Luca

Its an economy with industrial decline that can not compete in manufacturing globally due to an insane amount of financialization. The privatization boosted rents so high, health insurance costs, energy etc...the US still does design but manufacturing is not coming except with strong subsidies (TSMC). The US doesn't even have the labor pool necessary to produce what is designed by few. On the latest 60min show, Gina Raimondo said "we have the best chips in the world". Then lesley stahl said "taiwan has them". And Raimondo said "fair enough". LOL! If increasingly half of your GDP is business services, absurd health insurance money collectors and rich banks and landlords, how does the real economy look like? Designed in California, made in China. Now when China designs in China and makes in China, the product is more competitive than what the US has and it is game over. Thats why you have the tariff discussion and other moves to slow china down from the declining economic reality in the US. So the US got into a position by killing, stealing, and committing genocide. Now that they have one of the largest controls in the world, nobody is allowed to do anything remotely similar because that would be...bad. Right... Which creates the opportunity today doesn't it? That capital went into US markets and left China with the pathetic valuation it has now

The EU also faces severe internal problems because of our economy's contradictions, too few job opportunities, and little to no wage growth for a large percentile that is radicalizing now and changed their voting behavior towards more radical politicians with increasingly violent language...

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If you are not here to discuss arguments, please refrain from posting simple one-liner comments that reduce complex political and economic realities to buzzwords. It adds nothing to the conversation and topic. Thank you.

I think economies that are in denial about the negatives of late-stage capitalism and refuse to regulate against it will not survive the next 50-100 years and will collapse under internal stressors.

Did we read the same text? He is talking about a mixed public and private economy, that's pretty much the case already in China and also in the European social market economies like Germany, Sweden, Finland, etc. There is no state planning for production but state planning around production so it becomes more efficient and effective. If you understand mixed economies as socialism then yes, I am a socialist. But I am this because it is a system that works better over the longterm, achieves higher prosperity for society, and even higher investment returns over time.

Pretty good summary of the geopolitical situation in 2024

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Yeye, i like the setup here, didnt play around with this kind of product before and will gain some experience...no investment advice

Starter in 3x KWEB ISIN:XS2399370043

It is, look at Trump and what his impact was on German discussion around NATO and our military. Right after he said "Russia can just go, we won't defend Europe because they didn't pay 2%" we had a public debate about how reliable the US as an ally is. Shared values with current leadership...we had 16 years of Angela Merkel and relative stability, but now things look a lot more unstable because leadership changes, and with that the countries set up. Well, I think that every country has a common belief that "development together" and "peace" are good values. China says that, we say that...but then it comes down to interest again...territory...economic advantages...better jobs...having manufacturing...having patents and the right on specific technology... The fundamental human and political world is driven by interest and not by some "alliance". With that mindset you lose sight on what really matters--> Your own interest and that of your country. I don't think they have a common enemy as their only shared interest but its of course one point. They both take care of their interests, which align today but could misalign tomorrow. Always have the option to leave and change partners because nothing is forever and it's better that way. Well, those cultures grew up separate for a long time. Because US citizens and Canadians literally came from Europe, that doesn't mean our economic interests align necessarily, especially with changing leadership.

Yes, the terrible energy policy from Germany is a major driver and Russia cut off was extra dry firewood on top I agree.

What values do we exactly share with the senile man Biden and Trump and this government? How can the US call itself a democracy when the same two candidates come up AGAIN after how ridiculous their presidency was and the election process? I mean, it's a South Park episode and I am highly skeptical of the state of leadership in the US. It's a very very limited democracy with the same two parties again and again and the same few client oligarch possible presidents up for choice that come from the same backgrounds, Ivy League, close contact to corporate America, running the same political line again, and again, funded by the same elite...this is what China sees, what Russia sees, what Iran sees but what can not be said publicly or you are a conspiracy theorist, Chinese spy or whatever. Then you have a media sector that receives funding by the same clientele that sponsors the presidents and parties, very strict ideological line that you are not allowed to cross or you will receive a public shitstorm by some randoms...Musk says it regularly but then he will get cut from advertising and blocked...alliances are based on mutual interests and I see a lot of differences in interest.

