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Malcolm Gladwell on Overconfidence


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Always remember that a trader is just an opinionated salesman, but to be a really good salesman you also have to be a sociopath. I am the center of the universe, because I am the best at what I do, I prove it everyday, & all others bow before me.


But every trophy wife knows otherwise.

1) Our trader is only good if everyone else chooses to play his game, his way – which is why there’s a rant every time the game changes.

2) Yes our trader really is good; but only so long as his game lasts, & it can’t last forever. So flatter, push, destabilize, & get as much as possible – now. Before he blows up.

3) Her best trade is to short. Get paid from the blow up, & get paid again from the divorce - but to get the timing right you have to stay near him.


Taleb’s continuous hedge strategy is a bet on 3), & that it happens every 4-7 years or so.

Human nature would seem to ensure that he’ll pretty much always get it





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