LC

Good luck bidders! Probably one of the best places to put your charity dollars. Plus, take a look at Mohnish...with that belly, you know this man knows good food! I'd wager that lunch is going to be DELICIOUS! ;D ;D

One other explanation (or contributing factor) is that the low-hanging fruit has all been plucked.

I see your Zappa and raise you Team America: World Police https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Team_America:_World_Police#Dicks,_Pussies,_Assholes_Speech Obviously some crude language but it gets the point across. Maybe? ;D

Poor and middle class assholes are easier to dismiss. Rich assholes live rent free in your head because jealousy is also involved. This is why people remember the Benz that cuts them off when merging lanes, but not the 1989 Toyota Corolla. Assholes are probably evenly distributed amongst the wealth groups, as are (I would wager) most personality characteristics.

The master strikes again :D I've been reading your posts doing this for years now - can you comment on average returns (or at least a sense of them, if you don't track explicitly?)

Great article. In my opinion he makes very compelling points: he gets demographics right, he gets power-dynamics right. I think he gets information sharing right as well but his arguments were a little kitschy there. Thanks for posting this one.

California has implemented data privacy laws, Spek: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Consumer_Privacy_Act Most companies are wrapping up their adoption.

For institutional trader yes. For PAs you can wait until expiration and take delivery or close out with limited vega and theta exposure.

There is little economic difference between selling puts and going long. Compare the payoff curves. The key is you need to be correct on underlying direction. Whether you are long the underlying or short the put, you need to be right on the stock. This is where I want to put my analytic efforts and take my brain damage. Shorting puts present more brain damage in the form of portfolio management. Now you are sorting through another calculation. Which puts to sell? 3 month, 6 month, 1 week? What prices are fair? I'll let you guys with more energy and brain power to get paid from taking that brain damage :D

It's a pretty good idea - I am not denying that. The other component is the "brain damage" associated with this. I do not invest for a living, so I have to ask myself, what do I want to spend my energy on: 1- trying to be correct in the long term, or; 2- trying to be correct in the long term AND trying to trade around relative valuation AND trying to value put premiums on a risk adjusted basis AND trying to manage exposure per trade and per portfolio? For those with the time and energy, it is a great idea. Just take a look at boilermaker's posts about doing this with BRK over the years, he is an inspiration in this sense!

Because it is the same strategy that people used in the housing market in 2005. The assumption is "the market will keep going up - it has for 100s of years!" Then you are put to.

The way I think of it is like this: First, you have a fair value which you believe BAC is worth. Lets say you think fair value or intrinsic value etc. is $35/share, well then you are buying at 77% of FV and selling at 85% of IV. So I agree with Cardboard this sounds like a pretty decent strategy (or as he put it, one could do much worse). And I think it can be generalized and improved in two ways: 1) Limit this to companies you would 'buy-and-hold' 2) Expand this to multiple companies because really you taking advantage of volatility

To me, it's entertainment. Nobody is changing anyone's mind but treating it like theater is fun and engaging. Some people watch the Kardashians, others watch the news. The only difference between a pleasure and a guilty pleasure is that feeling guilty is no fun :D The rule I set for myself is not allow judgement to bleed over to the other sections of the forum. Do I think it's silly for someone to be religious, or support Trump? Maybe - but that doesn't mean that person can't identify good investment opportunities. Furthermore, take a look at the investment section of this board - how many people here are adhering to something resembling the "25 punchcard" philosophy? Not many I would wager. Within a single day you can see 15-20 different investment ideas being debated just on the first page of that board. And I'll browse them, but 99% simply don't interest me. Not that they aren't profitable potentially, but I like to keep the 'too hard' pile stacked high. So, when 99% of the time is not having anything to add to the investment ideas discussed, the politics section is an area to post and debate something.

Anthem still looks a little expensive, doesn't it? Mind sharing the napkin thesis?

Bamsec is good, rocketfinancial as well is another good one. There was a gentleman on here who I was alpha testing a financial website for, one of the tools he implemented (or tried to, I am not sure what became of it) was a way to individually whitelist/blacklist news sources. Let's say I follow FB - I don't want to see AI generated "news" articles from clickbait websites. But something like crunchbase or other tech-focused websites with quality content, or similar financial websites (WSJ, etc.) - those I would be interested in. Give me the old google finance interface, with the above whitelist news service, and BAMsec/rocketfinancial's management for company filings, and you have the greatest financial website ever created. ;D

Another 75b https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-2019-9-1028537926?utm_source=reddit.com

I am not sure. It is a good question. My assumption is their performance mimics stock market performance i.e. where we see Small/Middle market enterprises show more volatile performance under stress. For example, compare the SP500 to the Russell2000 from 2007 to present - SP500 performed "better" in the 2008 period and rebounded more successfully. I would think this behavior translates to real estate performance, as less-capitalized tenants are unable to weather the storm, so to speak. This goes to my question of modifying terms - if your tenant mix is simply not as well capitalized, is it more successful for the REIT to modify their lease terms (lower rental income) and maintain the tenant, or not?

Thanks for the recommendations - have you been able to review the performance of these NNNs under stressed market conditions? How do you view tenant mix and location mix, particularly in terms of correlated risk? If AFFO is the main driver of returns and valuation, the question is what drives AFFO. As you mention the two methods to grow AFFO are rent increases, and acquisitions - but really this means tenant and location mix (i.e. what you acquire and where). The real question is how that tenant mix behaves under stress. In such situations, do you know if REITs typically modify lease terms to work with tenants (and maintain occupancy)? My concern is large exposure to small and middle market businesses which may perform worse in a recession - and while the tenant mix may appear diversified, will it actually behave like a hedge during a recession?

Fed cuts rates again, telegraphs possibility of one more

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/business/overnight-lending-rate-spike-ny-fed/index.html Some notable items: It was the NY Fed's first such rescue operation in a decade, the last occurring in late 2008. The NY Fed announced plans late Tuesday to hold another repurchase agreement operation on Wednesday that would aim to repurchase up to an additional $75 billion. The rate on overnight repurchase agreements hit 5% on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That's up from 2.29% late last week and well above the target range set in July by the Federal Reserve, which is 2% to 2.25%. The surge continued Tuesday, with the overnight rate hitting a high of 10% before the NY Fed stepped in. The catalyst for the stress, according to Cabana, was the fact that US companies withdrew vast sums of money from banks to make quarterly tax payments to the US Treasury Department. That forced banks to draw down their reserves at the Fed.

Always the smuggler, SD! That’s why you’re posts are so interesting, what a great perspective :D I am glad to contribute simply by making the rest of you folks look so good :D I think someone did a similar exercise a few years ago, tracking the investment ideas thread post date vs. stock performance. I think he layered the number of replies into the analysis as well. And the threads with the least replies performed on average better. Also it would be interesting to layer this information vs. self-disclosed annual performance threads.

I hear Dildo is really nice this time of year. A lot of people pushing to get in there. It's a great place to relax, sit down, and watch the world go bi

Should we not discourage predatory lending simply because some people are financially savvy enough to avoid it? How selfish can you be? It’s like someone with HIV saying “don’t bother looking for a cure, it wouldn’t be fair if you found one anyways, since I’ve been taking HIV medication for 30 years!”

GDP is only growing 1-3% year so it does drag.

So I very much agree with you, in fact particularly so on the ethical roadblock (vs the actual investment thesis). In fact I would prefer if they would give up on the vaping, or at least study it more first. By comparison cigarettes are a known quantity. People have been smoking things for, hell, thousands of years and we have been studying the effects for at least decades. With cigarettes, people are making an honest decision (akin to alcohol).