All Activity

ok! I’m up north (although people tell me Virginia is still the south but it isn’t) and I got two bottles of dry Riesling from the finger lakes and I’m chilling them now so better late than never - thanks for the rec Spek

This was a great listen with a very smart investor.

If you didn't think crude prices were going up on Monday ... earlier today a tanker in the Strait of Homuz hit a naval mine. Taking its chances, navigating an Iranian non approved route, quite possibly with US 'assistance'; the Asian oil market opens today at 18:00 EST. Incredible weaponry, etc ... yet the US can't even adequately protect its own troops in their Gulf bases. Not going to go well for tanker rates, insurance, keeping ships crewed, etc, etc ..... and not going to change until an international coalition takes over shipping security. https://ca.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-fc-5918_3&hsimp=yhs-5918_3&hspart=fc&param1=7&param2=eJwtjstqwzAURH9FywQk%2BV7JkuVoFTfNB5SuKrRQHdURfmI7uPTri0OYzcCcgdOkm7P%2B44IAShXaUT8465UCcNTvk6O%2BdtaXZemoT5OzHk3OMddcoOQojKO%2BiaOzvg6O%2Bkdw1vfjX%2Bq6kCkO5LCl4TZuCxlWgsDBki0NOrfkV%2BdHEqapi1v8btOaKVlwqcmhva99R0mX2kiaWLfjkdT3eexjhgr4M2QJP2FOr8sutqSX7GOJ87O%2FyVypdwMMQFcM8YqsNFfJDF702Uiszrra%2BXqHBQjNQDAQn1iesDiB5sLA1z%2BSHFHt&p=Al+Jazeera+mine+strait+of+homuz&type=fc_A0DBACA6D59_s69_g_e_d_n5500_c999#id=1&vid=94d80a7b5a1b9390a65997f232346b2b&action=click SD

John, you tend to have much more perspective on these issues than most.

Ignoring the issue? And for a value investing board, memories are short when it comes to a babbling brook of a president.

@73 Reds, Yes, you're right. So I was speculating above.

At certain point, possibly this very moment, how can it not, still loaded with good assets.

Even if you buy a “great company”, the timing is extremely important as value does not necessarily to accrue proportional to intrinsic value. A great company can be a bad investment when bought at a too high valuation at the worn time. this has always been true but we went through a period from 2010 to 2021 where in general multiples were generally expanding for quality company across the board , so it seemed like this self evident law was not valid any more. However, it should be obvious to anyone that you can just as well overpay for a quality stock than any one stock.

Wow Reds...you aren't alone? Neither is Sanjeev in his words. What does that mean? The good thing for all of us is Trump's age...and attention span. Neither allow him to go too far with much of anything. He's on the edge to being an ignored worthless babbling brook.

John, there is clearly a lot going on that we don't know about and likely never will until the Iran conflict is over. People are always swift in drawing conclusions while lacking the information necessary to draw real conclusions. Unfortunately, narratives rule the day until the facts are disclosed. Personally, I choose to ignore narratives for what they are - worthless.

The very notion that you choose to equate Tump and Hitler really makes me question a lot. Don't think I'm alone here.

Why is it that you and your cadre never address the real issue? That being, everyone who votes prioritizes certain issues and polices and votes for the candidate who most closely aligns with those priorities. No one here EVER suggested that Trump is or was a perfect candidate or anything close. You all prefer speak in "winning picks" and the like, which says absolutely nothing about whether the issues and polices we voted for are improving. That's what matters to voters.

@Loss Horizon, Luxury companies in reality have the ability to tax human vanity! - Fragile business model

Sanjeev [ @Parsad ], I personally think it tells something about the extent and intensity of the nightly US strikes on Iran, strikes, that we don't hear much about in detail in the news media. Likely absolutely awfull for the Iranian population. It's quite an issue of concern also in Europes support to Ukraine in its war against Russia, where munitions to superior defence systems developed by companies in the US military industrial complex are imperative in the defence of Ukranine, especially the city of Kyiv. And nobody can really blame USA for giving priority to it's own domestic demand from US Army, US Navy and US Air Force.

