Luca

Ukraine ‘will lose the war’ if US fails to approve aid, says Zelensky https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/08/europe/ukraine-lose-war-us-congress-zelensky-intl/index.html Republicans blocking the funding...

Thank you for the kind words John and all the best to you!

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Point taken. Russia is a good ally to China and basically fully dependent on them now, which is good for China and Chinese investments. More natural resources for cheap and independent from the west.

Will be very interesting what will happen with trump as a president, probably more real talk and not as much double language as now. Id also guess that the US withdraws some of its arms globally which is a net positive. Thats also why trump is hated by the establishment.

Putin regularly pushes that they want to open communications for settlements, China also open to be a mediator but the west and Zelensky is not willing to negotiate anything, not even exclusion of nato membership which is probably key for russia. So ukraine has to sacrifice all of its men/ and now also women, until no one is left, Ukraine totally capitulates and russia is quite weakened and pushed into chinas sphere of influence.

HAHAHA, him now using these memes even to make a case, is incredible.

Would be an interesting question for the annual meeting, considering the huge valuation discrepancy if they see any value in China and/or are willing to allocate some cash there the coming years or if India/West still has enough ideas for them to invest 10b.

High returns on invested capital and easy allocation of larger chunks of cash. I think the investment team certainly has some Asia expertise and these companies have very high earnings yields and IMO a lot more upside than downside. I'd prefer them buying chinese technology stocks than cheap mining stocks right now but that's me. I also don't think you need particular geographic expertise with the well-known large caps.

"This strategy required European trade sanctions against Russia, and similar moves to block trade with China in order to prevent Europe from being swept into the emerging China-centered mutual prosperity sphere. To prepare for its U.S.-China war, U.S. strategists sought to block China’s ability to receive Russian military support. The plan was to drain Russia’s military power by arming Ukraine to draw Russia into a bloody fight that might bring about a regime change. The unrealistic hope was that voters would resent war, just as they had resented the war in Afghanistan that had helped end the Soviet Union. In this case they might replace Putin with oligarchic leaders willing to pursue neoliberal pro-U.S. policies akin to those of the Yeltsin regime. The effect has been just the opposite. Russian voters have done what any population under attack would do: They have rallied around Putin. And the Western sanctions have obliged Russia and China to become more self-sufficient. This U.S. plan for an extended global New Cold War had a problem. The German economy was enjoying prosperity by exporting industrial products to Russia and investing in post-Soviet markets, while importing Russian gas and other raw materials at relatively low international prices. It is axiomatic that under normal conditions international diplomacy follows national self-interest. The problem for U.S. Cold Warriors was how to persuade Germany’s leaders to make an uneconomic choice to abandon its profitable commerce with Russia. The solution was to foment the war with Russia in Ukraine and Russia and incite Russophobia to justify imposing a vast array of sanctions blocking European commerce with Russia."

Russia has to be a gas station for the West with weak subservient leadership, China has to provide the exploited labor pool but can not develop beyond that because they will then take away market share and profits from US firms, leadership ideally also weak and subservient. Europe is already deindustrializing and lost Russia, great. The best world is a world, where 90% of global profits are funneled to US shareholders, and the SP 500 is the only remaining stock market index with a few mega caps and trillionaires that completely own Congress and the government.

Interesting comments by Hayden Capital:

This picture pretty well describes the industrial stagnation/deindustrialization within the US. How will the US be ever able to compete in manufacturing again with their degree of financialization? Considering also that so much of the infrastructure is privatized, concentrated, and inefficient. Rents too high for labor having low wages, to compete internationally, infrastructure investment for industry is not existent, energy transition depends on foreign supply chains of the Chinese enemy. It will turn out to be the biggest mistake, short term profit thinking, outsourcing labor to asia to save money and now the industry is gone, asia can produce themselves and the US with very concentrated wealth but little fundamentals left.

Id love them to allocate 1-2b into China large caps but I am aware that I am in a minority position with that

@Viking, what are your thoughts on those private investments into ShawKwei, Grivalia and BDT and what do they say about Fairfax as a capital allocator?

Last 10 year sales growth of the SP 500 was around 4% if i remember correctly, at stable margins and stable earnings multiple and sharecount flat, you will make 4%+the dividend yield. So yes, 5-6% is a realistic scenario.

Where does it say facts? Please provide a quote. What? I have made a point regarding the US interfering with the Chinese political situation by slandering an important infrastructure project. What have I ignored here?

Why is the US so desperate that they use CIA to create fake social media accounts that try to prevent belt and road projects? Doesn't that clearly show it is very smart to continue to do that if the US is willing to go that far?

"Promoted allegations" under secret identities with fake chinese social media accounts. That tells you all you need to know.

The CIA team promoted allegations that members of the ruling Communist Party were hiding ill-gotten money overseas and slammed as corrupt and wasteful China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which provides financing for infrastructure projects in the developing world The efforts within China were intended to foment paranoia among top leaders there, forcing its government to expend resources chasing intrusions into Beijing’s tightly controlled internet, two former officials said. “We wanted them chasing ghosts,”

The secret service of the US actively tries to block chinas interest by having misinformation campaigns against them. Its not ONLY China that is the bad guy here. That was the point. They are not publishing that there ARE corrupt officials but they spread misinformation and sow distrust within the chinese community.

Ahhhhhhhh....FOMO.