writser

I understand you are very excited (which is a bad frame of mind when trading, but whatever) but could you please bundle all your one-liners by editing your last post? Probably wise to take a step back and smoke a cigarette or whatever for a few minutes.

I calculate NAV of USO to be 2.42, which means the premium to NAV is around 19% I think it's likely we could see liquidation this week. Buying some shorter term OOTM options. Futures traders may press. Watch for June to continue to fall Buying a lot more Friday $1s June under $12.....holy shit USO NAV is 2.25.....I think they could hit 0 I actually think it's technically possible for USO to go negative if the June contract goes negative. No, that is not possible .. USO interests are structured as a limited partnership. The GP is on the hook for any losses.

Gotta give the market a bit more credit than this, right? That should be priced in. Or you could just short the June futures now and make a few gazillion in a month when people figure out they can't take delivery. Again. "Damn, I'm selling my crude for minus $13 per barrel the last day of trading. Just like four weeks ago. And nothing has changed! Didn't see that coming". Too many unknowns to price in. Do the OPEC+ cuts (starting May 1) do enough? Does demand return in 'V' shape as developed regions 'reopen'? Just like with stocks, the price is a voting machine in the short run. Yes, many unknowns, but a known fact is that the May crude future traded at a double-digit negative price one day before expiry (when liquidity has already disappeared) because apparently some speculators couldn't take delivery in Cushing. I'd be very, very, very surprised if nobody learns anything from that and it will be a repeat event that the front future drops from basically the spot price a month before settlement to minus $whatever a day before settlement each month. I'd happily take a decent sized bet that something similar won't happen again in 1/2/3/x months. If you work at an oil trading firm and you are forced to sell front month futures at $-15 during a massive squeeze just before expiry your boss might say "don't fuck up again" if he's a nice guy. But three weeks later he'll be standing at your desk to warn you that you are fucking fired if you get into the same spot again. As for what the spot oil price is in a month I agree: I have no clue.

Gotta give the market a bit more credit than this, right? That should be priced in. Or you could just short the June futures now and make a few gazillion in a month when people figure out they can't take delivery. Again. "Damn, I'm selling my crude for minus $13 per barrel the last day of trading. Just like four weeks ago. And nothing has changed! Didn't see that coming".

I read it, but I thought "All Quiet on the Western Front" from Remarque was much better written and a more powerful book. Have you read that one too? And yes, the Peter Jackson project was nice.

Good post. I agree - I'm coping very well with the financial side (or let's just say: the losses :P). I guess the hard part is not going crazy / trying to get any work done while being locked down in your house for a few months with the entire family. No schools, daycare, cleaning lady, pubs, grandparents, sports, whatever. I've been preparing for this for years though (some would call that being asocial) so I'm doing relatively fine!

I used to think the Republican party was 'pro-life'.

Sure. In practice however I'm afraid there is basically zero overlap between a) the subset of the population that should be far more scared and b) the subset of the population who would even consider reading an article like that.

Worried about the virus? yes, quite a bit. Worried about my personal financial situation? no, not really.

Buying banks around tangible book during "extinction level events" has been an extremely profitable strategy historically. 65 million years ago the rodents made a killing buying Tyranno-Sachs and Velociraptor-Stanley when they were trading below book during the panic shortly after the meteor struck. On a more serious note, if you really believe this: Then why the fuck are you still posting ten times a day on this forum? No family to help? Food to hoard? I guess you are fully prepped in your missile bunker, waiting for the apocalypse?

If you have nothing extreme to add to the discussion you probably won't bother posting. I think that's the same reason the politics section is super polarized. I hardly have anything sensible to say about the virus either, but in my opinion it will be very interesting to see what will happen with the number of cases in Italy the next few weeks, now that the country and its citizens seem to be aware of how serious this thing is and have taken drastic measures (and are considering even more). If the number of cases there will continue to grow at the historic pace I guess that that implies very bad things for the rest of the free developed world in the near future. If they can get it somewhat under control, not even necessarily Singapore-style 'if you leave your house you lose your residence permit'-style or China 'we weld your door shut'-style under control, but making the public aware of the risks, slowing the spreading rate and getting the situation in their hospitals to manageable levels I would be a lot more optimistic. I live in a country where the prime minister banned shaking hands in a press conference and then shook hands immediately afterwards with the head of the local CDC .. ( https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-handshake-dutch-prime-minister-mark-rutte-netherlands-a9390341.html ) . That doesn't exactly inspire confidence either :) . On the other hand a lot of people are already working from home, cancelling events and meetings, hotels are underbooked, etc. We'll see if that is enough. It is my opinion that a lot of countries (and their citizens), including mine, seem too lackadaisical with their approach. But then again I'm a bit of a hypochondriac and no medical expert. And it is reassuring to see that when the shit really hits the fan adequate measures can quickly be taken, "even" in Italy. It remains to be seen if that gets things under control, but what happened in China and South Korea seems to suggest that it helps. A lot. The US response seems extremely lackadaisical to me too but I thought this was an interesting opposing take by Tyler Cowen (link): On a personal/emotional level I hate this shit, I'm scared mostly for friends and family and if I listened to my gut the house would be stacked with beans and rice and I would start assaulting everybody who's coughing in public. We bought some extra groceries but I guess that's mostly an outlet for my fear that my significant other magnanimously tolerates. In terms of investing I try to stay a bit more rational. I think this has the potential to be very bad but I have a diversified portfolio, lots of cash and cash boxes / short term situations. I think my portfolio is relatively robust and prepared and even if I lose 50% I can handle it. I really don't think it will get to that. But I'm not too tempted to 'buy the dip' either and go all-in at valuations we've seen a few months ago. That's not my style. I guess for me it's just business as usual, looking for interesting special situations / balance sheet plays. Maybe I'm a bit more careful right now. Though when people start coining terms like 'extinction level events' I'm tempted to think that some people are overreacting .. Look at the situation in Italy. It is a fucking disaster, has the potential to get much worse but whatever happens life will go on, good companies will survive and the stock market does not go to zero. So far for my nuanced view (or is it?). I'm not interested in discussing the following but I really don't understand the 'it's just the flu, nothing we can do, a lot of old people will die, business as usual' crowd. The situation in Italy / China / South Korea quite clearly suggest it's a little bit worse than that and that delaying / containing the spread is possible and could save quite a bit of lives if hospitals cannot handle the caseload otherwise .. Not to mention the possibility of a vaccine, cure, seasonal influences or the fact that even if you 'only' prevent a million people from getting sick in a big country you already save a shitload of man-years. Right now I'd rather have the South Korea / China response than the US response, however 'futile' or 'uneconomic' their measures are.

