obtuse_investor

I do not disagree with any of the data on that page, but I would encourage readers to pay close attention to the X-axis of all the charts. They aren't consistent... and are rather cherry picked to make things look dramatic. Some indicators are truly near all time bottoms (eg: interest rates), but others look rather benign when the x-axis is expanded a mere few years. caveat emptor

Modifications to Multiple Voting share Proposal have been posted on SEDAR this morning. Nothing on the press release page (yet). Here is a section. Full news release and docs: http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00002458

Well, but I am not looking for something which could “stand the test of time”… I am looking for something led by a great and still motivated entrepreneur, who is reliable and works both for himself and for all other shareholders, and who could go on doing what he does best for the next 10-15 years… UNDISTURBED. That’s all I am interested in. ;) Cheers, Gio I think we are seeking the same thing (stable compounding)... they are just different approaches to achieve the same. Frankly, I don't care how good long term compounding is accomplished. My point remains though. Mr Watsa needs to figure out how to retain the right culture that he desires for long term success. He can do it in a handful of different ways.

I am the first one to admit that these recent action looks quite bad if taken out of context. However, I don't think Mr. Watsa has suddenly turned evil after 30yrs of a solid track record. What worries me most as a long term investor is that this action stems from his fear about the stability of the internal culture. It must not be intrinsically healthy. If he needs to increase the power of his MVS to preserve the culture, I am sure he realizes that this is just a temporary measure. What tangible steps is he planning to take in the next decade to make the culture intrinsically self-sustaining, so that it can stand the test of time. Maybe he needs to learn and follow Mr. Buffett's example. Mr. Buffett claims that BRK culture would reject the wrong sort of person. It remains to be seen how that works. I would like to think that is exactly what Mr. Watsa seeks. my 2 cents.

One of the things that bugs me about this action is the timing of the announcement. It was announced, Friday evening after market close. Perhaps the Saturday globe and mail didn't pick up this news, as intended.

Are you referring to the price drop in FFH traded in C$ or US$? US$ one is negligible and probably related to the news regarding Brit. C$ one is accentuated thanks to the sharp spike CADUSD is enjoying last few days. (https://www.google.com/finance?q=CADUSD)

Prem explained the reasoning during question period at the annual meeting today. Perhaps someone who took notes can post here?

Hasn't almost everything they've done in the last decade been to make themselves antifragile? I think so too. I am not sure if that is by design or accidental. Perhaps it is a good question to ask Prem this year at the AGM...

That is an interesting question. Are you asking: (1) "in a global tsunami, which will be more robust?" Or are you asking (2) "which will be more antrifragile?" I.e. is it going to walk away from the tsunami, stronger than ever before? (Not trying to be pedantic here-- I think both questions are worth exploring) My current thinking says that my answers are: (1) FFH (2) BRK.A/B

Something I have been thinking about... And my opinion is that if FFH is all-weather/antifragile, it isn't by design. It is accidental and it may not continue to be true. Berkshire is probably more antifragile.

The leading indicator (http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/) seems to be indicating a -1% MoM and YoY. This will be interesting.

I don't appreciate dilutions like these either. Just 2 days ago, I was seriously pondering selling some shares of FFH as the valuation neared 1.45xbook (adjusted for $10 dividend we just received) but sat on my hands instead. However, these actions often present an opportunity to buy more shares if Mr. Market swoons. As for the Brit deal, even with this dilution, I suspect that these few transactions that FFH is making will be value accretive in the long run.

Watching this page every single day is my new favourite, albeit scary, passtime. http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

Thanks for posting this! I would have completely missed this if not for this board. Looks like most individual Canadians on this board would be able to take advantage of Category 7 Also, NB: Please note that currently Form T1135 cannot be filed electronically, yet.

Where is the US decoupling banter in the media?

Interesting. What are his historical returns like?

I don't know if shorting JGBs at this point is a good bet or not... I just want to quote Nietzsche because it came to my mind when I read that post. "For every man there exists a bait which he cannot resist swallowing" -- Nietzsche

You an I don't seem to have the same definition of a jackpot. Don't get me wrong, I like their results but a jackpot is at least a double. BeerBaron I concur-- jackpot is at least a double [emphasis added]. My expectation is that FFH will shine in the very long term, as compounding takes it to true jackpottian heights.

Actually I am writing it... But no cash flowing from that endeavor until now... :( Gio How can I become a reader of this newsletter? Your first step should probably be to learn Italian. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/adding-a-new-business-investment-newsletter/msg137387/#msg137387 Brilliant! I always like challenges.

Actually I am writing it... But no cash flowing from that endeavor until now... :( Gio How can I become a reader of this newsletter?

I do have a blog. I hardly post though. Being a dad last couple years sure has taken a toll on my spare time. Microblogging is all I can do now.

Congratulation Gio! Since we are all opening the kimono and boasting, I post my annual performance numbers http://invest.obtusely.com/p/performance.html and it has been quite a ride. The performance is based on no use of debt. The only leverage I have occasionally taken advantage of is BAC warrants, which have underperformed the equity anyway. :) Over the last year or two, I am thinking of switching into the lazy mode for the very long run, much like Cageyone. A market crash would be the opportunity to set the automatic compounding machine running.

I'd love to see the comparison if you are willing to share it. The only caveat is that Markel's current bond portfolio isn't because of an investment decision. It is largely the portfolio they inherited from their Alterra purchase last year. They have openly said that they are methodically reducing that bond portfolio and moving into equities. They aren't macro influenced investors, unlike FFH. (Neither is right or wrong-- just pointing out the difference). If some major dislocation happens, FFH is bound to gain big, while Markel will trot along, albeit a little slowly. Both MKL and FFH are major core positions for me.

Yes… Obvious… Then why when I asked if it were time to buy FFH again I got almost ridiculed??! ;) Gio Because, whenever you post something like that. Part of the population is busy ridiculing you. The others are too busy getting their limit orders in line. :-)

I bought some more FFH today too: 1.12xBook isn't a bad entry point, at all.