sculpin

Been buying B's & D's and more common in low $1.60's. Might visit Parq in next week to see how it is doing at height of tourist/holiday season.

Blue Goose and its subsidiaries have entered into several borrowing arrangements, pursuant to which Blue Goose had borrowed an aggregate of $60,015,000 at December 31, 2017 (2016 – $55,130,000).

Casino-Backed Startup Eyes Alzheimer's Cure Worth $2.5 Billion By Joyce Koh and Livia Yap March 1, 2018 at 8:24:41 PM EST TauRx will look at options including IPO if trial successful Big pharmaceutical companies have exited or failed in field It hasn’t found a cure for Alzheimer’s disease and doesn’t have any drugs on the market. Yet, TauRx Pharmaceuticals Ltd. says the company’s worth about $2.5 billion as it embarks on its latest trial funded by shareholders including casino operator Genting Bhd. If the trial proves successful, the Singapore-based company plans to apply to European and U.S. regulators for conditional or accelerated approval of its drug, TauRx Deputy Chairman Tay Siew Choon said in an interview in the city-state last month. It will also need to raise about $150 million to conduct a more comprehensive phase III trial, though at that point, it would evaluate options including an initial public offering or sale. TauRx is pressing ahead in a field that has seen many of the largest pharmaceutical players from Pfizer Inc. to Axovant Sciences Ltd. exit or fail. Just last month, Merck & Co. said it will end a trial of its most advanced Alzheimer’s drug while Biogen Inc.’s shares tumbled after saying it was making changes to its trial. TauRx disappointed investors in 2016 when it said its LMTX drug failed to meet a primary goal of slowing the rate of disease progression when taken in combination with other Alzheimer’s drugs. “We have consistently seen that our theory works, and there’s no reason to give it up,” said Tay. “Shareholders’ support and faith in us has not weakened.” On top of a $71 million rights issue in October to fund the current trial, TauRx had already raised more than $500 million since 2002, according to Tay. The last financing round in 2016 valued the company at about $2.5 billion, he said. Billionaire Lim Kok Thay’s Genting invested $112 million in TauRx in 2012, becoming its biggest shareholder with about a 20 percent stake. TauRx has been recruiting patients since November for the current trial, where it plans to test its drug on 200 patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease who aren’t taking any other medication. The results are expected in early 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/casino-backed-startup-eyeing-alzheimer-s-cure-worth-2-5-billion

Or buying the common at like 25% of NAV is as well. Anyone know when Delonex begins to drill in Chad? Brent price back over $77 again - will be a very nice royalty at these prices.... Delonex paid US$35 million on the closing of the Transaction (subject to applicable escrow and holdback requirements), and will pay an additional US$50 million if first oil is achieved, including US$20 million for first oil at Doba and US$30 million for first oil at Block H. United will retain a royalty of 10 percent on Doba production and a 5 per cent royalty on Block H production, payable unless the average price of Brent Crude oil is less than US$45 for a quarter.

Bri-Chem annual meeting in June as per below. Dissatisfied shareholders could withhold voting for directors which would send a strong message of discontent with the status quo. There is likely a very large % of shareholders who would support a sale of this business at a price closer to tangible book compared to where it trades currently. Subject: BRI-CHEM CORP Dear Sir/Madam: We advise of the following with respect to the upcoming Meeting of Security Holders for the subject Issuer: Meeting Type : Annual General Meeting Record Date for Notice of Meeting : May 10, 2018 Record Date for Voting (if applicable) : May 10, 2018 Beneficial Ownership Determination Date : May 10, 2018 Meeting Date : June 14, 2018

Recent review of the Marriott at Parq including many photos.... https://pointswise.ca/jw-marriott-parq-hotel-review-water-view-guest-room-vancouver-bc/

