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fareastwarriors

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    Hillary Clinton - "Amen to that" Get your (US) economic house in order

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    So broke that we can borrow for 30 years at less than 3%  8)

     

    I'll go a step further and suggest that the Federal Government should implement a massive infrastructure project.....go out and borrow $1 trillion from those crazy bond vigiliantes at 3% then turn around and rebuild our crumbling infrastructure. We could probably take half of the current unemployed population and put them to work via such a program.

     

    While I think it would be wiser to build infrastructure projects when times are bad since costs would be lower for both material and labor, I think your estimation of the beneficial impact on the unemployed is way too optimistic.  Most of the unemployed have no construction experience.

     

    WPA/PWA/CCC anyone? New Deal 2.0

    Glass Half Full Exercise

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Both April and May US Car Sales are tangibly higher than last year:

     

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/01/usa-autosales-idUSL4E8H16YI20120601

     

    AUTOMAKER              YTD  YTD 2011  PCT CHNG

    1  General Motors    1,066,963  1,046,275        2.0

    2  Ford Motor          935,864    878,600        6.5

    3  Toyota Motor        868,301    701,851      23.7

    4  Chrysler            689,257    519,538      32.7

    5  Honda Motor Co      576,174    523,550      10.1

    6  Nissan              485,484    433,032      12.1

    7  Hyundai            292,856    263,588      11.1

    8  Kia                237,381    200,060      18.7

    9  Volkswagen          170,555    125,681      35.7

    11  Subaru              136,602    112,255      21.7

    12  BMW                130,843    116,656      12.2

    10  Mazda Motor Co      123,886    103,072      20.2

    13  Mercedes/Smart      117,231    95,458      22.8

    14  Audi                52,494    45,858      14.5

    15  Mitsubishi          27,462    35,816      -23.3

    16  Land Rover          17,389    13,254      31.2

    17  Porsche              13,448    12,996        3.5

    18  Suzuki              10,695    11,124      -3.9

    19  Jaguar                5,476      5,021        9.1

                                                         

        TOTAL            5,958,361  5,243,685      13.6

        SOURCE: Autodata Corp and Reuters calculations

     

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47974815

     

    the average age of the 245 million vehicles registered in the U.S. in the first quarter of this year was 11 years.

     

    The fleet is rapidly aging. Yes quality went up but eventually people will want the newer sexier models. 

    What's going on with the housing market?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Another story I heard ( this is totally anecdotal so treat it with a big spoonful of salt and a dollop of skepticism ) from another friend who works with a lot of chinese/asian colleagues is that in some chinese communities in LA, there seems to be some sort of a shadow banking/private lending practice in existence. Private lenders are willing to lend to members of their community, loans ranging from 7 to 10 times their gross annual salaries at decent rates. These loans are then being used to buy up 2nd and 3rd homes or other properties like land/foreclosed properties (a lot of these deals are all cash deals).  I don't know how far this is true and I doubt if that has any significant effect on the phenomenon we are observing around the country but I was wondering if anyone has heard anything similar in other parts of the country. I also remember reading sometime back about Brazilians buying up properties in south florida.

     

    I heard of similar operations here in the Northern California/Bay Area. I don't know how extensive it is but that is interesting funding model.

     

    I am closing in a 3-unit property right now. We are working on inspections/etc.  I probably did more than over 50+ bids by now. I started my search early this year. I am paying a few thousand above the list price. 

     

    I am looking for more! I don't have an "elephant gun" but I do have a water gun! I just wish I had more capital...

     

    What's going on with the housing market?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    "Right now I'm on the market to buy a smaller rental property in a certain area of Southern California."

     

    Have you looked in inland empire area; or have you been looking in LA,OC ?

     

    OC, don't really care for the inland empire area.

     

    And I'm trying to figure out whether this is just the normal summer thing or there is some kind of deeper and more permanent change is going on. The agents are saying different things, of course. Some think that the market will cool off in Fall and mention that banks are holding back inventory because of some kind of handshake deal with the government to create an appearance of improving housing market to help current president to get re-elected (I'm not sure I buy that one. I can see banks not being that agressive on short sales, so they don't have to realize losses, but holding back foreclosed homes would cost them real money.) Some agents believe that the market is normalizing, the interest rates are so low, the rental market is so strong, and the prices are so attractive compared to rents that many investors that held back before are stepping in. I even heard talks about some hedge funds buying entire portfolios of distressed residential properties from banks, setting up or using existing property management companies and are renting those out or are flipping them. Sort of makes sense for the funds and for the banks.

     

     

    It seems like the Private Equity/Hedge Fund folks are running into some problems buying large bulks of homes.

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-13/private-equity-has-too-much-money-to-spend-on-homes-mortgages.html

     

    It's an interesting read.

    What's going on with the housing market?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The lower end and the higher end here in the Bay Area are getting lots of bids and majority are above asking.  But I am still seeing some offers fall through because of financing problems or low appraisals.

     

    I'm not worry about bidding above asking because I feel as long the "numbers" still make sense. I willing to buy in. I figure, with a 30 year mortgage and the current rates, I can still make a good, if not great, return on my money.

     

     

     

     

     

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