alertmeipp

Over the years, I am starting to realize the best investments are usually the obvious and simplest ones.

Don't get too anchored to history. How about those they hand cash since March - June 09.... can't be perfect all the time. Live and learn.

Let me guess, you're getting the chinese water torture treatment from atp oil and gas? More than that. :'(

Good timing, indeed. I am stuck with it. This one doesn't rally much with the market but surely correcting with it. It will be fine! Ppl love paper.

A few more days like this? HOPE NOT! Although that may double the VIX which can be a good thing. I really thought O&G will outperform the market while the market corrects. Especially those with domestic assets... Too soon to tell! Still too early to admit that I am just dumb.

Even the majors are down 3-5%... :-\ :'(

Did we see the last spike of the bull market yet?

Lol this may just be the case. I hope it doubles for you and ATSG goes up 105% ;D. Sounds good. what's the timeframe like?

The smartest guy holds on to his FBK shares. :'(

guys, for a defensive play, is FFH better or Cash better?

so.. we have 1.3billions in China and similar number of ppl in Indian... 10% of them started to drive car and have better food... that's another US right there. So... commodities' prices are driven by supply and demand... more ppl want it and the prices up.. is it really make sense to compare price 10 years ago to now? Of coz, there is speculation premium build in..... and infrastructurei is overbuilt - but the most of the demand is real. IMO.

Commodities business with high growth and capex - you need to do projections. SD is especially hard but the numbers are all screw. CHK is an assets play - the hold more lands than they can drill all at once. So, they JV and sell some. They are going for liquid too. It's like SD 2 years ago in a much large scale. At the end, IMO, invest commodities is a macro call, especially for play like SD 1-2 years ago - you are forecasting that econ won't tank and cheap oil is gone. Now, SD is probably hedging oil like mad with $100+ and their cost is low. So, the fact that Prem is in SD in a big way is telling...

Heck- If I had move all my money in when I made this post, I will probably be typing this in a beach. And I don't have any ATSG now - I sold at around 1, then 3-4... I think.. that seems long ago - but that's just 2 years.

We can debate all years for this. Heck, I am even debating with myself on this - is the market expensive or not? - if market is expensive, should I go cash or should I hedge with index puts?... Some sectors are cheap.. Some sectors are expensive.. the market in general is not too crazy is my thought. Should I move to blue chips like WMT, JNJ... should I buy USD against CDN as hedge? Then I see companies worth 40-50 bucks trading at teens.. or things like FBK that is quietly becoming debt free. How can you buy banks without doing macro thinking... it's tough to fellow every rules he or she said... find your styles and if you screw up. tune it. After all, Buffett at 30 is not Buffett at 80. And we are dealing with much more info and competition our there now than before. Sorry for a post without key message or (many if you're me).

what are you guys talking about? Is there a book published about FFH?

I have learned that the govs will bail people out and move the debt from private to public. They will spend/print cash until rating agencies say they are junk. We have learned, ppl are saving more than they were - but the saver is helping the bailout in that their interest rate is near 0. Some corps have taken the chance to fix their balance sheets - building up cash, cutting expenses. We have learned about QE - making money out of thin area. Is the market in general pricey - yes. Is oil pricey - humm... i don't know - in relatively to what? Is USD pricey? With all those CASH printed around the world, is holding cash the best... I just don't know.

Interesting thread - i think most here think retirement as quit day job and manage our own money. Is that really retirement... Money needed to quit your damn job seems more appropriate.

Myth465, I think we can relax a bit on SD, it's still leveraged - but I feel pretty comfortable with the cash flow. PV10 is all about possible future revenue on the ground. (gas price - production cost) x discount rate. What it means to me is if they have spare rigs, they can generate profit from natural gas assets. They won't with 1:22. So, it's just a number. The borrowing base redetermination will be interesting. I got a feeling Tom want to hold 500k of the new play.

3-4 dollar is what...5x-6x cash flow? i sure can see it if the market sees eye-to-eye with the management. Obviously, the next catalyst is better number from RBK. re: exchange rate - most of the other pulps are US-based which makes their numbers look better than FBK. USD at 0.98 vs CDN now... But if we can get $50 raise on pulp price on average through the year - it can do wonder.

Trust me - we are on the same (or similar) page. Ultimately, ppl buy FBK's mills because of the cash flow it can generate (for the buyer). Not because how much FBK spent to buy those mills and not because how much it takes to re-produce the mills. if MERC and CFX can generate 200m CF on FBK's mills, they may be willing pay 1 billions for them. I am all for selling the co NOW at 4 bucks!

1.1b planned vs 1.3b current. So only 200m more than originally planned. I just noticed that get 200m from some mexico assets.

-10m for pension as well.

doesn't really matter what they format is. Their Mississippi play is comparable (or better) than Bakken. No wonder Tom pretty much bet the company on it.

Good call on the LEAPs. I used to have some $5 12 LEAP...sold and move to commons. The SD run happens so fast - sold too much too early. I think I must have 4x the current # of shares at one point. :P Well, can't complain about profit. :-\ SD will continue to do well, they hedged more in the recent spike. ATPG got news too. They lower the rate on fist lien from 11 to 9% and increase the limit. FBK will do fine but I see the chance of buyout low.

Nice release. I wonder whats in PV10 and if it includes all miss or only booked reserves. Ward will probably do a few more trusts and then will do a JV to drill the miss. They have to do something big to hold the whole thing by production. The leases are only 5 years and we can only drill 250k on our own. Its a nice problem to have. I cant wait for the call. This is my largest holding. How is your SD position compared to FBK? Mine is 1SD:1.3FBK.. hope it's the other way around!