GMP commentary.... Dundee Corporation BUY DC.A-TSX Last: C$1.89 May 14, 2018 ▼ Target: C$5.90 Q1/18 – Streamlining continues Undiscounted NAV $7.37 Dundee Corp. (DC.A-TSX) reported its Q1/18 results on May 14, 2018. Our NAV of $7.37 versus $8.00 previously was lower q/q largely due to losses recognized in its equity accounted investments and the continued underperformance of some of its investments. The discount to NAV is consistent at ~74%, largely unchanged q/q. Notable events Proceeds of $43.0 million was recognized from the sale of a basket of securities (Osisko Mining Inc. being one) – non-core to the business. A portion of the proceeds were invested in Parq Vancouver ($17.4 million). GCIC reported AUM of $210.8 million, an increase of $16.7 million, y/y. GCIC has indicated that during Q2/18, it will complete a streamlining of its private client line of business, following which ~$130 million in AUM will be transferred to other platforms. Relief efforts through government compensation has been sought with responses expected in Q2/18, for a wildfire that resulted in higher feed costs for Blue Goose. Parq guidance Parq Vancouver became fully operational in Jan/18. The initial ramp up of operations were slower than expected due to regulations and higher costs. However, Parq Vancouver is forecasting improved results in Q2/Q3 – in line with an improved outlook on the overall tourism industry in B.C. Funding of $33.4 million by two partners were invested into the project in order to meet certain obligations. Maintain BUY – Strategic review In our view, management has made some progress towards meeting key objectives. Management has created an industry-focused capital markets group with the hire of four seasoned professionals; subsidiaries will proceed with their streamlining activities to reduce annual corporate cash needs. Net cash at the corporate level was ~$37.2 million exiting the quarter. Our NAV is now $7.37 (previously $8.00). The discount to NAV remain largely consistent at ~74%. We apply a 20% discount to yield our target of $5.90 (previously $6.40). We maintain our BUY rating. See Figure 1 for our NAV sensitivity analysis.

Jim Roumell talks about Marty in his latest letter... http://www.roumellasset.com/pdf/update_1Q2018.pdf

