thepupil

Todd Combs was a financials focused long/short manager. He made 34% net of fees 2005-2010 (~6%/year) during a very crazy time. Unsure if it was market neutral type of fund or what kind of net exposure. https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-DLB-28105 The fund has also had strong relative performance during extremely challenging times in the financial services sector, outperforming its benchmark by roughly 80 percentage points since inception in November 2005 (positive 34% cumulative net return for Castle Point since launch vs. negative 46% for the XLF).

any chance he did some huge charitable donation concurrent w/ his roth conversion, like set up a foundation? not sure how exactly the charitable deduction worked then and now. it's particularly puzzling in tha roth conversions are ordinary income which is hard to offset.

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx there's also some good stuff here regarding home equity and typical LTV

https://constructioncoverage.com/research/where-residents-have-paid-off-homes#:~:text=According to Census Bureau data,to rise significantly during recessions. it's surprising to me, but 38% of homes are owned free and clear, but looking at the data, a lot of that is on the lower end (example West Virginia has the highest amount of free and clear homes, but that's with a median value of $85K). Proud Maryland resident, where only 16% (the lowest in the country) don't partake in the leverage!

From 3/30/2015 FIH total return: 7% in USD (1.1% / yr) MSCI India 62% in USD (8.1% / yr) MSCI India Small Cap 85% in USD (10.4% / yr) Price to book: 1.2x ---> 0.7x, w/ peak of 1.4x and trough of 0.4x in covid depths Almost any publicly traded investment company is destined to eventually trade at a big discount and go from loved to hated to maybe loved again. I need to play a little catch up and missed buying this at the juicy lows, but probably not a terrible time to have a look at this given the long term underperformance and sentiment correction (from premium to discount). BVPS has gone from $9.5 to $18 since 6/2014, so it's not like it's destined to destroy value. But price has really mattered. If you paid a big premium, your return probably sucked. If you got a big enough discount/bought into bad macro, you probably are sitting on a decent IRR.

I pulled Berkshire's annual for year ended 1998, when 10 yr treasuries yielded 6% and were very much positive / real. Berkshire was running very low duration back then too. Buffett has always had the 70's seared in his mind and seems to have been on the wrong side of the long duration trade for decades. I am not saying he is wrong. I think the cash / very ST FI makes sense in the context of the rest of his portfolio. But I don't think Berkshire is positioned any differently today than 5,10,20+ years ago. So I think his strategy is consistent. Run an overcapitalized insurance company. Don't take (much, if any) duration/credit risk. Own equities. I don't think it has to do with the current inflationary trends of 2021.

Not a bad 6 months for this group of overcapitalized high-ish quality securities. I must say that I'm having trouble getting too excited about stuff lately. Not going to cash, and been buying large cap tech / the chinese tech holco's/proxies (Prosus/Softbank etc.), but don't feel quite as chipper about the portfolio right now. FMBL: +20% LAACZ: +18.5% BRK/B: +22% EQC: -1.6% WEAK! BSM / DMLP: +35%, +26% GOOG, FB, MSFT: +33%, +23%,+15.5% EQR/AVB/CPT/ESS/MAA: +29-32% SPY: +10.9% VT: + 9%

A smidge of Prosus and Softbank.

the math on that sounds much better than BPT

if you want to go crazy, BPT is an interesting OTM option on oil. it is very likely worthless and is designed to become worthless with the passage of time as the royalty recieved is equal to the WTI price minus an ever increasing number (see below for rough guesstimate) and production is declining. It stopped paying distributions in 2020 and is about to run out of cash and at risk of being dissolved any day. But if oil keeps going up, the royalty will be positive again and distributions will flow. If oil went to $100 (and stayed there) there'd be something like $15 of future distributions. On an intrinsic value basis, that kind of 4-5x is not that interesting. you'd make more money in futures options. but given BPT's history of trading wildly above intrinsic value as retail can't properly price it*, you could see the stock move to a multiple thereof. At $100 for 2022, BPT would distribute ~$2/share (per quarter, $8/year). all it takes is some dumb seeking alpha folks to value it at a 10% yield for an 20 bagger at $80 (though it'd be at 4x intrinsic value then). probably worth a few 10's of bps and nothing more. also my super in depth work on VAL has rewarded me with 25% over my 8 long days of hodling a huge 50 bp position. *I dug up an old model from 6 years ago and may not be properly pricing it myself, but i assure you mine is better than 99% of BPT's holders 2021: $60 2022: $65 2023: $72 2024: $78 2025: $86 2026: $94 2027: $101

y'know just your everyday guy with $2-$4 million bucks taking $10K starter positions measured in bps

@Gregmal you have done it again! Boring Shit Capital Partners now if only I could send you a tip for naming my firm.

hmmm, I do not know and will look into it. It was top of the line (all poured concrete (no wood or block), all impact glass, overengineered) when they built it, but that was 20 years ago. in maryland, I pay a hilariously low 9 basis points / year relative to home value. It seems so low i regularly check to make sure it's adequate replacement costs and all that stuff. Through GEICO, but actually Homesite.

