Hektor

From interviews, it sounded like Munger gave him some play money, which turned out very well.

Could it be that the bazooka is not as big as they thought it was? $3T during zirp is probably less than $3T at 5%?

If inflation is good for the borrower, and since US is a borrower, why would the Fed want to tame inflation? Why not keep it simmering and inflate away the debt?

Look at all the alligators in FFH’s moat With shareholders like these, FFH need not be concerned about shorts, I guess.

Thank you.

Why do you think so? What might cause either the time line to change or the bps to be different? Asking only to understand.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-property-crisis-is-causing-pain-for-many-318efe30 The property crisis saga continues. "The problems appear to be getting worse, and observers are wondering how much of the damage will hit the country’s economy. The property sector produces about a quarter of China’s annual economic growth, and it comprises roughly 70% of household wealth, as citizens have long thought of it as the safest place for their savings. The problems are leading to losses for domestic and overseas investors, to a wave of layoffs from distressed firms. But one problem that’s harder to gauge is the degree of discontent wrought by apartments and houses left unfinished by indebted developers. Nomura analysts estimated that at the end of 2022, there were about 20 million such units. Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor project tallied 1,777 demonstrations linked to the property sector between June 2022 and October 2023, the majority of which were related to unfinished units."

https://fortune.com/2024/02/13/what-is-the-current-inflation-rate-consumer-price-index-january/ Will this push rate cuts further down the road?

And deal with the unintended consequences of that decision!

Good one @Xerxes

Understood. Overtime, what credibility will MW have? Once they go after high profile companies and are exposed as nothing burgers, why would stocks crash on their report?

That, in my view, is not honorable. MW should have approached FFH for comments before going public with their thesis, in my opinion.

I read it as Welch at GE

+1

And, don’t miss God’s Own Country - Kerala https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Kerala

Huy Fong has started to reappear on the shelves, particularly in Asian stores. It’s unclear if their brand is now impaired relative to what it was before. It amazes me that these two managed to kill a partnership that was minting money for decades.

@Eng12345 After reading your log and the picture, I had to look up Buc-cee’s. It’s very impressive. https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/11/22/why-are-buccees-gas-stations-so-popular/71342752007/ And, it’s not a truck stop. Amazing.

Sriracha, Huy Fong Foods’ iconic fiery-red chili-garlic sauce, had risen to become the stuff of business legend. That spicy, slightly sweet, good-on-everything sauce, in the instantly recognizable bottle with its white rooster emblem and bright green nozzle, was the brainchild of David Tran, who had first devised the recipe and sold the stuff in L.A. in 1980 as a Vietnamese refugee starting a new life for his family. The green-tipped bottles of Huy Fong Food’s Sriracha could be found in one in 10 American kitchens and on the International Space Station. Craig Underwood, a fourth-generation California farmer and owner of Underwood Ranches supplied all Huy Fong’s chilies, and Tran was Underwood Ranches’ only pepper buyer. An epic fallout between that two left millions without their favorite hot sauce. https://fortune.com/2024/01/30/sriracha-shortage-huy-fong-foods-tabasco-underwood-ranches/

Interesting article from Fortune. Seems like China will do well. Not so sure about non-Chinese companies or investors doing business in China. https://fortune.com/2024/02/02/china-us-geopolitical-tensions-business-economic-rivalry-supply-chains/ A snippet from the article: What is a U.S. company’s best strategy in today’s China? In the near term, the answer depends on its industry and its business relationships. The future looks bright in industries that aren’t technologically sensitive. With China still welcoming many U.S. consumer goods and services, McDonald’s recently announced plans to add thousands more restaurants. “We’re incredibly bullish on the opportunity,” CEO Chris Kempczinski tells Fortune. “There’s no reason China couldn’t be our largest market.” Like other U.S. companies, McDonald’s set up its China operation as a freestanding entity that pays dividends to the parent; McDonald’s owns 48% and state-owned China International Trust Investment Corp. owns 52%. U.S. financial services companies have performed well in China because they achieve efficiencies by being global. Chinese finance companies, in contrast, have a poor record outside China; for example, few Westerners know of ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) even though it’s the world’s largest bank by revenue. But last December the CCP published an article stating that the finance sector will be expected to follow Marxist principles. In practice, U.S. firms may now struggle to invest Chinese clients’ funds in U.S.-based assets. Consulting firms face an even dicier future, as the Bain and Mintz raids underscore. Recent laws broadly regulating how companies can possess data or move it across borders are especially restrictive for consulting firms, since their business is gathering, analyzing, and communicating data. Facing the toughest futures are companies making products that China wants to produce on its own. As an executive with decades of China experience notes, “If you are anywhere near a product that has been put under export controls by the U.S. government”—sectors include semiconductors, AI, robotics, biotech, and more—“you know the Chinese government is doing anything it can to support your Chinese replacement.” Other high-priority technologies for China include pharmaceuticals, aerospace, electronics, and renewable energy. Going against Chinese competitors in any of them will be a long, hard slog.

Yeah, this will be interesting

A Taylor Swift tour of China might spark its economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/taylor-swift-wows-chinese-women-tired-of-xi-s-conservative-era Taylor Swift Wows Chinese Women Tired of Xi’s Conservative Era

What do you all think about any after effects? e.g. some regulatory body starting a review, diverting FFH time and money.

Whatever the merit of the recent short thesis, I guess it jolted many investors who knew the company’s business well to examine if there is any holes in their understanding.