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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/08/2024 in all areas

  1. I find it interesting how the sentiment on this board has swung wildly over the past week or 10 days. Immediately following the Q2 release, posters in this forum were almost euphoric about the EPS numbers, the CRs, and interest income. A short week later, some are almost despondent about Mr. Market suddenly spurning FFH's shares! Whatever. The hard market had to abate eventually and the central bank tightening process was always likely to stop and potentially reverse. In the mean time, the shares closed yesterday at US$1050, which is pretty much bang-on with BV adjusted for the excess of fair value over carrying value. Barring some sort of outrageous growth in the CR, we know that FFH will earn a tonne of money for the next 2 or 3 years, and somebody holding the shares at 1x BV today will likely do perfectly well if those shares are still valued at 1x adjusted BV on Dec 31, 2026. The nice thing about this market pull-back is that FFH actually seems to be serious about repurchasing its shares. I am a cheap bastard and have always been so. When I saw the level of repurchases in Q2, I had a few migivings about it because I didn't view FFH's shares to be table-pounding cheap during the quarter. We can all debate about exactly how high intrinsic value is for FFH - some will suggest 1.2x, BV some will be ballsier and suggest 1.4x or 1.5x - but in any event, we are back down to a share price that strikes me as a no-brainer for repurchases. Even the cheapest bastards (like me) know that FFH is likely worth at least 1.2x adjusted BV. It's nice to see that the company once again has a target for deploying potentially significant amounts of capital in a manner that will create value for continuing shareholders. Just like the Muddy Waters kerfuffle, this is an opportunity rather than a problem. SJ
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  2. Interesting. I see that as disciplined and not a negative. Go figure.
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  3. Is that Brett Horn? He's stuck in the past. "we believe disciplined underwriting is a more reliable path to long-term value creation...." - yeah buddy, we all do. You don't have to be good at your job when you have a job like his. Remember - companies miss analysts' figures not the other way around!
    1 point
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