Well their position in Dundee precious metals is publicly traded and currently worth $118 million - this could be sold easily over the next year to raise money to redeem those preferreds. Here is more on Dundee PM which is worth about $2 per DC.A share at the current price and about $3.25 per Dundee share at Paradigm's $5 target price.... In Summary.... Dundee Precious Metals: Hosted a lunch with DPM senior mgmt recently… in sum, it’s a cheap name that has deep value and a lot of growth within the next 12-18 months. • The Tsumeb smelter is operating efficiently – generated FCF for the first time of $7m in 2017 and CEO Rick Howes tells us we can expect $12-15m FCF going forward at Tsumeb • With both mines operational in 2019… AuEq >350koz @ $600oz AISC for the next 3 years…. • We expect DPM to generate $120m in FCF each year between 2019-2021 • Cheapest of the junior producers: o 0.49x p/nav, vs junior producer avg. of 0.91x. o 5.2x p/cf, vs junior producer avg. of 7.1x. Dundee Precious Metals Inc. RESEARCH NOTE | May 1, 2018 Don MacLean, Sr. Analyst | 416. 360.3459 |dmaclean@paradigmcap.com Don Blyth, Analyst| 416.360.3461| dblyth@paradigmcap.com Lauren McConnell, Analyst | 416.366.7776 | lmcconnell@paradigmcap.com Open Path to Revaluation Investment Thesis. DPM has the potential to achieve a substantial rerating, based on strong growth over the next 1–2 years, but first it must prove it can operate its Tsumeb smelter profitably and secondly DPM, now with permitting and financing complete, it must build the Krumovgrad mine. We believe it can. Event We hosted a client lunch on April 24 with members of DPM’s senior management team (CEO, CFO, SVP Corporate Development and Investor Relations). While DPM has already experienced strong outperformance, up 19% in the last year, we believe a further 30–50% rerating is setting up to occur in 2018 as the Tsumeb Smelter continues to perform and remains cash flow positive, Chelopech remains a steady core performer and Krumovgrad moves toward first concentrate in late 2018, positioning DPM for a >100% increase in cash flow. Highlights  Smelter Transitioning to Free Cash Flow | Five years of construction finally wound down in 2017 with an essentially new plant. Smelters require continuous operation and the on-and-off nature of tying in rebuilt parts of the project precluded this. The only continuous aspect was that the operating team constantly had to learn new features about the processes. Since Q1/17, Tsumeb has essentially been able to operate continuously, save the annual refractory relining (now every 14–15 months), showing that it is able to break even or better. Nameplate capacity is 240KTpa. It produced 220Kt in 2017 and is guided to 220–250KTpa in 2018, with upside to 265KTpa without further construction capital. Our C$7.27/sh NAV for DPM attaches zero value to the smelter (Figure 1), which we suspect other analysts do as well. Indeed, the market might assign a negative intrinsic value via a risk discount, given the long history of capital consumption ($50M acquisition plus $365M construction, plus sustaining capex). Our luncheon discussion confirmed that there are no longer obstacles to prevent Tsumeb from operating continuously, or extra capital items required that will prevent it from generating net free cash flow. If it can do so in 2018, together with the three-quarter stretch in 2017, we would expect the market to gradually lower its smelter risk discount.  Construction of Krumovgrad on Time and Below Budget I As of March 31, Krumovgrad’s construction was 59% complete with $96.3M having been spent and a further $66–$72M to be spent over the next two quarters (total $162–$168M, budget $178M). Commissioning and start-up are expected in Q3/18 with first concentrate production in Q4/18 (targeted for November). Krumovgrad’s production is expected to average 103Koz/year for the first five years, increasing DPM’s gold production by an average of 60% and boosting our estimated cash flow by an average of 75% during that timeframe. Chelopech Continuing to Deliver I Chelopech has been DPM’s cash flow engine, and while grades have been declining to align with reserve grade, this has been offset by productivity improvements. The mine, now one of the most modern in the world, is positioned to deliver relatively steady grades and hence cash flow going forward. Until 2016, exploration at Chelopech had focused in-mine. DPM now has several targets that it is testing outside of the current mine area, but still very close to existing infrastructure. It has planned 15,000m this year, comprising 10,000m infilling existing holes at the Southeast Breccia Pipe Zone (SEBPZ) and 5,000m at the Krasta target (Figure 2). Underground drilling at SEBPZ in 2017 confirmed the potential for economically significant high-sulphidation style copper-gold mineralization over the 1,500m strike length. This year the focus will be to conduct systematic underground drilling to test the large areas between previous drilling. At the Krasta target, drilling only began in late 2017 with two surface diamond drill holes showing encouraging results with alternation and copper-gold mineralization similar to the Chelopech high-sulphidation style ore bodies.  What’s Next for DPM? I A substantial valuation multiple lift (about one-third) typically comes with growing a company from a Junior to an Intermediate producer. For us, the threshold is +250–300Koz/year. We estimate that DPM will produce gold in concentrate of 263Koz and 305Koz in 2019 and 2020, respectively, and will generate net free cash flow of $75M and $150M. Once Krumovgrad is up and running in Q4/18, will it deploy this cash and, if so, how? Management feels that it should be deployed. An operating project would be ideal, otherwise a development/advanced exploration-stage project would make sense, particularly in Eastern Europe, where it has a solid track record and understanding. In our April 9 Gold Sector research note, we suggested that DPM and Nevsun Resources (NSU-T, C$5.20 TP, Buy) would be a good fit as Nevsun proceeds with its Timok project in Serbia, where DPM also has exploration/development projects (Lenovac, Timok and Tulare projects). Another possibility could be Sabina (SBB-T, C$3.25 TP, Speculative Buy), of which it currently holds ~10% of the shares outstanding. DPM acknowledged that it has always liked the project and the upside potential that Back River has (see our April 18 research note), but had always viewed SBB as too big. That might change in 2018–2019. Sabina’s market cap is $333M and the preproduction capex is $426M (our estimate), whereas DPM’s market cap is $453M. It would be a large bite, but one that could be considerably more doable with DPM’s US$75– US$150M/year of net free cash flow and if a rerating of DPM occurs. Valuation & Conclusion We think that DPM is positioned for a rerating among the Junior Producers in 2018. It is now finally able to offer more predictable performance and free cash flow from its existing operations, the smelter in particular, followed by strong growth starting in late 2018 from the new Krumovgrad mine. If investors can gain confidence that the smelter will be at least self-funding and Krumovgrad starts up without the problems experienced by most new projects these days, we think DPM could see a 30– 50% rerating, possibly more. It stands to reason that it will take multiple quarters before investors stop looking for the elephant in the room, but the upside is considerable and we believe it is achievable. DPM is trading at 0.45x NAV@5%, assuming spot gold of $1,315/oz and zero value for the smelter. Our Junior and Intermediate averages are 0.91x and 0.81x, respectively. We mention both tiers because with 2019–2021 production of 263–305Koz/year, plus copper, DPM will be on the 250– 300Koz/year threshold of our Intermediate category. With base metal and gold multiples now very similar, we like DPM’s blend of copper and gold. The smelting element might keep its valuation multiple below its gold peer average, but we still we see potential for a further 30–50%+ relative outperformance over the next year. DPM remains a Top Pick with a Buy rating and C$5.00 target.

