buildings. That means a lot more roof maintenance expense per unit when it comes due.   

     

    $230m / 3200 units is about $71k per unit. Rents appear to be $775 - $1200. Rather low for that price per unit. I don't know the unit mix, so it's let's just assume $1000/unit/month x 3200 units x 90% occupancy = ~$2.9/mo in rents. A mortgage on $230m, at 8%, for 15 years is $2.2m per month. Roughly 76% of the rents. Waaaaaaay too high. I normally aim for the mortgage to be 25-33% of the rents. So my back of the envelope value is around 80m to 90m depending on financing. 

     

     

    Side note 1: I don't know anything about the Houston MF market, so my valuation may never even be possible. Maybe it was during the 08/09 recession. Maybe we'll see it again soon. 

     

    Side note 2: The guys who lost the complexes in foreclosure were nuts not to have fixed rate financing. Totally nuts. 

     

    Nice to see you chime in Morgan since you manage 100s (1000s?) of units yourself. 

     

     

    Floating rate, high LTV, and can't forget the higher property taxes in Texas.  This operator was hoping for a some kind of miracle to make this deal work. 

     

     

    Prospective CRE Targets

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by fareastwarriors

    On 4/11/2023 at 4:18 PM, Parsad said:

    Unfortunately article has a paywall:

     

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/houston-apartment-owner-loses-3-200-units-to-foreclosure-as-multifamily-feels-the-heat-fb3d0e75?siteid=yhoof2

     

    I think someone on here posted once before on how to get past them.

     

    Cheers!


    Don't you manage money? Even you don't have WSJ sub? Does any pay for newspapers anymore? 😉 Anyways I kid. 

     

     

     

     

    Quote

    Most of Applesway’s loans originated in the second half of 2021, just before the Federal Reserve began its campaign to raise interest rates. At one property, the interest rate on Applesway’s loan had risen from 3.4% to around 8%, according to loan information obtained from data firm Trepp Inc. At least two of the properties were financed with about 80% debt, which is considered high leverage in commercial real estate.

     

    Floating rates and high LTV, no wonder they default.  Frankly, deserve it. 

     

    Next Berkshire acquisition speculation

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    5 hours ago, sleepydragon said:


    My own prediction: they will bring Mr. Buffett to the best restaurant in Japan and they will serve sashimi made of $1 million dollar fish, and Mr. Buffett will want a cheese burger.

     

    Take him to Mos Burger

    😋

     

    or any American fast food franchises in Japan. They're so much better than the ones we have here in the good ol' USA. 

    Is The Bottom Almost Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As a former cashier in college, I took pride in being friendly, polite, and efficient. I was consistently ranked highest items per minute among all cashiers at Whole Foods in White Plains, NY!

     

    But too many of my coworkers should not had been customer facing... 

     

     

     

     

    Is The Bottom Almost Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Ulti said:

    That's me ... rarely go out ....its getting to be price per unit cost at whole paycheck is about the same as publix

     

    Whenever I go to Florida to visit friends, I shop at Publix and is always surprised at how expensive that place is. And I come from expensive SF Bay Area. I don't get the hype.

     

    Is The Bottom Almost Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by fareastwarriors

    Surprised that Yahoo still had that many staff

     

     

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/09/yahoo-will-lay-off-nearly-1000-employees-by-end-of-2023.html

     

    Private equity firm Apollo Global Management acquired 90% of Yahoo from Verizon in September 2021. The company had about 10,000 employees at that time, according to PitchBook data.

     

    Axios reported that more than 1,600 workers would lose their jobs in the latest cuts, suggesting the company’s current head count is closer to 8,000 employees

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, StevieV said:

     

    I have apparently run out of FT free articles.  If I recall correctly, most of the reporting was that Kew left when the board wouldn't discuss his $300 million pay package proposal.  $300 million is obviously a huge number, but probably not out of line for this type of position.  The new CG CEO has a $180 million incentive program, so the board isn't opposed to a large incentive pay package.

     

    I think there was other reporting about him being pushed out as well.  I'm out of Bloomberg articles as well apparently, but the part of the below article that I can see says Kew was abruptly pushed out.

     

    I don't know how accurate the reporting is and only the parties closer to this know for sure, but I don't think it is plausible that it was only a pay dispute.  If the board wanted to keep Kew, I think they would have negotiated a deal.  The targets are a huge factor in these incentive deals along with the headline numbers.  The new CEO isn't getting $180 automatically; it requires 110% stock appreciation in 5-years.  If Kew wanted a higher headline number, the board could have put a higher target - 150%, 180% in 5-years.

     

    In any event, neither here nor there at this point.

     

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/carlyle-ceo-drama-exposes-fault-lines-between-old-guard-and-new?leadSource=uverify wall

     
    here you go

     

    https://archive.is/q3XOU

    Is The Bottom Almost Here?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by fareastwarriors

    17 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

     

    Any sense in the Bay Area whether the scale of other opportunities are such that she should be able to pick up something pretty quick or a bit of dislocation happening at the moment?.......the tight clustering of lay-offs in big tech and in Bay seem pretty large...........I've a developer friend who for years worked in FinTech.......but cool FinTech..........he just took a job with an insurance giant.........still technically FinTech but not the MacBook/Bean bag/Cortado kind he's used.......it wasnt his choice and as he says this less about building the future......and more about trying to drag legacy COBOL systems into the present while not breaking anything

     

    The market for software engineers still seems decently strong. Her other laid off peers got jobs at Reddit/Spotify/startups. Some did go to bigger finance/insurance/non-tech companies but many of them are visa holders. They probably needed the infrastructure to help with their visa stuff. 

     

    She's going to study and prepare for interviews later this month/next month. We have a 2 month old baby. No rush though.  Our PITI is only like $2000 and we have a tenant in an ADU paying $1300. We'll be fine for a while. 

     

    🙂

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