alertmeipp

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1816280062&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo The puzzle is coming together.

Assuming other things being constant, a debt free FBK + lower wood chips + power generation should yield ~25-30m more Ebita.

Under present circumstances it generated 47 m in cash flow last year. As I mentioned above, the replacement value is much, much higher. They are spending up to 2 Billion on a similar operation in Tasmania. FBK has other non owned infrastructure already in place such as roads, shipping capability, customers, etc. Yes, you got the point; cash flow is the key. I am sure ppl won't invest 2 billions to get 60million ebita. Replacement value doesn't really matter if the assets don't generate attractive returns; if it does, all those IPPs are great buy now. I am not saying FBK is not cheap, it is. I am just saying we should focus on how much cash FBK can generate. This will be an interesting year.

damn.. up to 9.8 now... I sold good chunk of it going into earning. And decided to have full position in with FBK. :'( :'( :'(

forget about the replacement value... no one cares about it. It generated merely 12m Ebita last year.

production guidance up. cost down. cap ex up. Mississippi play up to 900k. still highly leveraged; but cheap.

i agree patience is needed and being tested. :'(

I think they are over-reacting. Can't blame them though. The management would have put a one line explanation on the cost jump and remain ppl about the coming cost saving. I can see them doing ~80million EBITA this year and be close to debt free by year end if they choose to. That's huge. 10m in interest saving compared to 2010. I understand the cycle will end, but this one may still have a while to go. Plus, it's cheap, it's not like it's pricing for 10x ebita.

Myth - I think one needs to look into what they have done even with all those "one time" thingsssss and what the company is selling for vs. what it is capable of produce. I can see this company improving going forward.

Anyone listened to the call? Q1 cost will actually be back down to Q3.... why ppl are selling is beyond me.

If they can somehow improve the RBK by doing M&A - I am all for it. They don't need to be debt free unless they go back to dividend mode.

RBK was like low single % EBITA, so it lowers FBK's overall margin.. FBK's NBSK side is pretty comparable.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=joe&mkttype=after wish I got those.

It's not RBK this time. It actually contributes to half of the EBITA this time. It's the cost - it jumped 10million while production falls. I think it's a one time thing.

Wow, the result looks crap at the first glance. Will need to know why the cost up so much - I think it's probably a one time thing (5 millions for the machine + 4 millions for regular capex on shut down) - need to check out the actual filing which isn't available yet. (Hope they not paying too much on the new website and email alerts.) :D Production was the low due to long shut down. Q1 production should be back up to 140-150m range. Positive - finally see the # on the power generation. 6m per year. Not too shabby for 20millions out of pocket expense. If we net out the receivable and inventories, they are on schedule to be debt free year end. EBITA of about ~70millions should easily translate to $3 share price. Why the cost up so much? They should be more explicit.

this will be a multi-decades process. middle east is probably the most complicated piece of land in the world. People there grow up in a very different environment than we do.

hey.. Prem predicts macro too. :-X

when the market corrects 20% and the media yells 1929.

No, I am not sure and I can see the market continue to go up - liquidity is a huge factor in the market and we can't under-estimate the money that is still on the side earning next to nothing. High interest bond and term deposit continue to roll off and one can't get much even with 3 year term deposit now. Main street sees the inflation and they know money in bank collecting 0.x% is losing values. Mutual fund is selling well, ppl are moving back in. When money goes in mutual fund, they need to allocate to something. And I won't even mention the middle-class theory in developing countries. So, the market can go up more from here. But u and I know - there is still right too much debt and QE was there to inject money to banking system for a reason... but with the low interest rate, some of those can get repaired. hummm....I know some of u are not macro focus, but I keep thinking what will the econ do without QE and stimulus.

guys, open a new thread to argue about pension and how the gov should be run. ;D The point is something has to be done. We real Change. Or if we print more money and thus, devalue it. the problem will just go away.

I will feel more comfortable if QE is off and economy can stand on its own. Then what will the employment # will be when gov cut spending. Compensation in gov. is just way too high. Christie - he will be good for US long term but it will be very painful short-term.

debt level going back up is interesting pt - when interest rate goes back up - people will allocate more income to pay interests which will slow down economy. The other side if we stuck with slow growth - big banks will be very profitable when spread (CD rate vs loan rate) widen. Bull market usually ends with a spike - did we see it yet? And with gov flooding the market with cash and cash earns nothing and devalue everyday - where can the money go? And soaring market does make ppl feel better and spend more.

I used to consider FFH as a cheap mutual run by the best manager in the world with free option on insurance business when the market returns. I think the CDS thing is once a life-time scenario - don't expect it to repeat. (i.e. the recent hedge is just hedge). Can't blame their hedge - they have rating agency to deal with.

I keep thinking with the recent 100% rise from bottom, we are due for a serious pullback. On the plus side, corp profit seems to be very positive and the demand from middle class in developing countries is a very positive force. However, inflation, high commodities and still fairly high unemployment, on-going QE, soaring gov debt in Fed and State level make me think something is going to burst. I am still fully invested. Hedged with SPY put, VIX future and long USD. I am selling out some and roll options into shares - obviously, with the market soaring, all those moves cost me money. Any thoughts to share?

disappointing result - hedge is a difficult thing - my hedge last year and this year cost me dearly. their core business still aren't great (read-bad) - without good investment gain; their result won't be good for a while.