Well their position in Dundee precious metals is publicly traded and currently worth $118 million - this could be sold easily over the next year to raise money to redeem those preferreds.

Dundee: An Under The Radar Holding Company Trading At A Significant Discount To Conservative NAV https://seekingalpha.com/article/4167479-dundee-radar-holding-company-trading-significant-discount-conservative-nav Summary Trades at a significant discount to conservative NAV of $4.41 per share, compared to stated NAV of $10.36. Dundee has a variety of levers to pull to realize value for shareholders; it continues to de-risk the portfolio and is reducing costs at the corporate level. The Goodman family has significant financial and reputational skin in the game and has never sold a share. Liquidity concern re preferred notes due 2019 is unwarranted as it has the option to pay cash, issue common shares or a combination of the two.

Horizon Kinetics done selling??

Latest Cline update from Q4 MDA put out end March... Cline Mining Update Met coal prices have climbed back above $200/tonne, as shipping bottlenecks in Australia and mine closures in China have been supportive. Chinese factors look to remain positive over at least the next 2-3 quarters. The overall environment for Cline continued to gradually improve in 2017 and into 2018. Prices remain strong, the U.S. dollar has weakened somewhat, and at least two restructured coal companies have gone public. This indicates there is a renewed desire to provide capital to the industry. Cline continues to be engaged with multiple parties in exploring fresh capital and perhaps new ownership for Cline. The visions for Cline are extremely varied, as are these parties’ perception of value. These negotiations are complicated and have proven to be protracted in the past. Overall, the prospects for a liquidity event are improving, yet far from certain.

Learned quite a bit from Marty Whitman. I always eagerly awaited his quarterly letters at Third Avenue.

There is a reason I titled this thread "Dumbdee"...

GMP... Equity Research Dundee Corporation BUY DC.A-TSX Last: C$1.98 Target: C$6.40 Q4/17 – Eventful quarter, key progress made Undiscounted NAV $8.00 Dundee Corp. (DC.A-TSX) reported its Q4/17 results on March 28th, after the market closed. Our NAV was of $8.00 versus $9.19 previously, was lower q/q largely due to a write-down at Blue Goose and at Cambridge Medical Funding. The discount to NAV increased to ~75%, up from 67% q/q. Notable events A catastrophic fire at the facilities of Blue Goose Pure Foods Ltd. (“BGPF”), a subsidiary, rendered the facilities inoperative, catapulting BGPF into receivership as BGPF did not have any recourse. As a result, the net assets of BGPF were derecognized and an associated loss of $22.6 million was recognized. Cambridge has indicated it will no longer acquire any further medical receivables as a result of an investigation by Californian authorities into excessive and improper medical billings, effectively raising concerns on collectability. As a result, the investment in Cambridge was deemed fully impaired, resulting in a loss of $8.5 million. Parq guidance Management has given guidance for 2018 and expects to generate EBITDA of $50 to $75 million and in excess when operations are fully ramped up. As a result of expected increases in customer traffic and slot utilization rates, 50% to 60% of EBITDA is expected to be generated through casino operations while the remainder is from hotel operations and beverage services. To fund operations, we note, the casino requires a capital injection of $25 million between the ownership group. Maintain BUY – Strategic review In our view, management has made some progress towards meeting key objectives, which included streamlining their corporate cash needs. Annual corporate level cash needs (interest, dividends, op. expenses, capital) are now ~$59 million as management continues to streamline operations. Net cash at the corporate level was ~$40.5 million exiting the quarter. Our NAV is now $8.00 (previously $9.19). The discount to NAV increased to ~75%. We apply a 20% discount to yield our target of $6.40 (previously $8.00). We maintain our BUY rating. See Figure 1 for our NAV sensitivity analysis.

