jb85 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Does anyone still believe in bitcoin? I was skeptical from the start (my 'no' vote in the poll was recorded at the height of the mania). However, I think the concept is still very interesting and we might see some new crypto-currency emerge to take bitcoin's place. The thing is that I can't see it having more success unless there is some regulatory environment to keep the fraudster's in check. I still "believe" in it...or at least some form of cryptocurrency (though i certainly admit it could/is likely to fail). I would agree that regulation will help with adoption, but i believe that will be a country by country issue and the bitcoin at the base protocol will remain unregulated (it is very difficult to regulate bitcoin transactions...much easier to regulate the entry/exit points to bitcoin - fiat to btc exchanges, merchants accepting bitcoin, etc - but again, with bitcoin this could a "whack a mole" type problem for the govt). I very much think an all bitcoin world would be vastly superior to the various currencies we have now. However all of this is essentially a discussion between whether you think a central authority should have control over the money supply or whether you are for freely competing currencies (minor other discussion points are whether that money supply should be fixed or not...various cryptocurrencies have different inflation/deflation rates so you can choose what you favor). In the past, if a individual created a currency, it was quickly and easily shut down by governments. For the first time there is a currency that is not as easy to shut down. We shall see whether that difficulty of shutting down allows bitcoin to grow. Furthermore, its not an all or nothing situations. if 70% of countries outlaw bitcoin, but 30% use it, then bitcoin will still be wildly successful. It would take coordinated actions by every government in the world to truly shut down. How we get there is my biggest question mark. We can't have this sort of volatility if people are going to use it for every day purchases (though i will say many emerging market currencies show similar volatility pattern to btc as of late...but btc definitely needs a longer track record) Other interesting ideas for using the blockchain are: *timestamped transactions. example: if i want to donate money to a heir of mine, i no longer have to use a third party. Program address ABC (controlled by me) to give 50 bitcoins to address XYZ (controlled my my heir) when timestamp = 2020. *betting without third parties. require a X of Y signature transaction, so no third party is needed in a 2 party bet. example: i want to bet you that tomorrow temp will be 50 degrees or higher. we start a 2 of 3 signature transaction. You and 1 each are one of the three, with the third being a program that check on google, whether the temp is above 50...if yes, then sign, if no then don't sign. Therefor the third party (google search script) is the deciding factor. it is incorruptible and removes the need for an expensive third party) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Does anyone still believe in bitcoin? I was skeptical from the start (my 'no' vote in the poll was recorded at the height of the mania). However, I think the concept is still very interesting and we might see some new crypto-currency emerge to take bitcoin's place. The thing is that I can't see it having more success unless there is some regulatory environment to keep the fraudster's in check. Oh absolutely. Mt Gox finally dying has nothing to do with the viability of Bitcoin. If Microsoft discontinues Hotmail do you give up on email? I think MT Gox going down might well be the trigger for another growth spurt in the price. I think it's highly unlikely for the price to be below $1k by the end of the year by any means. Why is everyone calling for regulation "to keep fraudsters in check"? "Yes, let's stop using Dollars because people sometimes pickpocket each other" would be the equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its been very clear to anyone following bitcoin that they were at the very least having issues. No one doing even a minimal amount of research should've been investing with Mt Gox. My personal feeling is that the Gox CEO lost/had stolen 200K+ bitcoins in 2011. Since then he has been running a sort of fractional reserve system with the gox coins...trying to makeup for the 200K lost coins via fees. In theory he could've pulled this off but it would've required much more price stability and deposit withdraw stability than actually occurred. Interesting how nobody in this thread said a word against Mt Gox until 2 weeks ago. Hindsight bias is a powerful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb85 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its been very clear to anyone following bitcoin that they were at the very least having issues. No one doing even a minimal amount of research should've been investing with Mt Gox. My personal feeling is that the Gox CEO lost/had stolen 200K+ bitcoins in 2011. Since then he has been running a sort of fractional reserve system with the gox coins...trying to makeup for the 200K lost coins via fees. In theory he could've pulled this off but it would've required much more price stability and deposit withdraw stability than actually occurred. Interesting how nobody in this thread said a word against Mt Gox until 2 weeks ago. Hindsight bias is a powerful thing. I voted with my dollars/bitcoins (ie never used them). If it is truly hindsight bias, then why did I and many others go