This morning I read in the Danish News Media Berlingske [ berlingske.dk ] about the elapse of the White House Correspondent's Dinner yesterday, so that I out of curiosity simly had to find it on YouTube and see it on TV [ ]. Obviously Trump doesen't like the setup out his own control as such, so he simply derails the whole thing for more than an hour with an endless stream of ramblings about anything and nothing! - After listening and viewing about half of it, the Lady of the House started complaining about that she can't take any more of it, and now I need to stop it! PBS NewsHour [July 25th 2026] : WATCH LIVE: Trump speaks at White House correspondents' dinner after attack disrupted April event

Trump and his staff emphasized to NATO allies how they need to carry the load, spend more on their own defense, etc. Well, maybe the U.S. needs to spend more on their own military supplies: https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/25/politics/us-iran-strikes-operation Munitions stockpiles seem to be a recurring theme when the U.S. goes on this blitz bombardments on Iran. Maybe it's fact, not just media hyperbole! Cheers!

@Spekulatius, I think this is the most entertaining post in this topic for at least a while! - Great!

I apologize for the length of this clip. For all of my Canadian friends, may I just offer my apologies for Mr. Greenwood. Your country has done nothing to deserve his attempt to extend his moneymaking efforts to you.

True regarding France. They kept their nuclear arsenal separate from the NATO. The UK is very dependent on the US for their nuclear arsenal in terms of technology.

France and uk already have them

I actually like Disney and bought some shares. I think it’s one example where the fundamentals have stalled and now they improving but Mr Market is sceptical and hence the stock has not reacted yet. At least that’s the story the chart is telling me. I could be wrong and it’s a false start but I think there is a good chance that the future is a whole lot better than the past.

Charts are telling. The Disney chart is damning. If you can get in front of positive changes at a dominant company that has luffed, you have a tailwind of years. Tencent has been running a great business for years but the macro has sucked; I can't blame Ma for it. Disney has a management problem which could conceivably improve. Is the IP flywheel really broken? ABNB invented a category which was genius but is kind of tired at this point. Taking out the garbage on vacation has lost its charm. Chesky's diddling won't help. Nintendo has sick IP but thinks shareholders are the great unwashed. As the great autistic triillionaire monk has said, consider the most ironic outcome, for it is the most likely. Most ironic outcomes: Nintendo gets bought Relations with China improve and Tencent is allowed to expand in the US Disney wises up politically and creates exciting new content in house Coupang buys detente

VEEV and SAP Wed, Thur, and Fri this week.

Let's hope that Treasury markets can forever continue absorbing these enormous levels of debt issuance. A nation with a personal savings rate of 3% is running budget deficits of 7% to GDP and growing. It'll certainly become interesting when all this spending eventually has a cost attached to it. Congress consists of a total 535 members, you have 1 president and his cabinet, and the Supreme court has 9 justices. That's your government folks: effectively 545 people. Like I said, it will be interesting.

The fact that Harris and Trump were the two best candidates that our country could muster shows just how much danger our democracy is currently in. The 118th Congress, serving from Jan 2023 to Jan 2025, was the most dysfunctional legislature we've had since preceding the Civil War. They passed some of the least amount of laws in the history of our nation, and many of the ones that did pass were quite trivial in nature And for the all the Trumpers who have somehow convinced themselves that our president is anything but a complete disaster, may I recommend undergoing a brain transplant? I've found that the avid Trump supporter is about as sharp as a marble. And while irrationality like that may lead to little personal consequence when practiced politically, it will absolutely kill you in financial markets. The laws and nature of money do not care about you. Truly, they have the capability of destroying you if you remain improperly positioned. The numbers say we're in the greatest stock market bubble in history, there's no doubt in my mind, while at the same time we have a government that is printing debt like there's no tomorrow, all combined with a populace that believes money indeed does grow on trees. False optimism can be a dangerous thing folks. So will Trump end the world? Probably not, though thermonuclear weapons however do exist. I've read that Vladimir Putin is acting increasingly paranoid lately. I believe that humans can be capable of immense success. We have shown, time and time again, that we can be incredible at adapting, and ultimately overcoming, the enormous obstacles that are thrown in our path. In the darkest days of the past, when our species was staring into an abyss so scary that it's hard to imagine, people still found a way to endure. Our potential is limitless. But I also believe the odds of a financial catastrophe are a lot higher than many people think. While I can't prove whether or not there is a god, I do know that he will not be there for us as some form of ultimate backstop. Humans created these problems and we're the same ones that are gonna have to solve them. It's up to us.