moatrep

How do you size the options? How much is a big bet, or a regular one, and what size of the portfolio options occupy? Thanks

I slept on that one. After Keiko Fujimori won it was obvious .. But I stopped following. Aprox 13$ for what I understand and has to close before september. Quite a good arbitrage.

Have you looked at Harrow? Looks like they are talking about 750m in revenue for 28, and mkap is 1.15b. Growing at >25% cagr. And with new lines also coming after 28. Some people I respect are talking about it as a candidate for multi bagger Just got intriged and wondering if you are following. Thanks!

INBX, bought a shitload. I keep MTY group, fairfax, Exor, Cvrx and a little of Markel.

@whatstheofficerproblem You can add INBX from officer. If their new drug works it may be worth 8b. Current market cap 1.8b. And the other drugs may justify that market cap alone. Still all of them are on early phases, but the one that gives the asymmetry will report some results this month. Please officer correct me if something wrong. I'm heavy on MTY, but I think the idea is originally from @frommi

There is the theory UTHR will post the last bullshit, so we will see if we can get some price. Lqda reports 11th.

I think the insurrance companies will give you a + from float (more so Fairfax), berkshire will behave like a fusion between cash and the s&p500, then you have 15% in cash, and the others I cannot talk that much, as I don't know. But you have around 58% pretty passive ( fairfax and berkshire act as money managing firms). I combine something similar with short term opportunities, like arbitrages, or assymetrical bets, like recently biopharmas. May go on margin, up to 15%-20% with this. But I'm trying to build my wealth, if I already had enough or something disproporsionate to my income I would put 33% in berkshire and that way hold enough "cash" to survive a downturn (inspired in the 10% cash rule). But will be nice to hear how people add more Ai to all of this.

The thing with ilegal immigration it is like issuing shares of your country in exchange for human capital. If you don't control your borders Venezuela and other countries will dump their prisions in your country or make nets of ilegal activities. Even if you dilute your shares for someone that just crossed a desert and doesn't have any form of education is arguably a bad trade. Not to talk about Europe where they dilute their shares in exchange of liabilities. So the Republicans wanting to regulate this is the right way to go, you can try to issue shares in exchange of human capital that will add more than what you give, if left unchequed you will most likely lose on the trade.

Pearl abyss is quite interesting to follow. They have hit with a game and have a top engine of their own. The current valuation is fair, around 30x my stimate of earnings. But next game may take 3 years, and last time they took much more time than expected with the other project (arguably because they were making the engine that took half of the time). The stimate of earnings is grabbing the net profit of 10m copies of Crimson Desert, sold around 50$ (retail price is 70$, but making adjustment for promos and physical copies), and with marketing around 200m. You get 300m profit, and divide by the cycle to the next ip, maybe 3 to 5 years from now. So it may take 4 years you get a profit per year of 60m net on the engine and ips. Or 1.8b market cap (30x pe) Plus cash of 400m 2.2b.. current market cap is 2.45b I didn't take the development costs because they financed the development with the income from their mmo online Black Desert, but if we did, and we put a value to black desert of 700m, still you arrive at the same price. The development of Crimson Desert took 133m, but half of that may be demmed as costs to develop the engine. Still all I use in the examples are quite conservative numbers. I think they have "Taiwan like economics" on video games, and the new engine is refreshing for the industry. Some may speculate they will likely be adquired, because this kind of independent AAA studios are few and the engine can provide a lot synergies to big players. Right now I am playing a little with the next earnings release, but this is speculation, if not I will be just following at this price.

I guess your bet was right, but in sizing, on my own experience as someone that likes big concentration, i will be relunctant to go above 3-5% on a single operation business (unless a short term catalyst is there, which can 2x my allocation limit), or 33% on a more diversified business. Also in shorting I hold the opinion that loses are unlimited, so it always carries a big risk. Other than that you should be proud to come back, and I think that kind of mistakes are easy to solve. With all that, with you invested this way, visiting the site, the probabilities where so low that statistically it was smart. But it happened. It's good for us to learn this stories. Thanks for sharing and welcome. Makes me remember what happened to Monish Pabrai, and I guess from that experience comes my limits

How is your Lqda position being held? Since I saw in your other post you are exposed through LEAPS, don't you want to replicate the same strategy in the fund?. l'm also not sure how to hold it. I see that most people here don't hold it straight.

