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Jimmy Kimmel went to the street with an iPhone 4S saying it was 5- they loved it


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Guest valueInv

LOL, good find... but this could be clearly due to clever editing as well.. it's obvious that those who noticed no differences wouldn't have been included in that clip... then again, its a comedy show so it's expected

 

Yes, people find it perfectly fine to draw conclusions from it.

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Who are we kidding here?  Of course you can draw conclusions.  One guy specifically owned the last phone and he assumed there was some discernible difference.  Jobs was fantastic at creating hype...genius in fact, another PT Barnum...and he backed it up almost every time. That aura about Apple products does exist and permeates the consumer's consciousness as well as anything...including the taste of Coca-cola.  Cheers!

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The Oracle of Omaha has been quoted as saying that he only buys companies that he would be perfectly happy to own if they could not be traded for 5 to10 years. Companies that an idiot could manage companies that have insurmountable moats. Hence his investment in Coke and the rail roads. Can the same be said for AAPLE. It would also be interesting if someone back tested purchasing the largest cap company in the world and holding it for 5 years what the average return has been. I suspect that the returns have been lack lustre at best. How many companies have climbed to the very top of valuations and stayed there for a long period of time and were able to increase their relative valuation over time. While its interesting to discuss AAPLE and its prospects I am unsure as to any value creation that can occur from our discourse. The focus on AAPLE should really be when do I sell it if I own it.

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Guest valueInv

Who are we kidding here?  Of course you can draw conclusions.  One guy specifically owned the last phone and he assumed there was some discernible difference.  Jobs was fantastic at creating hype...genius in fact, another PT Barnum...and he backed it up almost every time. That aura about Apple products does exist and permeates the consumer's consciousness as well as anything...including the taste of Coca-cola.  Cheers!

So you would conclude that Americans believe that Obama is muslim from watching late night comedians? These clips are edited for comedic value, and not for accurate sampling. If you spend enough time in Hollywood Boulevard, you can find enough people who will say exactly what you want to say. Especially when the 4S looked exactly like the 4 and Apple hasn't put out a single ad on iPhone 5 yet.

 

Now, the hype question:

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/13/what-twitter-had-to-say-about-apples-iphone-5-event/

 

You think its hyped? Everyone is talking about how boring it is and how Apple is not innovating anymore. Yet, it is going to shatter all records.

 

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Guest valueInv

BTW, I've long heard the theory that Apple will lose its magic after Jobs.

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/14/iphone-5-pre-order-sells-out-20x-faster-than-4-and-4s-further-highlighting-apples-dominance/

 

Foxconn doubled its production capacity for Apple  this year. That means the pre-orders were probably selling at 40x this year despite Apple starting orders at 12:01 am. 

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Guest valueInv

The Oracle of Omaha has been quoted as saying that he only buys companies that he would be perfectly happy to own if they could not be traded for 5 to10 years. Companies that an idiot could manage companies that have insurmountable moats. Hence his investment in Coke and the rail roads. Can the same be said for AAPLE. It would also be interesting if someone back tested purchasing the largest cap company in the world and holding it for 5 years what the average return has been. I suspect that the returns have been lack lustre at best. How many companies have climbed to the very top of valuations and stayed there for a long period of time and were able to increase their relative valuation over time. While its interesting to discuss AAPLE and its prospects I am unsure as to any value creation that can occur from our discourse. The focus on AAPLE should really be when do I sell it if I own it.

 

Analyze the business, not the market cap.

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Who are we kidding here?  Of course you can draw conclusions.  One guy specifically owned the last phone and he assumed there was some discernible difference.  Jobs was fantastic at creating hype...genius in fact, another PT Barnum...and he backed it up almost every time. That aura about Apple products does exist and permeates the consumer's consciousness as well as anything...including the taste of Coca-cola.  Cheers!

So you would conclude that Americans believe that Obama is muslim from watching late night comedians? These clips are edited for comedic value, and not for accurate sampling. If you spend enough time in Hollywood Boulevard, you can find enough people who will say exactly what you want to say. Especially when the 4S looked exactly like the 4 and Apple hasn't put out a single ad on iPhone 5 yet.

 

Now, the hype question:

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/13/what-twitter-had-to-say-about-apples-iphone-5-event/

 

You think its hyped? Everyone is talking about how boring it is and how Apple is not innovating anymore. Yet, it is going to shatter all records.

 

I hate to break it to you but you have a strong innate bias for apple.  You perhaps don't even realize it. 

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It would also be interesting if someone back tested purchasing the largest cap company in the world and holding it for 5 years what the average return has been. I suspect that the returns have been lack lustre at best.

 

Some one looked at the top 10 in the S&P500 over many decades and the mega caps did not fare well.  -2-3 percentage points per year on average IIRC.  I think it was in the FAJ a few years back.

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Guest valueInv

Who are we kidding here?  Of course you can draw conclusions.  One guy specifically owned the last phone and he assumed there was some discernible difference.  Jobs was fantastic at creating hype...genius in fact, another PT Barnum...and he backed it up almost every time. That aura about Apple products does exist and permeates the consumer's consciousness as well as anything...including the taste of Coca-cola.  Cheers!

So you would conclude that Americans believe that Obama is muslim from watching late night comedians? These clips are edited for comedic value, and not for accurate sampling. If you spend enough time in Hollywood Boulevard, you can find enough people who will say exactly what you want to say. Especially when the 4S looked exactly like the 4 and Apple hasn't put out a single ad on iPhone 5 yet.

 

Now, the hype question:

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/13/what-twitter-had-to-say-about-apples-iphone-5-event/

 

You think its hyped? Everyone is talking about how boring it is and how Apple is not innovating anymore. Yet, it is going to shatter all records.

 

I hate to break it to you but you have a strong innate bias for apple.  You perhaps don't even realize it.

 

I agree wholeheartedly! I also have a strong innate bias for Buffet and Radiohead.

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The Oracle of Omaha has been quoted as saying that he only buys companies that he would be perfectly happy to own if they could not be traded for 5 to10 years. Companies that an idiot could manage companies that have insurmountable moats. Hence his investment in Coke and the rail roads. Can the same be said for AAPLE. It would also be interesting if someone back tested purchasing the largest cap company in the world and holding it for 5 years what the average return has been. I suspect that the returns have been lack lustre at best. How many companies have climbed to the very top of valuations and stayed there for a long period of time and were able to increase their relative valuation over time. While its interesting to discuss AAPLE and its prospects I am unsure as to any value creation that can occur from our discourse. The focus on AAPLE should really be when do I sell it if I own it.

 

I won't argue that their business in 5 years is easier to predict than a company like coke, and I assume you're right about back testing the largest cap companies for 5 years. I try to look 1-3 years out with tech companies, and I think Apple will still be strong in that period. It would be one thing if we were talking about a company with the largest market cap trading at something like 100x earnings, but Apple is trading at 13x estimated 2013 earnings, and is sitting on a mountain of cash. I think it is somewhat fair to be priced at the current multiple, as earnings can of course drop pretty quickly, but I also think the company still has a decent amount of room to grow (especially in countries like China). The fact that most people upgrade their phones every 2 years bodes very well for them. The iPad is also still just getting started.

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