I doubt there's a 13-F, because according to 10-k it doesn't look like AAPL owns any equities in its "marketable securities" see page 40 of the 10-K, just a bunch of short term fixed income. there's one vague "non US government securities" but I think that means foreign fixed income (like gilts or something) https://www.bamsec.com/filing/32019320000096?cik=320193

whoa! that's cheap in florida. my parents pay about 1% of property value (couple miles inland on east coast)

I am 106% invested at this time. In practice, that means I have ~70% of my portfolio that's 100% long (IRA's plus an unlevered taxable) and 30% that is 120%. Even then the margin requirment on the account w/ all the leverage is about 40% of NLV. several of my holdings are excessively capitalized w/ 10-30% of their equity in net cash and I have a 6% position in PSTH, so overall net exposure is lower than 100%, but I do have 3% or so in options, 2/3 of which are calls which provide additional upside/leverage. Overall the portfolio "acts" like a slightly levered long portfolio. 100% of my paycheck goes straight to the portfolio. <100% goes out as a margin loan to pay the bills. Always be buying. No market timing. this is what works for me. others can disagree.

Some anecdata from my neck of the woods https://www.redfin.com/MD/Chevy-Chase/23-Primrose-St-20815/home/10640879?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link $360K 1983 sale price $2.7mm 2017 sale price $3.7mm 2021 list price $4.5mm Sold $900/foot The home was renovated in 2018, but not structurally, new systems/refresh/kitchen, no more than $500K at most It's starting to feel a bit bubbly. EDIT: you can actually see the old 2017 listing photos on redfin and compare.

ha, there aren't any inspections anymore, here. when we bought 2019 there was no such thing as an inspection contingency, but now in many cases, there's no such thing as a pre-inspection. In 2019 at least you could pay the $600 and know what you're getting into. Now ya just gotta put in the offer. All cash, no contingencies, no inspections!

Castanza, I am so impressed. the reason i buy RE through interactive brokers is that I have no earthly idea how to do any of that type of stuff and find it so intimidating. I have zero handy-man type of skills, much less gut rehab.

you probably have people moving from other areas of the country marveling at how cheap things are at $180 / foot. my house has gone from $500 / foot to $600 / foot since 2019 and there was recently an eyepopping sale nearby that went for $400K over ask / $800 / foot. that feels like a bubble, but I guess someone really wanted this 90 year old house w/ a very unique for the area separate 6 car garage (which can be converted to a guest house). https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/6130-Utah-Ave-NW-20015/home/9994389?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

to update on the Wisconsin Place tracking April 2020: 2BR's: $3,600 October 2020: 2BR's $2,400 April 2021: 2BR's $3,100 Nature appears to be healing for yuppie apartments. where i used to live, my 2BR unit is now $3,100. this is what i rented it for in 2016 which had dropped from $3,400 ish due to some new supply that had recently came on, we locked this in for 2 years, it got raised to $3,300, then we chose to not renew in 2019 when it got bumped to $3,500 (and it was time for us to buy). using this anecdata, rents are staging strong recoveries from the lows, but aren't near peak (not sure if they get to peak for a while). I think all this is mostly priced in and don't think the high quality blue chip MF REITs are terribly attractive (unless we go full Europe/Japan etc in terms of rates or Canada / Oz in terms of housing prices lol.

agreed. posts take up so much space and 80% of my desktop is just grey or white blank space. i am generally quite appreciative of this site and how it's run and try not to be a negative nancy, but the space efficiency is awful. Condensing on the activity stream mitigates this a little, but not fully.

I don't have any insight and haven't looked into the companies. Just gave them a 5 minute look to see why their ROE inflected to much higher from the prior years. In general, mortgage banking is quite cyclical given refi volumes are related to the refi incentive (difference between current rates and rates that mortgage borrowers have) as well as home purchase volume. But again, I haven't looked into any of these specific names.

I'd be careful extrapolating one year. In First Savings case, they feasted upon mortgage banking. In general, small banks might have fee producing businesses that are a larger % of the earnings and therefore have high ROE's. [quote]Noninterest Income.  Noninterest income increased $87.2 million, or 199.0%, from $43.9 million for the year ended September 30, 2019 to $131.1 million for the year ended September 30, 2020.  The increase was due primarily to an increase in mortgage banking income of $84.8 million. The increase in mortgage banking income is due to production from the secondary-market residential mortgage lending segment that commenced operations in April 2018. Net gains on the sale of loans guaranteed by the SBA also increased $1.1 million for 2020.  In 2019, noninterest income increased $30.6 million, or 229.9%, from $13.3 million for the year ended September 30, 2018 to $43.9 million for the year ended September 30, 2019.  The increase was due primarily to increases in mortgage banking income and real estate lease income of $30.7 million and $589,000, respectively.  These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the net gain on sale of loans guaranteed by the SBA of $924,000.  The increase in mortgage banking income is due to production from the secondary-market residential mortgage lending segment that commenced operations in April 2018.  The increase in real estate lease income for 2019 is due to the acquisition in October 2018 of a commercial office building that now serves as the Company’s new corporate headquarters, a portion of which is leased to other tenants.

I took 2 things away from this. 1. Your life sounds very nice and congratulations on this set up. Sounds like a great family setup and overall lifestyle. 2. Holy shit, I knew Canada housing was expensive but that is another level of insanity. That’s like less half the gross rental yield in my area, and many would consider housing in wealthy suburban DC to be “expensive”.