And.... "U.S. President Donald Trump may be helping to revive Canada’s dream of a liquefied natural gas export industry to supply growing markets in Asia." "The tariffs Trump formally ordered against $50 billion in Chinese goods threaten to raise construction costs for LNG projects in Texas and Louisiana and provide a leg up to rival projects on Canada’s Pacific shore. With a global gas glut tightening faster than expected, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and its partners in a proposed British Columbia complex are closing in on a final investment decision." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/canada-s-lng-export-dream-isn-t-dead-yet-thanks-to-trump ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// "U.S. LNG firms lament bad timing of steel tariffs and China trade spat" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-lng-tariffs/u-s-lng-firms-lament-bad-timing-of-steel-tariffs-and-china-trade-spat-idUSKBN1GY2QS

I'm sure I am about to get schooled but why are you certain? Probably should have said I'm making an educated guess. Reasons why.. Previous EWR position (Petromaroc) was fully sold, Trading in Diagnos showed substantial sale volume subsequently by the same broker at the same price level that handled the sale resulting in the EWR

They sold the remaining 13.2 million shares today for approx $800k (0.06 per share). As usual with Dundee, I'm curious what triggered the sale, and even more curious what triggered the investment in the first place. I'm certain Dumbee has sold most or all (18.5 million shares) of their position in Diagnos as well following the early warning report on the 8th of April. Good to see them disposing of the garbage spec share positions and realizing some cash. Cleaning up the holdco and reducing it down to a relatively easy to understand businesses should be good in the longer term for the share price vis a vis the NAV discount narrowing. Combined the aforementioned sale & the Diagnos one would have brought in about $2.5mm.

Good interview on how Canada is being increasingly disadvantaged... https://www.bnn.ca/video/gramatovich-b-c-and-alberta-s-trade-fight-is-just-insane~1333692

More bad news for the long term economy of the country.. http://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2018/2/7-reasons-why-canadas-proposed-overhaul-energy-project-reviews-bad-business-gmp-firstenergy/ In reality, it’s unlikely that any major project would proceed under the new rules, according to the research team with GMP FirstEnergy. “The proposed legislation appears to create significant new barriers to timely decision making and effectively prevent any major new project from reaching any form of positive recommendation, or to impose such a massive series of requirements under any such positive recommendation as to make the project untenable and cost uncompetitive,” researchers wrote in a research note issued last week.

Contrarian opportunity or further descent into socialist hell...aka Venezuela north?? 8 years of anti energy/pipeline Obama and now completely anti business ideological zealots at provincial & federal levels are increasingly destroying Canada. If Trudeau is reelected in 2019 stick a fork in Canada... Maclean's might have sugarcoated this a bit, but, unfortunately, the details seem correct, "If you were unlucky enough to buy into the stock market at the peak in 2008, just before the financial crisis hit full force, your gains (excluding dividends) wouldn't buy you much more than two loaves of price-fixed bread at Loblaws and a bag of President's Choice sour grapes … With that kind of dim performance, Canada's market is not only bad; it's the absolute worst performing market in the world." http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/canadas-stock-market-is-the-worst-in-the-world/ While we're at it, Bloomberg has more pessimistic news on the domestic market, "With pipeline, regulatory and political frustrations reaching new heights, the nation's energy stocks slumped to their lowest level in almost two years this month. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF, which tracks Canadian energy companies, has seen about $56 million in outflows this year versus $32 million in inflows for an ETF focused on U.S. stocks." "Investors Are Bailing on Landlocked Canadian Oil" – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-21/investors-bail-on-landlocked-canada-oil-as-pipeline-woes-deepen "I'm not crazy about Canada," Paul Tepsich, founder and portfolio manager at hedge fund High Rock Capital Management Inc. in Toronto, said by phone. "We've got taxes going up and regulations going up." "I'm inclined to believe that we don't see another oil-sands project built," Geof Marshall, the guardian of $40-billion of assets at CI Investments' Signature Global Asset Management in Toronto, said by phone. The majority of his energy holdings are concentrated in U.S. regions like the Permian Basin, where there's more capacity to move the commodity, he said. Rafi Tahmazian, who helps manage about $1-billion in energy investments at Canoe Financial in Calgary, said he began trimming holdings of Canadian energy equities after Justin Trudeau was elected in 2015. He started shifting further into the U.S. after Donald Trump became president and vowed to trim regulations and environmental protection. Canada needs to cut taxes and ensure pipelines and LNG terminals get built, Tahmazian said. "My job as an investor is to gauge and make investments based on my confidence in a leader of a company and a country, or a province or a state," he said. "And I have zero confidence there right now."