"Extinction" of what? Common sense.

It seems that when the shit _really_ hits the fan preppers still prefer gold over virtual coins .. Gold up ~7% the last month, bitcoin down ~22%. Though I have to admit I didn't look at Ripple. Maybe that's the best coin to store wealth. Heard good things about NEM too. Down 33% the last few weeks so there should be a significant margin of safety now given their Catapult roadmap.

I followed you into WEIN...thx for alert. Could be missing something .. Have been trying to reach out to both parties but to no avail.

UDFI, WEIN.

Circuit breakers.. Pffff, communists :P . Even in Italy they continue trading.

This forum has degenerated over the past few years but this is a new low. I would say vitriol like this is inexcusable but that’s up to Parsad. At the very least you should delete that post and apologize like a decent human being.

I'm sure Mike Pence will pray the virus away.

I do the same. That doesn't even have to mean these companies are fraudulent - I just don't want to own something I don't understand. It is pretty clear to me that Enron would belong in that pile. As did Valeant, as does Tesla.

No? Because of such sentiments I think situations like this are likely to be mispriced. I suggest you try to see it as an exciting hobby like sky diving or swimming with sharks. Only instead of doing something actually dangerous you have to read tedious documents and e-mail and call with office clerks all around the world. Same adrenaline kick but much safer. And you get paid to play. Seriously, can it get any better?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/02/12/1581518847000/Enron--blast-from-the-past/ Good read. Links to some really nerdy in-depth analysis of the Enron fiancials: http://archives.cpajournal.com/2003/0403/features/f042403.htm .

Have I peaked? That could very well be. I don't know if I can be this considerate and politically correct forever, John. I'm working with a pea-sized brain here. Greg, I repeat, please let me know if you are interested in a private forum for you and your big-brained buddies. I have received an overwhelming number of PM's from people who thought that would be an excellent idea. The consensus seems to be that you have been horribly abused on this forum. Thanks to this thread people started to realize that they are holding you and your friends back from reaching their full potential, i.e. compounding at 60%+ p.a. without leverage by market timing US large caps. Something that the pea-sized brains here like me and thepupil could never achieve nor understand. And we, or at least I, turn that incomprehension into bitterness and envy. A very bad habit.

Sorry, I don't mean to nitpick because it's a very productive discussion. But Euroclear would not be the custodian. It would be the depository. The custodian is who's between the broker and Euroclear. So the broker deposits the shares at it's custodian, which in turn keeps them at Euroclear. Yea, it's annoying. Yes, I think you are correct in some cases, though I thought Euroclear is a CSD - a depository but also offering custodial services. But maybe that service is optional and /or there is another intermediary - I don't know for sure. I also don't know how it works in the USA exactly. If you have some background reading on this topic it would be appreciated if you could share it. You seem to know quite a bit yourself. I worked on the trading floor. When the back office fucked something up (which invariably happened) you had to know your stuff a little bit. Couldn't berate them otherwise .. Also, I'm weird like that too. I think it's fascinating how many people, even in the financial industry, have absolutely no clue about what happens behind the scenes.

John: shares can be held by multiple custodians. What custodian your Danish broker uses is not particularly relevant. Spekulatius can see on his IB daily statements where his assets are held. I'm pretty sure it is Euroclear - which is a confusing name because in this case it is the custodian, not the clearer. Again, not 100% sure here but 99%.

Yes, good suggestion. If you have the shares at Fido you could get them to call Gilbert. Some of the solutions I outlined are probably easier there (I guess, it being a full-service broker) than at IB (though IB also has a trading desk).