A.M. Best Affirms Ratings of Fairfax...

[Viking]

I must say that I do enjoy reading these sorts of things (given the situation and the press the company was receiving a few short years ago).

- not sure if some where expecting an upgrade; given the current environment 'affirm' and 'stable' are not bad things

- I especially like the fact that FFH appears to be getting more press/respect regarding their returns on invested assets.

- interesting that the valuation of FFH (i.e. price to book value) has also come down over the years...

 

www.businesswire.com/portal/site/cnnmoney/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090622006076&newsLang=en&ndmConfigId=1000618&vnsId=33

[Crip1]

"The ratings of Crum & Forster reflect its role within Fairfax, its strong risk-adjusted capital levels, proven opportunistic underwriting strategy (particularly in underserved markets) and management’s commitment to reduce the group’s property catastrophe exposure to improve overall profitability. Significantly reduced legacy issues, including the commutation of most finite reinsurance contracts and the resolution in 2008 of its largest outstanding asbestos claim, also lends to the group’s profitability prospects going forward."

 

I do not recall hearing that the 2008 asbestos claim was Crum's largest. When was this previously indicated by FFH?

 

-Crip

[Viking]

Crip, I also was not aware that it was the largest outstanding. When you look at all the various activities FFH has taken the past 4 or 5 years (not just the investing but also what they did with extending their debt maturities when interest rates were low, for example) this team has done a number of amazing things. Makes me wonder what they will do in the coming year and years...

[Partner24]

Neither me Crip, but anyway it's good news.

 

Cheers!

[Crip1]

Viking / P24,

 

At least thqat puts me in good company.  ;D

 

And Viking, you are spot on with regards to what the team has done over the past several years. It is remarkable how different a release like this looks now compared to the early part of this decade.

 

-Steve

[watsa_is_a_randian_hero]

Whats going on with the stock?  This is starting to get ridiculous cheap.

[Partner24]

Whats going on with the stock?  This is starting to get ridiculous cheap.

 

Well, I don't know why it's going down, but anyway my brain, my will and my wallet clearly know what to do ;-)

[Guest kawikaho]

Whats going on with the stock?  This is starting to get ridiculous cheap.

 

Technical breakdown.  I noticed it a few weeks ago when FFH started appearing on my alerts below 250.  Also, there's been huge sell offs in the equity market.  I'm sure FFH's book value has to be adjusted since the last time everyone on here was looking at it.

[watsa_is_a_randian_hero]

Technical breakdown.  I noticed it a few weeks ago when FFH started appearing on my alerts below 250.  Also, there's been huge sell offs in the equity market.  I'm sure FFH's book value has to be adjusted since the last time everyone on here was looking at it.

 

I looked this morning - adjusted book is down from high of near 308 to 298.  not that bad.  A $10 drop in book only warrants a $30 selloff (270 to 240) if we're trading at 3x book.  We were only trading at 0.9x book, so we should have only be down $9.

[Uccmal]

It's one of those Mr. Market things. 

 

Funny that ORH is up and stable through this.  Obviously the pending hurricane season doesn't explain everything. 

 

I am already for 2x book though....

 

[Guest kawikaho]

Technical breakdown.  I noticed it a few weeks ago when FFH started appearing on my alerts below 250.  Also, there's been huge sell offs in the equity market.  I'm sure FFH's book value has to be adjusted since the last time everyone on here was looking at it.

 

I looked this morning - adjusted book is down from high of near 308 to 298.  not that bad.  A $10 drop in book only warrants a $30 selloff (270 to 240) if we're trading at 3x book.  We were only trading at 0.9x book, so we should have only be down $9.

 

Well, there you go: we went from 252 to 243.  Doesn't seem so irrational to me based on your analysis. 

[Uccmal]

As annoying as this stock price behaviour is I always have to keep it in context.  The drop from about 320 to 240 is 25%.  That I am highly leveraged to the fortunes of FFH's stock price is my problem and not the stock's.  Were I more diversified I would experience the exact same problems right now. 

 

If I only invested in common stocks, and not leaps the volatility would be much less, but the up side would be dramatically reduced as well.  So I just hang on for the ride. 

[FlyingArrow]

As annoying as this stock price behaviour is I always have to keep it in context.  The drop from about 320 to 240 is 25%.  That I am highly leveraged to the fortunes of FFH's stock price is my problem and not the stock's.  Were I more diversified I would experience the exact same problems right now.  

 

If I only invested in common stocks, and not leaps the volatility would be much less, but the up side would be dramatically reduced as well.  So I just hang on for the ride.  

 

We're in this ride together Al. I seem to be addicted to FFH like CRACK!!! I picked up a bunch more leaps over the last couple of days. Mostly 260's and 240's. Volatility is your friend with these leaps. And the option to buy FFH 18 months out at a total cost less than book seems quite attractive to me.

 

Were I more diversified I would experience the exact same problems right now. This is front and center in my mind all the time.

 

[Uccmal]

I hadn't thought of that Mark.

 

I actually bought 2011 Leaps today for 220 Notional plus 58.60 = 278.60  plus $8.25 in fees.  Book Value around 300 US.  Seems like some kind of deal I guess. 

 

It did occur to me a couple of months ago when I bought GE 7.50 leaps at about 3.50 and the stock was just above $11.00 that something was not quite right and in my favour.