racemize

8x seems like quite a low multiple to use--we wouldn't get great companies at such multiples (now as to whether this is a great company...seems questionable). What sparks you to use that as your threshold? On cashflow, do you mean it lags in terms of annual growth rates?

Ok, so in the next one, I will be sure to take out the Average P/E line--I was hoping to not give away the market valuation, even in general terms. My thoughts on this one: 1) I like the generally increasing earnings--appear to only have drops on recessions, so they are somewhat subject to general economic trends, which is generally expected. However, something odd seems to have happened in 2011, cash flow increased, but earnings did not. On the other hand, looking at free cash flow (cash flow - cap ex from the chart), it actually appeared to increase, so perhaps it was an odd noncash charge in that year. 2) Shares outstanding is generally on a downward trend. We don't know if the prices were good, but I generally like this as a rule. 3) There's some big fluctuations on return on equity, with an expected downward trend. I don't give forecasted earnings/stats much weight unless they are lower. In this case, I would take them a bit more seriously, going to a 13% ROE in 2015-2017 is not a promising trend, though still acceptable. 4) It appears a dividend will be coming for this one, no real thoughts on this, but it will be a change in how earnings are used. 5) Margins seem acceptable, though not outstanding. 6) They appear to have their biggest quarter near Christmas, so perhaps they are associated with retail. Supporting this is the leases in the debt structure. 7) Speaking of debt, it is a bit higher than I would like as net profits could not clear it out quickly. Additionally, their is a pension, which I'm not fond of, especially considering the assets being underneath obligation. 8.) Given all the above and plugging in some numbers, I'd only be interested in it at less than $65, of course including more research. Unless it has a large moat, it would probably need to be much less expensive than that.

There was some positive feedback to the blind valuation idea, so I thought I would go ahead and do one and see if people liked it. My wife was kind enough to pick one out and cut out the identifying information, so I also don't know who it is and can try it out myself. In any event, post up your valuation of the company with some reasons for support! Ideally, don't look at any early responses until you've typed or reasoned it out. Leaving blank space to avoid spoilers. Mystery_Company_for_Valuation_#1.pdf

there's a thread about this already where I posted some work arounds.

I think it is just from his comments, e.g., recently he said he had JPM in his personal account. I think I also read some of his comments on the HK stuff he was buying earlier this century.

Franklin?

incidentally, if you want to pull the latest S&P500 data including dividends, use this: =(Index(ImportHtml("http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--", "table", 7),4,7)) I also have it update based on the S&P500 so the TR updates in real time by taking the difference between the TR and the normal return and adding it to the current change in S&P500 ytd: =(Index(ImportHtml("http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--", "table", 7),4,7)) - (Index(ImportHtml("http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--", "table", 7),6,7))+E3 where E3 is current S&P ytd %.

yep, I've been having the same problem with FFH and with the index. Here's my fixes for it until they get it fixed: for inx: =ImportData( "http://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=%5EGSPC&ql=1&f=l1"&"&workaround="&INT(NOW()/TIME(0;2;0))&REPT(GoogleFinance("GOOG");0))*GoogleFinance("CURRENCY:CADUSD") for FFH (with conversion to USD): =ImportData( "http://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=FFH.TO&ql=1&f=l1"&"&workaround="&INT(NOW()/TIME(0;2;0))&REPT(GoogleFinance("GOOG");0))*GoogleFinance("CURRENCY:CADUSD")

I'm not advocating the article, but nice to have all these charts put together: http://www.businessinsider.com/politics-economics-facts-charts-2012-6#weve-had-an-amazingly-prosperous-run-for-the-last-70-years-but-we-just-had-a-big-unusual-hiccup-in-economic-growth-1

Same as the other thread, but with AIG.

Since there's a bunch of us in BAC, wanted to see how heavily we're in. I'm doing one for AIG as well.

I've seen a couple of Geoff Gannon's blind evaluation posts and thought they were neat (incidentally, is he popular for any reason other than that he's a good blogger, e.g., is it based on a record or some other notoriety that I am unaware of?). If I were to put up some fundamental data of a company, without its name or current price, would the board be interested in valuing it blindly as an exercise? For example, I might take the relevant data from a ValueLine sheet or some other source, either in a spreadsheet or a screenshot of some sort. I was thinking of doing it weekly or bi-weekly, if people were interested (and assuming I don't get lazy about it, I doubt I would if people really liked it). Let me know!

oh, I'd love to read his letters. If I asked him directly, would I have a shot at getting them?

it was pretty packed this year, seems like people are taking more notice in general.

Oh, that's right, I forgot since I use my own domain. Mine is stevensfund.com (Disclaimer, this fund is not open to investors, I just wanted to start keeping track and doing my own writing).

Google has the advantage of being free. That being said, it is awful to do customizations of the template with. My understanding is wordpress is much better, but it costs money. Not too much though. I use google--after getting through the nightmare of customization (note that mine was heavily customized, down to a lot of CSS and HTML hand editing), it isn't so bad.

shalab, I'm not certain what you are getting at with the stats on Berkshire relative to FFH--could you elaborate?

This one was specifically HARP. Like you, I couldn't say no, but it just seems odd as I need no help at all and there is a limited source of funds available for this. Now, I'm really going to have trouble justifying accelerating payment of my mortgage as it is at 3.75 percent (even lower with tax writeoff).

Note that FFH is nice enough to do the reserve triangle modification I mentioned above in their actual report (I haven't seen others do this), so you can just read it from the 10-k.

Wells appears to be doing everything through the mail, so far really painless. I think it takes about a month to complete though.

I think the modified triangles (that you have to do by hand) that shows the AY developments on a per year basis are somewhat useful. The ones that are in the 10-k's do not seem very informative on their face though.

and the guy was working late--apparently the only requirement is no second lien and not pulling out equity. Personally, I would have helped out someone other than myself, but I'll take a full 1% off my rate at no cost.

I was not expecting to get one--aren't these refinancings supposed to be for people who aren't making payments or are underwater? Letterhead and everything looks legit.

I think westlaw works for that, but it is quite expensive.

good lord, where did all those RSUs go?