racemize

Currently at 59%. I've been shifting from my big winner into bolstering my brk, ffh, bac, and AIG positions over the last month or so. *Note that this is pre-tax, and I do have some taxes on the port to deal with at the end of the year.

I'm holding until it's well over 20 and/or indefinitely!

From what I've heard, professional options traders/market makers don't use B-S to model prices anymore. In that case, why does anyone talk about B-S anymore? (I can't help but find it funny that we refer to as BS).

we've all gotten complacent with our value plays and are sitting on them! That thread makes me sad though. It is much more civil than the rest of the Internet, but it still shows how hard it is to get people to agree on anything. I don't think people even agree with a foundation on which to start a conversation.

nice use of hyperbole (I hope). I doubt anyone in this thread would agree that your characterizations are remotely close to what they are saying or believe, but please do go on and demonize the atheists as is apparently your want!

Actually, most of my problem with religion's exertion of power is via the government, e.g., changing what is taught in schools to support a religious viewpoint and/or downplay current science, exerting the will of the religious conservatives on the rest of us (e.g., birth control, pro choice, etc.). I personally don't care about other's religions as long as it stays away from my rights. I don't care about the name "marriage", but the issue is that married people get certain benefits that do not apply to other couples. That's where the discrimination is. For example, sharing medical coverage, visiting rights when one member is in the hospital, taxation, etc. Perhaps other people want it to be called marriage, but if it were civil unions, I'd be fine with it.

Moore posted this in another thread (thanks Moore!): http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2012/09/05/kickoff-presentation/play/stream/5567 The point of view presented makes a lot of sense to me. However, and this is the reason gold is in my "too hard" pile--e.g., if everyone is aware of all these issues, then a lot may already be priced in. He goes into a lot of reasons why it could go up or how to justify current/higher prices, but most of them are fairly soft, at least compared to looking at fundamental data of companies.

Yes, I forgot to mention that I read Dalio as well--that's been my favorite so far, thanks!

I've read BMI's MMT online website, but I would like to round out a bit. Could the kind people of the board on both sides point out some best in class reading material? Particularly, the Austrian side, but more reading on the MMT side is also appreciated. Thanks!

Well, when I get older, I hope to be humble and remain open minded or at least not verbally abusive.

I'd skipped this thread for the most part until Parsad mentioned it in another. Good conversations going on here. I grew up with my parents going from full blown religious to full blown atheism over a period of years. At this point, my father is obsessed with religiousness/bible, mostly in a negative way, e.g., finding and writing about contradictions or silliness in the bible. At this point, the sum of the impact of religion on him seems very negative to me. Personally, I just don't see the point in thinking about it that much. I believe in things that there is evidence for--if there isn't evidence, why make something up? There's tons of things we don't know and the universe is certainly interesting enough without adding anything else. If there is a god, but he never shows any evidence for himself, why bother? I just don't see what god adds that is necessary, perhaps a sense of purpose for the universe, but I guess I don't need a "Big Brother" for that. Just random thoughts, so carry on!

So I know Schiff got the housing bubble right, but I have trouble taking him seriously at all. It seems like all he does is spout the same doomsday stuff all the time, but never explains anything. Does he have any legitimate points for the current environment?

So, I understand what you are saying, but the blind evaluation can be much more than just using the numbers. For example, I've been doing the blind evaluations to focus on numbers and try to figure out something about the company based on the numbers alone. Additionally, I think it is interesting to try to get a sense of what the numbers say and augment that with the qualitative. For example, if I'm way off on my price with respect to the market, what does that mean? Taking gamestop in the last blind evaluation, it meant that the qualitative aspects drove down the price because of its outlook. Similarly, something like coke gets a higher valuation than what the numbers indicate (although maybe not at this point). Thus, you get feedback loops and can learn from that feedback. I think this is close to deliberate practice, in fact. I guess I would agree with you if there was no extra step after learning who the company was, e.g., comparing the numbers valuation to market and determining why there was a difference, seeing if the type of company could be identified, determining red flags and seeing if they could have been spotted using just the numbers, etc. Speaking of which, I need to get another one up...

I went to a talk of Clinton's science advisor (who was a professor at my university). Here was his anecdote regarding Clinton: He gave a summary of some science issue while there were a lot of people around and Clinton looked distracted/seemed like he wasn't listening. He started to say it again for emphasis, and Clinton stopped him and said "do not ever repeat things to me" or something along those lines. Apparently, just impressively smart.

I'd also be willing to help look through SPAM submissions to ease the pain from you, should that be a viable option.

If your brokerage doesn't have it, you'll have to do it yourself or buy a tool for it I think. I personally just use the XIRR formula on a spreadsheet and/or use a TWRR formula to do mine. You'll have to have every addition and subtraction over the 10 years to get an accurate number though. I keep track for full history and per year in my own records.

my wife apparently thought it would be funny to throw gamestop at us. This is definitely a case where qualitative outweighs the quantitative.

incidentally, will post answer tomorrow and the next one soon.

My thoughts: 1) nice increasing earnings at a good clip, only one drop in 2008 area. However, earnings growth is expected to be significantly less going forward, so I'll take that seriously for valuation purposes. 2) no debt--yay 3) had a period where it didn't have stores, but made money? Not sure what does that. Retail type net profit margins, most of money made at Christmas. 4) book value appears to be significant relative to earnings 5) Following from 4, ROTC/ROE are almost below my threshold for companies, so it would need to be fairly cheap for consideration 6) share count coming down, so buyback in place. Hopefully buying at decent prices. This one needs a lot more qualitative bonuses for consideration, and a good price. I'd say <35 dollars for consideration and assume the market is around 45.

maybe I not understanding this poll--why is short < 0%? Someone 100% long is <10% cash, but then someone short is less than 0% cash? Shouldn't it be greater than 100% cash for shorting? Or maybe just not a percentage. Anyway, I've confused myself.

yeah, I could see that as one of the few perks I would actually use.

EMH = ? I'm used to Efficient Market Theory. Is it hypothesis?

Here's the latest blind evaluation. Blank space to avoid spoilers. Blind_Eval_3.pdf

ValueLine had similar comments to this re the downturn/pick up again. At this point, it seems like all the good news is pretty well priced in.

re margins, I was mostly looking at net margin. In any event, the company was family dollar (FDO): http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FDO%2C+&ql=1 and the price is pretty high (65). I've really only been to these type of stores one or two times (I think I went to a dollar store), so I don't know too much about them. One of the Buffett mininos bought dollar general, which I believe is similar. In any event, price seems too high to consider at this point.