moatrep

This death is caused directly by a rethoric of acusing your debaters or politicals opponents of nazis, facist, etc. This rethoric will be legal until it is not. I mean you cannot go like that in Russia or China. Only in the free world you can go like that. And newspaper and corporations with cash flow push this rethoroc without facing consecuenses. You start to fine this behaviour and it will be reduced to a healthy level. Once you fine the corporations, newspapers, media, universities, you will come to a healthy level, but until them this will only scalate more and more. The left lacks the christian values as a back bone, the values that shape the society that we live in. Kirk was a good agent of the right, you will have right wing agents in the nihilistic spectrum, that will be the fascist that somewhat you will be justified to go against. Here it would be the opposite. Leftist are getting more radicalize because of nihilism, conservatives somewhat turn into religion when they go deeper, and that works against radicalization. Talking as a group, of course. Religion shaped america, the world war 2 that shaped the world was also a struggle of religions. But somehow the intellectuals rationalized everything and now the United States is ship that is loosing it's direction. Freedom is in danger more than ever.

Greggs and Wyse. Greggs is an easy value investor buy at this price, wyse I use and may buy anytime (not following the 20 PE embargo that I impose on me. Add croxcs that get the best quality to the wider audience in a new market that they created, with them being the king of the hill with their brand. About Greggs they provide the "english breakfast" and lunch, ideal for people commuting and wanting something fast and hot. They achieve that with small shops with short tenant agreements that they can swich around easily if sales are not good. That way they can achieve maximum density and provide a quick snack and staple for the most amount of people in Britain. Basically if at rush hour there is a file you just have to look for the next greggs two street ahead, so the customer is not lost and remains loyal. All stores are easy to run, just reheating the product that comes from the factory (most stores are run directly by Greggs). Their snack is synonymous of british cuisine like fish and chips, the greegs sausagge roll. They also have plenty of unique options in pasticery, similar to dunking donuts. The average coffè shop doesn't stand a chance against this bussiness model, only a few can survive doing fresh products, but competing in price is out of the cards. Not like for example subway that wanted to compete in fresh food and it is getting in trouble against the smaller and fresher owner run restaurants. Wyse is a visa card that helps travellers exchange currency easily, has a balance sheet that I would say is simillar to Interactive brokers and similar economics. In my experience they treath the customer better than Revolut and are much better focus in their core mission, although revolut is much bigger they maintain the same currency convertion rates. From a customer stand point is good to travel with two cards for safety reasons, I use wyse and revolut together in my case.

Big position in greggs and crocs, and small positons in swbi, paypal, rio tinto and constellation brands. Fairfax and elf.to still most of the portfolio.

I think the ADRs trade in the OTC, GGGSF. But I went with the pound one.

A shitload on Greggs

It is soon but this over reaction by a big country like India is quite a new development.. more so with his 20 percent muslim population. It's the continuation of the conflict but the casus beli was stated as this small terror attack.. Internationally speaking brics and the US have to meditate how much they can trust in India

I mean two dozen civillians it's peanuts nowdays. In gaza was 2.000 and the university students still defend them... probably a little too much scalation. Not clear if is just a civilian terror organization, 2 dozen civilians is what a kid can manage to do.

If you see the income statement Oxy sales and general expenses are only 5 % of assets, chevron spends 15% and exxon 10%. Most oil companies spend around what the two oil gigants spend. Later if you grab the oil production of each company and compare by the book asset value they roughly go in line, so it is a fair comparison. Oxy full play in the permian is arguably more atractive in this macro. Oil reserves for oxy are around 10 years, chevron oil reserves are lower, around 5 years if I remeber properly. On this exxon is similar to Oxy though. At the end the enterprise value of oxy is around 80% of assets and the two oil giganst around 120%, so you have an arguably better play 30 % less. This numbers were from last month, now the ev has gone down

Not much, but I think it operates more like an index, and the insurance float and discount to book value gives you some margin of safety. Fairfax is more the ability of Prem across the operating businesses, underwriting and oportunistic investing. This one is just an average investment fund with a well behaved insurance operation. This is more like looking grass grow. But even I may put more in fairfax and should be alright

Elf.to, I meant, sorry. Empire life financial. It is a solid life insurance company with a small business of asset management. They grow equity slowly but steady, and it's 60% book value now. They are buying back shares and paying good dividends and special dividends. They started this some years ago, looks like they want to narrow the value gap. But anyways i think you can expect 7% return and at some point sell with a good profit near book value. They also may sell subs and narrow the gap. Cash flow average 400m, income I think same, 16b float. 9b in the asset management business. Last 4 years they gave back 500m per year to the shareholders. Mkap is at 4.5b. Equity around 8b

Eft.to. 40% Fairfax. 30% Oxy. 7% Bank of utica. 3% Farmers & merchants bank 3% PBF energy 3% Gravity co 1% Smith and wesson 1% Cash

Ok yeah looks like it's not that smart, more factors than I was weighting. I will stick to good oil companies and see how it goes. Those should win in any case. Though the market is not weighting that this may be a possibility in my opinion. But playing with this is not that effort efective.

That is another good suggestion, making calls in my long position in a period like that. Also the call on oxy may be cheaper and have the buffet buying floor. I will consider both. Cheers

Ok thanks that makes sense. I will stick to this for the moment. Cheers

Sorry I'm quite iliterate in that aspect. Maybe I should go for that, although some levered oil company like oxy in the pandemic will be my ideal. I will search in the energy section, but yeah most likely I will buy some futures. How will you size a bet like this as an example?

Well china and europe need global maritimal trade more than they hate the US. To me the only people that wants a disruption is Rusia. The endgame will be to block the suez canal and have two cheap markets were they can issue petro dolars. I think Trump and Putin may negotiate a deal like the cuban missile crisis. Ucraine for Iran. Let's say that a big incursion or bombing in Iran can be spected in the next 2 months, at least 20 percent of the times. I am in a tax free account so I can move some assets until the ultimatum finishes.

Yeah i guess " big" is up to 30 percent in long and strong positions like oxy. And i think holding the two first years of Trump can be a good trade. That is all, the rest of my portfolio will be long things, even oxy as a 10 percent I will be long. But I think if an invation is not now it will never be again (all on a tax free account)

I am in oXy but I want to bet huge in oil, not sure which leverage options. My bet it's that an attack on Iran is imminent. It is an existential threath for almost all players in the world exept Rusia. You don't want a north korea near the suez canal. The other thing is the psycology of Donald Trump, looking for a quick gain. As for Israel, that will be the more affected, is also supporting it. The risk is that Iran already has something and there will not be an attack. Not sure who is bluffing here. But Iran has an ultimatum of 2 months so I think at least holding some good companies like oxy or others should be a good speculation. Other levered name that I have is pbf energy, that carlos slim is buying.

Alphabet, Nvr, Smith and wesson. Pbf energy as an asset play. Small positions in Valero and croxs.