Malcolm Gladwell on Overconfidence

[MartinWhitman]

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/07/27/090727fa_fact_gladwell?currentPage=all

[dcollon]

Thanks for posting the article.

[SharperDingaan]

 

Always remember that a trader is just an opinionated salesman, but to be a really good salesman you also have to be a sociopath. I am the center of the universe, because I am the best at what I do, I prove it everyday, & all others bow before me.

 

But every trophy wife knows otherwise.

1) Our trader is only good if everyone else chooses to play his game, his way – which is why there’s a rant every time the game changes.

2) Yes our trader really is good; but only so long as his game lasts, & it can’t last forever. So flatter, push, destabilize, & get as much as possible – now. Before he blows up.

3) Her best trade is to short. Get paid from the blow up, & get paid again from the divorce - but to get the timing right you have to stay near him.

 

Taleb’s continuous hedge strategy is a bet on 3), & that it happens every 4-7 years or so.

Human nature would seem to ensure that he’ll pretty much always get it

 

SD

 

 

[Guest kawikaho]

Wow, I don't know what to make of what was just said.