obtuse_investor

This could just be a rumour... Complete story: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Fairfax+Financial+talks+Cara+stake/8922052/story.html What I find confounding is that Fairfax is willing to buy Canadian restaurant businesses that succeed on the backs of overly indebted Canadian consumers, which is largely fueled by the soaring Canadian real estate market-- something Fairfax is well aware of. Wouldn't it be better to pick up this business couple years after the real estate market comes back in line, and restaurants are selling at discounted prices? What am I missing?

Sanjeev: after you have this sorted out, do strongly consider using 2-step verification. https://support.google.com/accounts/answer/180744?hl=en It is 2-factor authentication, which exponentially lowers the odds of someone hacking into your google account. Of course, NSA could still get in there; but that is beside the point.

Francis Chou at the Ivey Business School's Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2013/Chou_2013.htm (45min video) Looks like it is from July 19, 2013.

I am beginning to be more intrigued about this idea. Are ZROZ or EDV good ways to invest for the retail investor, in the ultra long bond?

I expect to see the 10 year well below 3 percent at some point in the next 6 months, despite the taper and taper talk Valuecfa, I am of the same opinion as you, but buying the long bond today would be an exercise in market timing. I can't come up with a good estimate of the price of the long bond with all the macroeconomic shenanigans around us. It could be a very profitable trade, but luck would have to play a larger role than skill. my 2¢

I am struggling with this issue too. Maybe we should all wait for Sony's 13.3" reader. Here is a demo video =>

Perhaps... Typical P/E is too noisy. Looking at the CAPE for Japan... since 1975, average CAPE has been 46.1! In Feb 2013, CAPE was 21.6 Source: GoldmanSachs: http://www.goldmansachs.com/s/GMeT_othermailings_attachments/63495552913647625076134.pdf

I was talking about the corporate footprint of Canada. Canada is quite a small place relative to the giant next door. In geographic terms, Canada is the second largest country by landmass. It also happens to be one of the most beautiful places on this planet. The upshot is that I can spend the rest of my life trying to see the whole place.

Are there any Canadian publications that you can recommend? Say something closer to the WSJ or the Economist maybe? Thanks in advance. I can't, really. I don't know of any. Canada is a very small place. To keep up with analysis of Canadian ongoings, I read various annual reports, blogs, institutional reports and letters to investors. There are some decent people to follow on twitter too, but not too many.

Is that why FFH had a little jump up yesterday? I don't subscribe to the Globe. It is too frequent.

Interesting report-- but filled with typos and grammatical errors. Who writes this stuff? Bunch of interns?

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- [Fairfax] Attorney Mike Bowe, with Bloomberg's Greg Farrell and Sheelah Kolhatkar discuss the indictment of SAC and the possibility that founder Steve Cohen could be charged. They speak to Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." http://www.bloomberg.com/video/will-steve-cohen-face-criminal-charges-7G4hM8nKR_OB_dA6Z6vQjA.html (~10min video)

There are no obvious listed stocks in Canada-- like homebuilders. There will be mayhem in the general Canadian equity market if and when the housing bubble does pop. I suppose, as someone living in Canada, I have shorted the housing market-- by renting the house my family lives in.

I do think that shorting Canadian banks over the next 2-3 years would be a profitable trade, I am just not wired right to do it. But I realize, others are. Here is a short thesis presentation from ValueXVail 2013 http://www.scribd.com/doc/153610244/ValueXVail-2013-Brian-Bosse

Your points are very valid and duly noted. This is a problem is all these -isms out there. I really hope that Prem's objectivity isn't compromised and the next generation person is truly capable for the job. But we can only hope. To the casual outside observer it would look and smell like nepotism. And that sort of stuff undermines confidence.

Buffett_Groupie,... You seem to be a financial doctor... ;D But seriously,... somehow I sense that Prem's son, Benjamin seems to be a little more interested in economics and finance than the Buffett boys... Peter and Howard. I might be wrong on my gut feeling, but I also know he seems to be unknown to most of us, and therefor there might be some unexpected surprises. Prem was also considered reclusive some decade ago, so this should apply even more currently to his son. No matter how qualified the next generation is, I am quite critical of nepotism.

Same here-- my bids are ready and waiting.

You are probably right. You see, human brain is an excellent pattern finding machine. It is great at finding causes even there isn't a clear one.

The proverbial shot is only going to be evident with hindsight. Perhaps it is Turkey. Perhaps it was Cyprus. Perhaps it was even implementation of Abenomics. Perhaps it is/was/will be something completely different.

After reading this post, I stumbled upon this one almost immediately. From the Buttonwood blog on The Economist:

I am interested in this too--- specifically a list that excludes cannibals that buy back irrespective of price.

Be careful. Tangible book is $8.6M, compared to book value of 20.47M. They have preferred shares outstanding that can be converted by the company at 2.15/shr. That is a $12.2M liability that doesn't show up on their balance sheet. As far as I can tell, those are perpetual.

PetHealth is quite tightly connected with Northbridge and consequently Fairfax. From their Annual Report:

You are right-- this can't go on. I am thinking of some ways that this problem will end up resolving itself over next decade or two. 1. Kids graduating college just can't take the burden (especially with interest rates rise) and simply default. They don't have much to loose. Or they leave the country, taking the talent with them. The lender is left holding the bag. 2. Some kids take the austerity path and slave through a decade or so, slowly getting out of the debt hole. 3. Enter the MOOCS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_open_online_course). MOOCS gain a lot of credibility and evolve into a form that can take on the established universities. Universities devolve into just another credential rewarding authorities. Also, universities revert back to what they are _really_ about. They are about advancing and preserving human knowledge. They were never meant to help students get a job. Another advantage from the MOOCs will be democratization of knowledge, which will be a great boon to the planet as a whole. It would spark up billions of current preoccupied brains. Not to mention, this will bring down the cost significantly.

Hartville's press release reveals more, like the sale price: