Blake Hampton

I'm starting to feel like this is about to absolutely murder the U.S. auto industry. It says the last time China halted exports of rare earths was with Japan for two months in 2010, and they started with us here on April 4; it's been two months now. NYT: U.S. Dependence on China for Rare Earth Magnets Is Causing Shortages NYT: What to Know About China’s Halt of Rare Earth Exports "China’s dominance is greatest for seven rare earths that it has mostly stopped exporting since early April: dysprosium, gadolinium, lutetium, samarium, scandium, terbium and yttrium. These are mined almost exclusively in China and Myanmar and are among the hardest to separate chemically. For metals like dysprosium and terbium, so-called heavy rare earths that are used for heat-resistant magnets, China’s refineries produce up to 99.9 percent of the world’s supply."

Stupid ass investing strategies with other people's money. The true American way.

The Fallacy Of U.S. Oil Dominance

Basically everyone in the energy industry is saying that the Permian is currently plateauing; all the other large U.S. basins have been in open decline for years now. Also, reserves being discovered are tiny relative to current production, and decline rates are extreme. Rystad's full-cycle breakeven is calculated around $63 a barrel but... An interesting blog that I read points out how they think "true" full-cycle breakeven is actually around $90 a barrel when you consider both debt and the costs surrounding well clean up. I'm too tired to find actual sources right now.

Just saw the Economist is all.

I like your thinking.

This week's special report was interesting, and also kind of sad. Private credit and private equity are both doo-doo.

What'll most likely happen is that orange son of a bitch will try to blame it all on Powell.

I would say Reagan started the false ideology that deficits don't matter. Mandatory spending was a constant, while republicans always come in and cut taxes like clockwork. Edit: Democrats also did their fair share. I'd agree that "the US Treasury is money good," but I'd also argue you can have quite a bit of pain before the Fed decides to fulfill that promise. Every single time they bail out the system with liquidity is another test of confidence; I wouldn't expect them to do it until they absolutely have to. It will be interesting to see how they try to spin it this time. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll have another pandemic up our sleeve to blame this one on.

I would say long-term, oil’s a cinch. Short-term, $50 a barrel looks likely.

1000th post mfs

Here’s arguably the most important American banker who’s ever lived, telling us that a credit crisis is looming and that the bond market is on thin ice. Remember Buffett mentioning how he primarily focuses on balance sheets? If you own anything that's dependent on well-functioning credit markets, you really ought to take a look at the balance sheet and figure out whether it can survive a relatively prolonged period without them. Jamie has been sitting here warning banks for years that they need to get their act together before shit eventually hits the fan—and, of course, almost no one listened to him. I'm quickly coming to realize that this is seemingly a common trait among humans. If Congress had taken half a fucking second to consider anything Buffett has ever said, we might not be in any of these problems in the first place. But, of course, no one wants to listen. "Unfortunately, it may be that we need that to wake us up." — Jamie Dimon

Watch him speak in the video I sent. I really don’t think this is him being cautious — I think he’s genuinely trying to warn people. He’s been doing this for a while now, just not this blatantly.

I recommend watching from 16:32 to 23:18:

+1

Ignore this man at your own peril.

I'm honestly surprised Jamie would be this open about it. Monday will certainly be interesting.

I completely disagree. I don't think there is anyone in the world better to listen to about macro right now than both Jamie and Warren. No one is worried about what could be one the most significant financial events in our nation's history, and the dumbest part is that it's been staring us dead in the face. When the head of one of the biggest dealers in Treasury markets tells you that a bond market crisis is coming, you would be apt to listen.

Quote of the decade: "Thinking throughout the US is running at a special needs Kindergarten level."

@wabuffo's argument was likely sound before this stupid trade policy took place; the thing about the 20s is that it still ended in a depression.

What's up with the black eye?

What's currently happening in Gaza will do nothing more than fuel future terrorism.

I still don't understand why no one is talking about Sudan. I read that possible deaths from famine could be in the 10 - 25 million range.

I think writing can be a good way of reinforcing ideas that make someone a better investor.

I dream of one day becoming a better writer.