I wouldnt be so sure about that: There is a lot of industry that thrived on cheap russian NG, the impact on GDP is not huge (10%+) but significant enough for our economy to stall. Chemical industry is 10%+ of GDP. Individual households had to pay huge sums to US and other NG producers pushing down domestic demand. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/14/germany-economy-recession-energy-exports/

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-10-10/how-much-aid-does-the-u-s-give-to-israel The United States has given Israel more aid than any other nation since World War II, granting it more than $260 billion.

Yeah I mean that's nothing really, Israel received 250b since its founding? But also, yes, they can not be made partners or stabilized. Not worth spending money on, especially with radical Islam, etc.

I specifically wrote "little" and those companies do not have "little innovation". Agree to disagree. The eurasian axis is a threat to the US which is why it has to be stopped and why Northstream was bombed by the US. Europe will be drawn into the war between US and China too and its not in our interest. Europes economy compared to the US is not fair, we have very weak countries here...greece was weak, east was and is weak. I agree that there is too much regulation, Europe can be a powerhouse. Especially with russian resources and open Chinese markets. Still, we don't have "little innovation". Most of these tech companies in the US quite literally literally depend on European engineering and innovation.

Doesn't make sense to support the religiously and culturally completely different poor peasants in Gaza that have pretty much nothing to offer to western countries. Its understandable that many then come to the conclusion that gaza lives don't matter and that there is some sort of bias happening.

I mean, it has significant foreign reserves, has a reasonable economy, is Western orientated... A lot of things to like for us so it makes sense to support them. There are African regions where millions day and nobody gives a shit, nobody sends them money and they just die and starve alone in the woods sooo...our support is selective.

Russian trade was perfectly fine with a nato 8 years before the special operation You said there is little innovation. 1. ASML 2. Novo Nordisk 3. SAP 4. SIEMENS 5. AIRBUS (quite better than Boeing now...;-)) 6. Lots of medical companies that are very innovative...merck etc 7. Atlas Copco 8. Very high quality automobile producers. 9. NXP semis 10. BASF 11. Infineon I don't think that's an accurate statement and its also not relevant to the discussion honestly.

I have made my position on China already very clear so no point in talking about that again. What does Israel/Iran mean for the broader geopolitical development? IMO the actions by the west are mostly symbolic, besides that Israel can be and was used a a small island of western interest compared to the surrounding countries that start to look close to china and russia. Makes sense again to me to support the heck out of that island for the west.

I have moved my answer to the russia thread since we are mainly talking about that now.

How kind of you, now your limited circle is a rule of thumb of whats legitimate or not? Yes, we shouldn't have no military and be vulnerable. But that also doesn't mean that russia is interested in attacking any nato territory or going into Germany. Its a complete and absolute false interpretation of the situation and of the Russian government. Shall they have the ukraine regions...lets give them that, then we can stop the war, ukraine promises to not enter nato and its highly likely that Putin will accept. It is, the whole eurasian axis is a threat to the US world order and they don't want that to happen. Our economic performance is now pathetic because we don't have solid fundamentals, even better for the US. Little innovation? I don't know on which planet you are living but we have a lot of top-notch companies. They are not our best friend but they are a solid partner for trade and especially their exchange of gas for our products and money which we really need. @Sweet

Look, every country out there is mostly doing whats in their own interest, the US is spying everywhere and listening to Angela Merkels phone, China is listening to bidens phone, the US is listening to Netanyahus phone etc...its nothing new and if you step out of your own countries position things get a lot more multipolar. All that matters is interest and we were a loser in this war and shouldn't have been. China cares about its own interests and the interests of its people, everybody throwing russia away? Sure, we will take the cheap energy no problem. They get a lot, we lose a lot. Thats life. The US doesn't care about germanys interest, or frances interest but about their own and that's totally okay. But I urge germanies and every other European government to consider the implications of the Russian cut off and the rising tensions that the US tries to push us in with china...we wont be winners but the US will be. The war in Israel is mostly meaningless but its again a show for the US and the west to demonstrate their power and their peaceful democracies