through the troublesome task of creating paper wallets and moving our coins off the exchanges? If its really hindsight bias, and i thought that the possiblity of a mt gox bankrupcty was very low/0%, then why go through all these extra steps. Much easier just to buy coins and store them on gox (i learned the hard way with my bitfloor theft...i'm never trusting an exchange again or at least not until security is drastically improved) Just so its in writing and i won't be accused of any more "hindsight bias", i think every exchange has a non trivial chance of running into major issues at any time. gun to my head, i'd say BTC-e will be next major btc org to run into problems IMO. The best exchange right now is coinbase (if i were in the US i wouldn't use any other exchange save possibly for international wire xfer to bitstamp and immediate xfer to cold storage), though i want to be clear they too could have issues. As i've said many times before, don't trust any online exchange with a significant amount of coins. Research offline cold wallets and store them yourself. I'm not some wizard who can pick out the next btc bankruptcy. With cold storage wallets i don't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Its been very clear to anyone following bitcoin that they were at the very least having issues. No one doing even a minimal amount of research should've been investing with Mt Gox. My personal feeling is that the Gox CEO lost/had stolen 200K+ bitcoins in 2011. Since then he has been running a sort of fractional reserve system with the gox coins...trying to makeup for the 200K lost coins via fees. In theory he could've pulled this off but it would've required much more price stability and deposit withdraw stability than actually occurred. Interesting how nobody in this thread said a word against Mt Gox until 2 weeks ago. Hindsight bias is a powerful thing. I never made a new account after they were hacked and lost their entire database of user data in the summer of 2011 (and they reverted a few hours of trading). If you ever read the Bitcointalk forums you would have known they have been a shitty exchange always, and have been illiquid for many months. Everyone knew this. If you had money in MTGox you speculated and lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Does anyone still believe in bitcoin? I was skeptical from the start (my 'no' vote in the poll was recorded at the height of the mania). However, I think the concept is still very interesting and we might see some new crypto-currency emerge to take bitcoin's place. The thing is that I can't see it having more success unless there is some regulatory environment to keep the fraudster's in check. Oh absolutely. Mt Gox finally dying has nothing to do with the viability of Bitcoin. If Microsoft discontinues Hotmail do you give up on email? I think MT Gox going down might well be the trigger for another growth spurt in the price. I think it's highly unlikely for the price to be below $1k by the end of the year by any means. Why is everyone calling for regulation "to keep fraudsters in check"? "Yes, let's stop using Dollars because people sometimes pickpocket each other" would be the equivalent. I fail to see how a company discontinuing an underutilized email service is in any way analogous to 7% of the outstanding Bitcoins being up and stolen from a major exchange. The real damage will come if 60 minutes or some major news program does a story on this that reaches the masses. That's what I'm focused on. You don't want an image of risk and shadiness associated with cryptocurrency amongst the general public. At some point cryptocurrency needs to emerge from the underground. Sure, Mt. Gox situations can be avoided if you read Bitcoin message boards all the time, but how viable is Bitcoin for most people if they have to closely follow message boards just so they can be confident their coins don't get stolen during the night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoddDisciple Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The real damage will come if 60 minutes or some major news program does a story on this that reaches the masses. That's what I'm focused on. You don't want an image of risk and shadiness associated with cryptocurrency amongst the general public. At some point cryptocurrency needs to emerge from the underground. Honestly, from a philosophical perspective, BTC doesn't interest me as much if you can use it to buy throw pillows on Overstock.com. All that's going to do is allow businesses to save on the credit card processing fee somewhat and be a pain in the ass if you actually want to return something. I was reading Bitcointalk and actually saw an interesting post regarding how corruption in China may be tied to 10%-20% of the wealth in the nation. There have already been instances of corrupted officials transporting their gray wealth in areas such as collectibles. One thing that was fascinating were these 1980 Zodiac Monkey stamps that have a value of 8 cents RMB, but trade at 10k+ RMB. BTC or some alternative could be a better proxy for under the table trades: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=483304.0 A currency/commodity built on corruption & criminality; now that sounds sexier :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Does anyone still believe in bitcoin? I was skeptical from the start (my 'no' vote in the poll was recorded at the height of the mania). However, I think the concept is still very interesting and we might see some new crypto-currency emerge to take bitcoin's place. The thing is that I can't see