I don’t think you can compare Berkshire with pretty much any company out there today. It is a unique company. And it is also being managed in a strange sort of way - primarily wealth preservation. It is not the same company it was 20 or more years ago. The CEO is in his 90’s. I view Berkshire as a bond-like substitute. It will probably provide a return similar to the S&P500 over time.
Fairfax is a completely different set up. The company was until very recently a hated stock. As a result it got wicked cheap. It is still crazy cheap. My guess is it will earn $150/share in 2023. With shares trading at $729, that is a PE under 5. Lets use $120/share as a normalized run rare for earnings the next few years… that puts the PE at… 6x. Really? That only makes sense if Fairfax has a shitty insurance business, poorly managed investments and sub-par management team. And that, of course, is completely wrong.
The size of the insurance business has increased in size 4x in last 9 years, from $6 billion in 2014 to $24 billion in 2023E. Digit has been a home run. Fairfax are also good underwriters. Fairfax has done a stellar job managing their insurance businesses over the past 9 years.
Fairfax’s fixed income portfolio is best in class right now. They just completed a historic pivot (in how they managed the duration). Duration is getting pushed out. And 80% of it is in government securities (very high credit quality).
The TRS on FFH shares was a brilliant purchase and one that will earn Fairfax well over $1 billion. Eurobank is firing on all cylinders… it just released its Q1 report and is projecting to earn Euro 0.22/share in 2023 after earning 0.18/share in 2022. Fairfax is exceptionally well positioned in India. They also look very well positioned in energy/commodities. Fairfax’s equity portfolio has never looked better.
The management team at Fairfax has been hitting the ball out of the park for years. They are a best in class group. .
For the current positioning of the insurance business and investments, given the quality of the management team, and given the quality of earnings that are coming, Fairfax remains historically undervalued.
The ‘narrative’ surrounding the company is simply wrong. It is slowly changing - as Fairfax continues to deliver outstanding results.