LC

The problem with this is that it keeps people out of the game in "reasonable" times. Jan 2017, people thought the market was reasonably valued. A lot of people kept cash on the sidelines. That hurt as 2017 ended. IMHO, investors need to keep in mind two things: (1) financial gravity aka interest rates, and (2) long-term value. Long-term value may mean buying something at 20x earnings because firstly, nothing else is cheap, and secondly, it will continue growing value because it is a good business. I am continuously reminded of a study where someone analyzed blue-chips in the 50s/60s/70s, and calculated their earnings yield at the time, vs. using a DCF over the next 20 years and calculating what their earnings yield "should have" been. PG for example was trading at something like 25-30x earnings (aka traditionally "expensive") but really should have been trading at like 55-60x earnings because it was a good business that kept growing.

FWIW I agree on valuation. I sold my 3M shares over the summer (of course it then ran up another $20/sh so take anything I say with big ole grain of salt)

US bancorp

In terms of earnings calls (aka mgmt commentary) - I only found these useful once I already had my own opinion about the business. When you don't really know anything, it is tempting to read mgmt's comments and simply adopt their view. It is more useful to first establish your own opinion and then compare/contrast your perspective with mgmt's perspective. One thing I would note is the question, "what does management think is important, and why? does it agree with what I think is important? why or why not?"

Hard question to answer. If I had to guess, it would be I realized more and more what DROVE the valuation. What factors to focus on/are most important. One of the best exercises I did was the following: I would first read the annual report, look thru 10 years or so of financials, do whatever qualitative research, and then after all that, I would essentially have a mock negotiation. I would try and imagine two warren buffett's, one who owned the company and the other who was trying to buy the company. So two parties who were equally shrewd, already super duper rich, and each knowing as much information as the other. What would the transaction price be between those two? And I would pretty much write out a conversation where it started by the buyer offering $1 and the seller offering $1 trillion (or something equally absurd). And just triangulate some value from there. So like, the buyer would say 'well you've got 20B of debt therefore..." and the seller would go "well it just made 100M of FCF so..." Maybe it sounds silly but I'll tell you it worked really well.

I would add in some qualitative research. My best education was reading 10ks and doing some light qualitative research, then writing my price on the 10k cover, then compare to the market cap. Do that 20 times and you will learn.

Bullshit. "There is this undercurrent of a feeling like you’re prostituting yourself in order to get ahead because, let’s be real, if you’re dating someone powerful, it can open doors for you. And that’s what women who make the calculation to play the game want, but they don’t know all the risks associated with it,” she said. “If you do participate in these sex parties, don’t ever think about starting a company or having someone invest in you. Those doors get shut. But if you don’t participate, you’re shut out. You’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.” This is incorrect:. Damned if you do? Some of these women do parlay what they're doing into funding and careers they would never have had. I know some of them firsthand. Damned if you don't? There are handfuls of people who think they "deserve" funding or a promotion or whatever. Men and women. Hell, if I was born with a silver spoon and a fat trust fund, I wouldn't be working a 9-5. Color me unsympathetic.

Better to set up some liquid cooling system, SD. The truly enlightened will harvest the heat from the radiator for some use.

I've got a slipped disc from Basketball/weightlifting. Would recommend dr Stuart McGill to anyone with mild/moderate issues. I would say the fact that many people are office workers and live a sedentary lifestyle causes the most damage.

WPP - Bought on a 10% drop after Brexit was announced. Down about 10% from there :(

My condolences, mrholty. That is tragic. There was a person in an old neighborhood of mine who worked in a horse stable. There were always shady characters in and out of her apartment. My guess was she was supplying people with horse tranqs, probably for the same reason you mention.

+44.9% USD pre-tax 3M, Philip Morris, Snap-on were all sold mid-year for nice gains which did much of the lifting Cash was redeployed into Berk, Compass Minerals, Citi, Altria, DaVita, which have all increased between 10% (Altria) and 25%(DaVita) since purchases in Q3.

Happy New Year, COBF! My wife and I got some good news: our offer was accepted on a house here in Denver. So my New Year's Eve has been spent fixing up the townhouse to sell - but no complaints! May 2018 be a prosperous one for everyone!

Agreed - I was not aware of the generic vs. brand name distinction!

https://newrepublic.com/article/62975/the-temptation-st-warren Written in 1992 by Michael Lewis, criticizing Warren Buffett. It was an interesting read - I thought he made some decent points and other of his points he was making illogical jumps. But I'm curious - to the board members who have accumulated more wisdom than I, what are your thoughts looking back on this article, now 15 years later?

There is an incentive mismatch. Drug companies are incentivized to sell as much as possible. To do so they suggest/pay/coerce doctors to over-subscribe. But this is a product where from the user's POV, you would want to use as little as possible. Perhaps if there was a buyback program where you are reimbursed if you are prescribed 50 pills but only use 5.

All my rereads have been outside investing. I'm partial to Vonnegut and Hemingway myself.

Merry Christmas everyone!

I guess manager is the better descriptor here. I choose Sanjeev because I think he has the upmost ethics to go along with skill set. The others may also have this as well, but I have never met them so I don't know for sure. #teamsanjeev

http://www.gldpartners.com/chasing-efficiencies-blockchain-is-coming-to-the-logistics-world/

LC, you're a fairly young man, it's just too early for you to get into the "repair-age" with something like that. All the best to you with it. Thanks for the kind words!

Out to Colorado. Getting older and replacing the tougher activities (basketball, weightlifting) with camping/hiking and skiing.

Ah man, I wish I was still in NY. Although my back squat is a bit messed up due to a slipped disk...can still front squat over a plate though. Good luck with the search!

A Good Question for a Berkshire annual meeting would be: IF they were to institute a dividend, what amount would they choose? It would give us insight into what warren thinks is excess capital and what amount of cash is necessary.