Hopefully this is a sign of continuing clean up of the mess that is the DC portfolio. Unfortunately being done at the 52 week low of ADK shares.... Dundee Corporation Sells Shares in Diagnos Inc. TORONTO, Feb. 08, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In accordance with regulatory requirements, Dundee Corporation (TSX:DC.A) announces that, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Dundee Resources Limited, it has sold 2,026,000 common shares (“Shares”) of Diagnos Inc. (the “Issuer”). Immediately prior to the disposition of securities described in this news release, Dundee owned 18,487,764 Shares representing an approximate 10.72% interest in the Issuer on an undiluted basis. Immediately following the transaction that triggered the requirement to file this news release, Dundee owns 16,461,764 Shares, representing an approximate 9.55% interest in the Issuer on an undiluted basis. Dundee acquired the Shares of the Issuer for investment purposes only. Dundee intends to review, on a continuous basis, various factors related to its investment, including (but not limited to) the price and availability of the securities of the Issuer, subsequent developments affecting the Issuer or its business, and the general market and economic conditions. Based upon these and other factors, Dundee may decide to purchase or sell securities of the Issuer.

Excerpt from the Intrepid Endurance fund latest quarterly letter. Might be a good idea to sell the 2 Parq hotels once they have some favourable financial & operating history. They agree on continued stupid decisions & poor capital allocation in the Blue Goose acquisition of Tender Choice... Dundee achieved two important milestones in the third quarter, including closing the sale of United Hydrocarbon (UHIC) to Delonex Energy and opening the Parq Vancouver casino and resort. The UHIC deal eliminates a $12 million annual cash drag to Dundee and offers the potential for a future royalty tied to Delonex’s Chadian oil production several years from now. Parq Vancouver is Dundee’s main opportunity for near-term cash flows, although this is dependent on refinancing the project’s prohibitively expensive construction debt. We believe Dundee should capitalize on the strong market for Vancouver hotel transactions and sell the two hotels attached to Parq Vancouver, with proceeds applied to reducing borrowings. Just when Dundee’s situation seemed to be incrementally brightening, the company reported in November that it suspended activities at Blue Goose’s Tender Choice chicken processing facility to address repairs required by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. Weeks later, the facility burned down. While destructive fires are unpredictable (usually, and hopefully in this case), Dundee’s original rationale for purchasing Tender Choice wasn’t strong. Management claimed Tender Choice would help Blue Goose expand its organic brand into conventional chicken, and they also suggested vertical integration synergies, but the main purpose was to acquire EBITDA to dilute losses at the Blue Goose subsidiary. This is another disappointing example of capital allocation by Dundee’s leadership. With that said, Dundee’s stock already reflects nothing favorable, as it’s trading at less than 25% of tangible book value. If management can begin extracting cash flow from Parq Vancouver in 2018, Dundee could partially stem its ongoing bleed in book value. Dundee is not a material position for the Fund. http://www.intrepidcapitalfunds.com/media/pdfs/fsb0.nschmidt.xf00.193745.endurance_fund_commentary.pdf

NAL.to is up 83% since this post. I wonder what's going on? Is a much more valuable company with $60+ oil.