it having more success unless there is some regulatory environment to keep the fraudster's in check. Oh absolutely. Mt Gox finally dying has nothing to do with the viability of Bitcoin. If Microsoft discontinues Hotmail do you give up on email? I think MT Gox going down might well be the trigger for another growth spurt in the price. I think it's highly unlikely for the price to be below $1k by the end of the year by any means. Why is everyone calling for regulation "to keep fraudsters in check"? "Yes, let's stop using Dollars because people sometimes pickpocket each other" would be the equivalent. I fail to see how a company discontinuing an underutilized email service is in any way analogous to 7% of the outstanding Bitcoins being up and stolen from a major exchange. The real damage will come if 60 minutes or some major news program does a story on this that reaches the masses. That's what I'm focused on. You don't want an image of risk and shadiness associated with cryptocurrency amongst the general public. At some point cryptocurrency needs to emerge from the underground. Sure, Mt. Gox situations can be avoided if you read Bitcoin message boards all the time, but how viable is Bitcoin for most people if they have to closely follow message boards just so they can be confident their coins don't get stolen during the night... Okay, how about Google discontinuing GMail? Same thing, e-mail won't stop and neither will Bitcoin. What makes you think "shadiness" being connected or disconnected to Cryptocurrency by media have any long term effects whatsoever? Fraud is possible with anything that holds value, so I'm glad fraud's possible with Bitcoin. The money being stolen is actually good news for the Bitcoin price as the real supply is actually 850,000 BTC less than what the price was apparently based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The money being stolen is actually good news for the Bitcoin price as the real supply is actually 850,000 BTC less than what the price was apparently based on. ;D You've got to be kidding me, man. What, you think the thieves stole the BTC and then just retired them, like they were buying back stock? They stole the BTC and then sold them back on the open market for MONEY, because that's the point of stealing them. The supply doesn't change. What makes you think "shadiness" being connected or disconnected to Cryptocurrency by media have any long term effects whatsoever? Fraud is possible with anything that holds value, so I'm glad fraud's possible with Bitcoin. Because if Bitcoin's price is to continue rising long term, especially at the rate it has in the past, it will have to attract more buyers. It cannot continue to just be owned by criminals and Bitcoin message board enthusiasts. If the general public begins to perceive Bitcoin as a risky thing to own, they won't buy. But that's who you're are going to need to buy. The public image of Bitcoin is a very important thing right now, as the concept is still in its infancy, most people don't know about and/or understand it, and its not a given that it will be around for the long term, unlike most asset classes. Okay, how about Google discontinuing GMail? Same thing, e-mail won't stop and neither will Bitcoin. Do you really not get why a company voluntarily shutting down a service is not at all comparable to a company seeing their customer's assets stolen? This message board needs more facepalm emojis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just so its in writing and i won't be accused of any more "hindsight bias", i think every exchange has a non trivial chance of running into major issues at any time. gun to my head, i'd say BTC-e will be next major btc org to run into problems IMO. The best exchange right now is coinbase (if i were in the US i wouldn't use any other exchange save possibly for international wire xfer to bitstamp and immediate xfer to cold storage), though i want to be clear they too could have issues. As i've said many times before, don't trust any online exchange with a significant amount of coins. Research offline cold wallets and store them yourself. I'm not some wizard who can pick out the next btc bankruptcy. With cold storage wallets i don't have to. Just take a look at the actual stock exchanges. It is really difficult to run. You occasionally have busted trades and they have to go back and cancel them. You have companies like Knight Capital who has a ton of people looking over their code and testing it, and they can suddenly go bust because somebody didn't catch a negative sign somewhere. Most of these bitcoin exchanges/dealers don't even make profit yet. They are running with minimal manpower. When a venture capitalist gives one of them a few million dollars, they are not going to spend a year and all that money to upgrade security (which is largely invisible), because the venture capitalists would be very upset if you tell them that your old system was insecure and that you have not created any new features in the last year while your competitors are catching up. If the big boys who have decades of experience and far more funding can screw up, these tiny bitcoin exchanges/dealers are going to screw up far more often. And this is completely ignoring the potential for intentional malfeasance, which is very easy given that they are unregulated and authorities are far less likely to pursue a bitcoin thief as opposed to one that steals U.S. dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The money being stolen is actually good news for the Bitcoin price as the real supply is actually 850,000 BTC less