@Mephistopheles Sorry may I ask you which calls are you buying? May 15th? Or longer duration. Thanks. I may try first time and sorry if it's a stupid question.

At some point i'm not proud of saying this for it's simplicity, but I bought more MTY group, making it a 40% position. Even without the buyout they will report a good quarter. And happy to hold at this price. Other arbitrages I have are Cpac (12%) and Lqda (6%).

Trying to liquidate his position. Maybe has a list of investment forums...

Just the normal strategy on the region is to try to block the waterways to get power. Israel is the only one commited to protect the waterways. Without them the world is in jeopardy. There is too many people on the world, we cannot survive without Israel. The morals can be discussed, but usually the side that supports Iran or Palestine forget all the history of their side. Last time I checked Israel has blocked like >20k missiles coming from Iran's proxies. That would be a genocide if not for Israel's defences. This people support a genocide just because they were weak to not be able to make their intentions come through. The US has to step before it is too late. China should also step, Europe, Africa, all the world needs Israel. Only Russia, who arguably rigs all this dictatorships benefits. All this goverments are no better than gangs, their people don't have any vote or political power, they are assets in their criminal balance sheet. And each one that dies is more and more money for this rats, a number that they can show around to get more funding and victimise to get support and politcal strenght. Well documented that they provoque and build their military infrastructure to maximize their civilian loses, they get their paycheck for killing their own people.

Back to Verisk

50% Fairfax 30% Mty group (founder wanting to sell due to retirement, may happen soon) 10% Exor After that I get diversifed positions on fairfax india, cvrx, pearl abyss, markel, BLDR, crocs, and some other smaller positions. I have 15% on margin, if MTY group is sold I will move more on the diversified portfolio. Having fairfax doing half of the work helps me to not make that many mistakes, I can focus on my best ideas and optimal sizing. If not my brain will fry and will default to bad moves.

There is a view that the war is being succesfull for what it lasted, and everyone is being impatient. But the official narrative is that this 2 weeks will be decisive. Is the time limit of the war marked by israel's defense systems? Or the gulf states security? If it was not then it would be an easy win. But as it is, then looks like taco may happen.

PVH is buying like crazy and the balance sheet doesn't look that bad. Just no growth, but owners earning yield about 13%. I mean for an small Peter Lynch position, as I don't have any insight. One insider bought at this price, which gives more confidence.

I see Israel-Iran conflict as a Russia- US conflict. Russia would love to block the maritimal trade and get Asia and Europe as their market. If Iran gets Nukes they can block maritimal trade. But in this game China is with the US, they also are heavily dependant on maritimal trade. And the next to nothing Chinese support proves all this theory.

I think instead of investment returns you can put insurrance float growth of arguably 10b per year on the equation. That way you get 40b earnings operational and then add the investment portfolio and cash at whatever discount you like. So in my case I will like to take the first 40b earnings operational at 15x, 600b. Then add the investment portfolio at 200b, to get a nice discount for coca cola and different other businesses that I would not necesarilly like to hold. Then the cash at face value, since we are in a high shiller ratio time, and then you get the IV.. But instead you get the cash at a 30% discount, so it's a solid hold at this prices. It's an s&p500 hedged againts shiller ratio fluctuation and with shareholder friendly phillosofy.

Yeah this weekend I looked at it and realized how complicated it is. Maybe a pass unless there is more insiders buying at this level. In that case diging deeper may be more rewarding. The insiders may be wromg about the credit risk, now that the fear it's mainstream we will see if they keep going.

China's risk is going to go down, if they efectively take control of Teheran, China loses it's trade route. No more Taiwan, nothing. Maybe not enough, but so far looks much promising than predicted

Honestly i'm outsorcing my brain to this guys, after seing promising numbers and how they buy. I'm taking it as a qualitative indication to support the above numbers. I will dig more, but leave it as a 3% bet alongside them.

F&g annuaties, 30% bellow what insiders paid, 0.70 price to book value, growing assets under management nicely, growing book value. Fidelity even took some shares at $33. Eps around 3-4 and it's sitting at $23.6, 52 weeks low is $22.43. 5 years low 15$, but with a lower p/book ratio (2022 equity: 2.4b, vs todays equity 4b). A series of companies with insiders buying and at reasonable prices, I add 0.5% on each: Pools corp, UNH, WKL