Hektor

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/hegseth-set-to-seek-8-spending-shift-at-pentagon-as-doge-looms Hegseth Set to Seek 8% Spending Shift at Pentagon Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan to reduce projected US military spending by 8% over the next five years would spare southwest border enforcement, the Air Force’s newest drone program, nuclear weapons modernization and preparations for a clean audit, according to a new memo to the services. Hegseth listed 17 areas that “may not be included by the services and components in their 8% decrease.” In addition to border enforcement, the exempt list includes the Virginia-class submarine, what it terms “executable surface ship programs,” homeland missile defense, the Air Force’s new Collaborative Combat Aircraft, one-way attack drones, “priority critical cybersecurity, munitions and Indo-Pacom construction projects” and private sector medical care.

Agree. However, it is impossible for us to know today whether market will provide a fabulous opportunity in the future to those who missed this big fish.

True, only with the benefit of hindsight. Let's go back to 2019 for a moment. There is no way of telling that these opportunities will materialize.

https://fortune.com/2025/02/18/why-xi-jinping-met-with-top-leaders-from-alibaba-huawei-tencent-meituan-xiaomi-and-more/ Why Xi Jinping met with top leaders from Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, and more "Chinese President Xi Jinping met with several prominent Chinese tech entrepreneurs on Monday in a major show of support. State media reported that Xi hosted Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma, Meituan CEO Wang Xing, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun alongside Unitree founder and CEO Wang Xingxing, DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, Tencent founder Pony Ma, BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu, and CATL CEO Robin Zeng. Together, the executives represent chipmakers, electric carmakers, and AI developers that Xi hopes will help China reduce its reliance on U.S. alternatives. In a speech, Xi urged the executives “to maintain their competitive spirit and have confidence in the country’s future,” as a Bloomberg report put it. China is the world’s second-largest economy but its momentum has slowed and its trade war with the U.S. has rattled supply chains. Xi also promised to eliminate unreasonable fees or fines impeding entrepreneurs in the state-dominated economy. “It is necessary to resolutely remove all kinds of obstacles to the equal use of production factors and fair participation in market competition,” Xi told the entrepreneurs, according to a Xinhua report. How far will Beijing actually go to support the private sector? It remains to be seen. But entrepreneurs like Jack Ma surely remember that it wasn’t so long ago that the Chinese government was willing to scuttle the country’s largest IPO in the name of alignment."

After the not so distant episode of muscling business leaders, will capital flow in?

Here we go again. https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-sales-portfolio-holdings-92567500 Warren Buffett Is Out of Step With Markets. Berkshire Hathaway Keeps Selling Stocks.

Noooooo. Let the stock price (significantly) trail intrinsic value for a while.

I need to revisit this one.

I feel if FAIRFAX changed their name from all caps to a mixed cap fAIrfax, the multiple will explode.

@Xerxes Thanks for this. I've looked at EB when looking at BWXT, which is a sub contractor/supplier to EB. BWXT is a monopoly of interest to me. It's always pricey :(.

It's all @Viking's fault

Does the regulations/rules allow this?

Not necessarily. I think a carrier group has the means to defend itself against hypersonic missiles but it does become a number game. https://nypost.com/2025/02/13/world-news/uss-harry-s-truman-aircraft-carrier-involved-in-collision-near-middle-east-port/ USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier crashes into merchant ship near Middle East port

Will this matter to BRK? It’s one thing to own a few % of a $25B company and agitate. But owning a % of a few $T company is a tall order. I believe WEB alluded somewhere to the size as a barrier against activists.

Yeah, I doubt the US nuke powered carriers and subs are going anywhere anytime soon.

They also seem to have a staffing problem, unable to recruit and retain people. Not sure why. On the flip side, Navy seems to back them. It will be interesting to see if DOGE will go after them on this sector.

That's an interesting take. They seems to be a monopoly/duopoly in most of their lines. Did Covid kill them? Looks like inflation too could be a problem for them.

@KJP Do you still own this? Are you buying today

Wanna try enough to sleep well?

+1

From NYTimes How sweeping are the tariffs? All goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff, according to the executive orders. The orders also placed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The auto and electric equipment sectors in Mexico are most exposed to disruption from sweeping tariffs, as is mineral processing in Canada, according to economists at S&P Global. In the United States, the largest risks are to farming, fishing, metal and auto production.

US/CAN and US/MEX Railroads may be an opportunity to look at.

Is all of these aimed at China, to prevent the Chinese from avoiding tariffs by setting up shop in CAN/MEX?