than what the price was apparently based on. ;D You've got to be kidding me, man. What, you think the thieves stole the BTC and then just retired them, like they were buying back stock? They stole the BTC and then sold them back on the open market for MONEY, because that's the point of stealing them. The supply doesn't change. This has already happened and is therefore already price in. The people needing to replace their lost coins however, is not yet priced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The money being stolen is actually good news for the Bitcoin price as the real supply is actually 850,000 BTC less than what the price was apparently based on. ;D You've got to be kidding me, man. What, you think the thieves stole the BTC and then just retired them, like they were buying back stock? They stole the BTC and then sold them back on the open market for MONEY, because that's the point of stealing them. The supply doesn't change. This has already happened and is therefore already price in. The people needing to replace their lost coins however, is not yet priced in. How can you assume that? There is no "need" to replace their coins. Secondly, why would they "want" to replace their coins given what happened here? And third, how do you know they will have the funds to do so? Let's say they bought the coins for $10 or $100 a piece. How can you just assume they will spend $700 to replace all their coins. And besides, even if you were to argue that this is a good value investment, this point you are making is touting a momentum or volume trade. Nothing to do with the "intrinsic value" of the bitcoin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I have made a 180 on bitcoin and sold off the rest. I mean, it was 5$ a little over a year ago. And the number of transactions in the blockchain barely went up in that year. And it has had massive publicity in that time. It went from completly unknown to pretty much mainstream, and the number of transactions barely doubled. Clearly people dont use it. And looking at how practical it is, there are very good reasons it is only really used on blackmarkets. So basicly the fundamental value is measured in how much it is used, and it went from 5$ to 650$. The only thing that changed is hype, and day traders that speculate with it. You could say that it is massively overvalued. The fact that buffett didn't like it, and is not just neutral (ie: put it in his i dont understand it basket) doesnt make me more optimistic about it. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/warren-buffett-offers-7-key-investing-and-life-tips/ Honestly, my prediction, it will slowly return to a sub 100$ level in the next 5 years, and stay extremly niche. I dont think it will die off tho. Also the main selling point is that you can avoid banks using it. But that is only partially true, and really, why avoid banks? There is barely any inflation in the western world now, and banks work just fine for me honestly. Quick, pretty safe and no crazy fluctuations or risks with shady exchanges. The only way its really good is for ordering some quality drugs on the silk road :) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This is very odd. The Face Behind Bitcoin (newsweek.com) "You want to know about my amazing physicist brother?" says Arthur Nakamoto, Satoshi Nakamoto's youngest sibling, who works as director of quality assurance at Wavestream Corp., a maker of radio frequency amplifiers in San Dimas, Calif.... "My brother is an asshole. What you don't know about him is that he's worked on classified stuff. His life was a complete blank for a while. You're not going to be able to get to him. He'll deny everything. He'll never admit to starting Bitcoin." Alleged Bitcoin Inventor Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto: "My Prospects Harmed Because Of Newsweek's Article" "Mr. Nakamoto didn't mince words: "I did not create, invent or otherwise work on Bitcoin," he writes. "I unconditionally deny the Newsweek report. ... When Mr. Nakamoto told reporters that the story was incorrect in an exclusive interview with the Associated Press, Newsweek editor in chief Jim Impoco held firm. "We are absolutely standing by this," Impoco told the New York Times at the time. "It was an exhaustive investigation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwfm1985 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Not sure if this has been posted already, but a good read: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/2014/03/bitcoin-q-bubble-or-breakthrough-both.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikazo Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 Found an interesting alt coin that claims to be resistant to ASIC miners (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits). These purpose-built ASIC machines mine coins like crazy, making it hard for ordinary people to keep up. But Vertcoin employs adaptive memory requirements over time, making it uneconomical to build ASICs for Vertcoin in the first place. Once more ASICs come out for more coins, I'm guessing Vertcoin will become a popular choice. https://vertcoin.