benchmark Posted September 13, 2014 Posted September 13, 2014 You could look at after-tax income (the real world) to make the income disparity more realistic. That would narrow the gap. Second, you could add in the working-poor subsidies/benefits to further decrease the gap. Then you'd have a more accurate picture. You've got high earners being taxed at 50% in Cali, and people are acting like 100% of it is "personal income". That's bull sh**. 50%+ tax rate is insane .... wondering if it's the highest in US?
Guest wellmont Posted September 13, 2014 Posted September 13, 2014 You could look at after-tax income (the real world) to make the income disparity more realistic. That would narrow the gap. Second, you could add in the working-poor subsidies/benefits to further decrease the gap. Then you'd have a more accurate picture. You've got high earners being taxed at 50% in Cali, and people are acting like 100% of it is "personal income". That's bull sh**. 50%+ tax rate is insane .... wondering if it's the highest in US? actually california residents voted for the higher taxes -- called Proposition 30. there was talk of the super rich up and leaving, but it didn't happen for the most part. apparently living in California is a pretty sweet deal, especially, it seems, for high taxed uber wealthy who can afford to live in the nicest parts of it. And you may have noticed that Silicon Valley and SF in particular, where the uber wealthy like to hang out and start businesses, have done exceedingly well since prop 30 passed. http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_24443873/proposition-30-year-later-california-schools-seeing-benefits
JEast Posted September 17, 2014 Posted September 17, 2014 The drama continues as we appear to have entered Act 2 with PBOC's new mini-QE prior to a scheduled FED announcement (read as not coincidental). As such, currencies are tanking against the USD. Just a thought. When the USD was deflating, it spread global commodity inflation. If Asian currencies are now deflating in a race to the bottom, will that result in exporting global deflation??
wisdom Posted September 17, 2014 Posted September 17, 2014 Will the QEs by ECB, Japan and China be enough to counter the US shutting down it's QE and eventually raising rates? If Fairfax is going to make money on it's bet on deflation - the next couple of years are going to be interesting. Deflation in Japan showed up 5 years after the initial bust.
giofranchi Posted October 5, 2014 Author Posted October 5, 2014 One bullish view (from Anatole Kaletsky), one bearish view (from Charles Gave)... though I hope the bull is right, I think the bear makes much more sense... GioEVA+10.3.2014+NA.pdf
ERICOPOLY Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 BAC's stock price will be 19.29 if it rises another 2 points. Now if that isn't an ominous sell signal, I don't know what is.
Kraven Posted October 5, 2014 Posted October 5, 2014 BAC's stock price will be 19.29 if it rises another 2 points. Now if that isn't an ominous sell signal, I don't know what is. That is very ominous indeed. I have also heard that every time there was a crash it came in a year with 12 months. We have 12 months in the year now. Food for thought.
