LC

I just realize I checked the wrong box. Strike one from the <-10% and add it to the <10% bucket. (I'm at 9% through November 31 but will probably end up around 11-12% due to selling some FCAU at 13.xx and selling some BAC today at 17.9X.

Enjoy the holiday season in whatever form that takes! ;D Sanjeev, can we get a photo of you in a Santa hat and smoking a Churchill given your success in 2014? ;D

I sent you a PM but I am curious about this as well. I presume the thesis is that higher margin specialty chemicals won't experience the price-drop that feedstock has? Thanks for the idea.

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WSBASE/downloaddata

I still can't wrap my head around how Warren Buffett can go on and on about how a 5-year period is what he wants to be judged on, then when he doesn't hit that benchmark, how can he not apologize profusely to all of us while simultaneously committing seppuku right there on the spot? So sarcasm aside, I don't see where Pabrai himself said that disclosing returns was illegal. That appears to be the journalist's comment. Additionally, this is an edited article. Who knows what was cut out, or placed out of context? Finally, what Pabrai DID say was "There is nothing intelligent that one can say about short periods like 10 months. I never make investments with any thought to what will happen in a few months or even a year". I agree with this statement, I'm sure many here do as well. Finally, on a general note: Pabrai doesn't owe the public anything. Nobody has to watch his videos, read his interviews, or invest with him. I've learned a ton from him. I didn't think the interview was anything odd.

Also, the rest of that website is amazing for resources. Take a look at the write-up on Abraham Lincoln. I just missed going to their meeting this year, but from what contact I've had with the folks there, they seem really kind.

Don’t worry… Next time I want to share something with Liberty, I’ll send him a PM… Promised! ;) Cheers, Gio Please do not do that. It is easy to skip posts that do not interest me. Harder to do the other way around (reading what is not written.) ;) Agreed, I find these discussions informative even when not participating.

Most investors strive fruitlessly for certainty and precision, avoiding situations in which information is difficult to obtain. Yet high uncertainty is frequently accompanied by low prices. By the time the uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen." Guy/Mohnish said something to the effect of "uncertainty does not equal risk". So one thing I try to look for is places with high uncertainty but low risk. Perhaps a low cost oil producer would fit this bill, looking at today's energy landscape.

He did a bit of merger arbitrage I believe, but back in those days I believe the spreads were far juicier. He also took activist positions.

No idea, perhaps it is up to the SEC to determine and does not follow a fixed schedule? How can you tell Buffett has a confidential position?

If prices stay at this level can they afford $9b on capex plus the dividend? I suppose if they do in fact leverage the B/S to make acquisitions that will help.

Friends, family, music, laughter, stories, technology, and the good of humanity! Happy times and Happy Thanksgiving to every one tomorrow!

For consumer-esque products (i.e. easily understandable) I call retailers/distributors and simply pretend I'm a prospective customer and see what say. Message boards about a particular company or industry that are not investment related are good as well, but as with almost everything online needs to be taken with initial skepticism. I like to see if I can find videos of the CEO as well. Just to get a vibe with his personality. Industry reports are sometimes useful, I think it depends on the industry. Reports on high-tech stuff I haven't really found useful (apparently everything is "disruptive" and "game changing"), same with some of the medical stuff I've tried to read. Although I am clueless in the medical field so maybe it's me. If I think of some others I'll post as well.

about 15% at the moment but I wish I was fully invested...it's a function of having no good ideas

This makes no sense, and is not at all how Buffett or Munger invests. I think it does make sense, why do you disagree? Also it is in fact how Munger invests given he has a portion fo his wealth being managed by Li Lu.

There is buy or there is sell, there is no hold -Yoda (or Li Lu?) Following this advice, if you aren't willing to buy at today's prices, you should sell.

Apologies if this has been posted, just saw it and thought the board would enjoy: http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/special-commentaries/2014-10-cfa-society-of-reno-speech.pdf?sfvrsn=2 My favorite part: "The stock market has been a fabulous place to be, particularly the past two years. However, approximately 60% of the market’s total return for this period has been a function of PE expansion. Profit margins have only improved slightly while top line revenue growth for the S&P500 has averaged between 2.5% and 3%. In contrast, earnings’ per share growth, benefitting from aggressive corporate share buybacks, has been above 5%. I warn you that share buy backs should be viewed skeptically since corporations have a long history of implementing them at stock market peaks while they are then terminated at troughs. "

awesome, thanks for posting! i'd love to look thru the raw data if you dont mind posting.

If by WSB you are referring to his license plate which says GMWSB it is a reference to his second biggest position - GM's B warrants. Judging from a review of his last 8 13Fs, and his reference to "stock tips", it looks like Fiat could be a new position for Dalal Street since the September 30, 2014 holding date. I think Mohnish has held Fiat for a while now, probably about a year if my memory serves. Although it has been undisclosed to date, which should change by next Q's 13-Fs. For LC, karthikpm, or others on the forum. In the spirit of learning consistent with this forum, how would you guys know that Mohnish held Fiat for so long if he wasn't filing a 13-F on it, and why wouldn't he have to file on it? I am a newbie and obviously not going to his annual meeting nor have I seen any of his "ads". I believe it was at his annual meeting last year (which I didn't attend but fellow boardmembers posted pictures here) where he was photographed in front of a Fiat/Maserati/Ferrari (I forget which brand) with something of a thumbs-up/smile. It was soon after the Fiat thread was started here, and he had given talks around the same time which were on Youtube where he referenced this board as a place to generate/discuss ideas. So nobody knew for sure but it wasn't a big leap to say he owned Fiat. Then when the re-listing to NYSE occured, Fiat released a shareholder list which had Pabrai's funds as owning around 10m shares. So it was confirmed then to an outsider like myself.

Never thought of that, thanks west!

If by WSB you are referring to his license plate which says GMWSB it is a reference to his second biggest position - GM's B warrants. Judging from a review of his last 8 13Fs, and his reference to "stock tips", it looks like Fiat could be a new position for Dalal Street since the September 30, 2014 holding date. I think Mohnish has held Fiat for a while now, probably about a year if my memory serves. Although it has been undisclosed to date, which should change by next Q's 13-Fs.

Fantastic! I look forward to it.

How long until the announcement that Berkshire has hired 3G to comb over Duracell?

Check their recent IR presentation, they've made some moves recently and are trying to transition into higher margin product. I actually think it looks interesting, the valuation seems amenable, and it showed up on Clipper's 13F recently.

Ah yes I remember now seeing the shareholder list a few months back. I can confirm the ~14m shares. Not sure how much Mohnish controls in total, but his latest 13F was about $330m, obviously not including the foreign shares he owns. Maybe $750m, Fiat representing about a 20% stake. Buy a few Maseratis, Mohnish! :)