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eye4Valu Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The IRS is classifying Bitcoin as property, not currency, making it subject to ordinary income or capital gains: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/us-bitcoin-irs-idUSBREA2O1LR20140325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpetrescu Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Someday in the future, who knows when, bitcoin will be worth zero. Until then, who knows what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Someday in the future, who knows when, bitcoin will be worth zero. Until then, who knows what happens. That can be said for anything that has ever existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Someday in the future, who knows when, bitcoin will be worth zero. Until then, who knows what happens. That can be said for anything that has ever existed. Exactly. Even looking at the poll question at the top of this thread. I voted "no", but I'm trying to think what you could replace "bitcoin" with to make me vote "yes". Nothing is a perfectly safe store of value. There are many things safer than bitcoin for the short and medium term, but nothing that is absolutely safe. Things change, black swans happen. The past is no guarantee of the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb85 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 So if i understand it correctly, Buffett's main concern with bitcoin is that it can't used as a unit of account (hence his quote in the recent CNBC interview: "its dollars at both ends"). After researching some potential rebuttals to this, i found this article to be helpful. Its not entirely convincing but does lay the framework for how bitcoin could still function without being a unit of account for the foreseeable future: http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/blog1/2013/9/14/bitcoin-as-medium-of-exchange-now-and-unit-of-account-later.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 http://blockchain.info/nl/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= number is still relatively flat. sell before it goes to 10$ again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 http://blockchain.info/nl/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= number is still relatively flat. sell before it goes to 10$ again! Yeah so flat. What about making it logaritmic to take out the volatility? https://blockchain.info/nl/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address= and yes we see it is in fact rising exponentially. And meanwhile bigger and better things are constantly being announced, mostly with investments from venture capitalists and the development of ETFs. Did you also check the SecondMarket fund has continuously been buying large amounts during the bear market? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0 Maybe also stay of the Buttcoin reddit (extremely low quality content) and read this instead http://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 yeah, the number of people who have heard of bitcoin went up 1000x, and the number of transactions went up twice. Im not sure what you mean by logaritmic. What you are doing is clasically misinterpreting data. Ofcourse it looks like that if you take 2009 and 2010 into account. It went from zero to something. But you have to look at the difference between 2012 and 2014. In 2012 maybe a few million people (at the very most) have heard of it and it was very niche, and now maybe close to a billion people have heard of it world wide. It has been all over the news in most countrys multiple times. The number of merchants accepting it has exploded last year. Yet the number of transactions is barely up between being virtually unknown and being widely known and understood. Also how the hell do all these ventures help making bitcoin more practical? I still have to go through more trouble to pay for something with bitcoin. I have to take fluctuation risks, I have to sent in papers, and I have to risk putting money in shady exchanges. It is not better in anyway then a credit card (when used right). Plus you also have to take into account people trading it, and arbitraging between exchanges, that number went up a lot as well. And if you look at sites like bitpay, you will also see that the reported $ number of transactions is very low compared to a credit card company. Now why is nobody using it? It isnt better. It is more hassle, and it has more risk. It is a inferior form of payment in everyway compared to banks and credit cards. I was in Cyprus, supposedly the capital of bitcoin. Several people had heard of it, but they all found it very impractical. DESPITE HALF THEIR BANKS STEALING THEIR MONEY. That is how much bitcoin sucks as a means of payment. Nobody is even using it there. edit: Also the spike in 2012, is right around when those illegal market places were getting in the news. I saw people mentioning silk road etc back then and it got picked up by the underground community. But growth in those markets is pretty limited by the postal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 yeah, the number of people who have heard of bitcoin went up 1000x, and the number of transactions went up twice. Im not sure what you mean by logaritmic. If you make the scale logarithmic and the function is a straight line it means the rise is exponential. It went from 100 to 63k in 4.5 years. Compared with a year ago it's increased nearly 8-fold. And we're looking at the absolute number of transactions now and not the chart excluding popular addresses (on chain gambling that went on for a period) which severely distorts the graph. The rest of your post mostly shows your confusing main points with side points. Shady exchanges, for example, are not part of Bitcoin and people that cannot separate the two are going to miss the best opportunity in their lifetimes. Anyway: carry on ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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