giofranchi Posted October 5, 2014 Author Posted October 5, 2014 BAC's stock price will be 19.29 if it rises another 2 points. Now if that isn't an ominous sell signal, I don't know what is. That is very ominous indeed. I have also heard that every time there was a crash it came in a year with 12 months. We have 12 months in the year now. Food for thought. It is good to be hilarious… It might be as good to make sure we will do fine both if a market crash comes and if it doesn’t… I am quite confident I will do fine in both scenarios… But I guess I am only an arrogant son of a… (sorry mom… I love you! ;D) Cheers, Gio
Guest Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 do any of you guys have a copy of Bridgewater's most recent letter? Zerohedge had it but it looks like it's down. Here's a small excerpt: Bridgewater Warns Low Volatility Markets “Sow The Seeds Of Their Own Demise” http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/337196 Which leads to this one: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-04/bridgewater-warns-low-volatility-markets-sow-seeds-their-own-demise
giofranchi Posted October 14, 2014 Author Posted October 14, 2014 Good letter by John Mauldin. If he is right, Fairfax is going to earn $billions! ;) Gio141013_TFTF2.pdf
Liberty Posted October 15, 2014 Posted October 15, 2014 http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/10/how-often-does-the-stock-market-correct/
giofranchi Posted October 17, 2014 Author Posted October 17, 2014 Hoisington Quarterly Review Q3 2014 GioHIM2014Q3NP.pdf
giofranchi Posted October 21, 2014 Author Posted October 21, 2014 Another good weekly letter by John Mauldin. The Return of the XIX Century Panic by Charles Gave is very interesting, as usual. :) Gio141020_TFTF.pdf
giofranchi Posted November 22, 2014 Author Posted November 22, 2014 Yesterday the Shiller PE of the S&P500 reached 27… On our way to 29-30?… Like 1929?... That's when I will call a bubble in stocks! We will see… ;) Gio
giofranchi Posted November 22, 2014 Author Posted November 22, 2014 Evergreen / Gavekal Monthly Chartbook November 2014 GioEVA+11.21.2014_NA.pdf
frommi Posted November 22, 2014 Posted November 22, 2014 Yesterday the Shiller PE of the S&P500 reached 27… On our way to 29-30?… Like 1929?... That's when I will call a bubble in stocks! We will see… ;) Gio That level around S&P500 2215 fits very well with the Fibonacci extension of 161% of the first move from 2009->2011 so this could be a decent target to put on some hedges again.
giofranchi Posted December 9, 2014 Author Posted December 9, 2014 Kyle Bass: 'Only massive debt restructuring can save EU' http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/9639507.stm Gio
giofranchi Posted December 13, 2014 Author Posted December 13, 2014 Good weekly commentary by David Hay of Evergreen/Gavekal GioEVA+12.12.2014+NA.pdf
petec Posted December 18, 2014 Posted December 18, 2014 Apparently, making predictions is hard... Funnily enough I found Prem's slide on interest rates after the Wall St crash and in Japan today. Average trough for long term rates 2%, average time taken to get there after the panic, 14 years, average rates 20 years after the panic 2.5%! I know these are different times, but I do wonder whether we are in for a much longer period of low rates than anyone thinks.
Liberty Posted December 18, 2014 Posted December 18, 2014 Apparently, making predictions is hard... Funnily enough I found Prem's slide on interest rates after the Wall St crash and in Japan today. Average trough for long term rates 2%, average time taken to get there after the panic, 14 years, average rates 20 years after the panic 2.5%! I know these are different times, but I do wonder whether we are in for a much longer period of low rates than anyone thinks. Maybe, maybe not. First thing that comes to mind though is that the US is pretty different from Japan on many levels.
petec Posted December 18, 2014 Posted December 18, 2014 Apparently, making predictions is hard... Funnily enough I found Prem's slide on interest rates after the Wall St crash and in Japan today. Average trough for long term rates 2%, average time taken to get there after the panic, 14 years, average rates 20 years after the panic 2.5%! I know these are different times, but I do wonder whether we are in for a much longer period of low rates than anyone thinks. Maybe, maybe not. First thing that comes to mind though is that the US is pretty different from Japan on many levels. Absolutely, and different from itself in 1930.
saltybit Posted December 28, 2014 Posted December 28, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/27/investing-fundflows-lipper-idUSL1N0UA0Y120141227 U.S.-based stock funds attract record $36.5 bln inflows in week -Lipper week of 12/24
frommi Posted December 30, 2014 Posted December 30, 2014 Foreign automakers taken to task in China over dealers' bloated inventories: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/uk-china-autos-idUKKBN0K80EI20141230 Not a good sign for the world economy in 2015.
randomep Posted December 30, 2014 Posted December 30, 2014 Foreign automakers taken to task in China over dealers' bloated inventories: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/uk-china-autos-idUKKBN0K80EI20141230 Not a good sign for the world economy in 2015. Well, definitely China is slowing down, beyond that I don't think this article adds much. The article says the car sales growth will be 7% instead of 14% last year, the dealers or manufacturers screwed up in their projections and should scale back inventory. but thanks for the article.....
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