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Is Facebook too big to survive?


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Interesting view... but I'm not so sure the others (myspace, friendster, etc) failed because they became too big.  If anything they didn't get enough of a network effect the point where they p enough people who were still not on social media to go onto the new thing cool thing (myspace to facebook).  I guess friendster to an extent was "too big" but not in terms of network effect but because they grew too fast and their infrastructure didn't keep up making people spend 20 min just trying to login to their profile.

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Interesting article oldye. 


My theory on facebook is that it is a fad.  I grew up with the advent of computers, initially programming them with pencil cards, through the advent of commercial email and the internet. 


One thing I recall vividly is when everyone started getting personal Email.  People used to send jokes around via email.  Everyone and their cousin was doing it.  The amount of non-spam useless emails I would get was mind boggling.  This passed and many of these people hardly use email any longer. 


The same thing happened with sending photos by email.  For awhile I was privy to everyones bloody vacation pictures.  This too has passed, thank god. 


Now each of these utilities still has its uses, but in a much more practical sense. 


FB will head the same way.  Many who signed up wont bother with it after awhile.  There are those like me who just take a pass because it is a nearly useless medium to me.  Then there will be a couple of hundred million hard core users. 


If I were to invest in FB I would want to see them take the cash they have and move toward a more sustainable business model.  IMHO, they need to monetize their business quickly, and move into something else or they will actually cease to exist.


Other things have more utilitarian value such as texting and other instant messaging, google, and some version of smart phones. 


Google has continuously reinvented themselves. 


Another negative with FB which will hit this generation of users is when they try to operate in the real world and realize that they have posted all their idiocies online.  An employer asks to be friended and decides not to hire you because you brag about how drunk you were on Friday night.


I feel similarly about Linked-in.  I get an invite to join when LI coopts someones Email list about every two months.  For professional networking LI has to be about the most useless thing I can think of.  Maybe I am wrong but I think the old fashioned way of networking is still best for looking for business or finding a job. 


One mans's opinion on social media.


Now, I have frequented Backpacking Light and bought products based on the reviews of the participants on that forum.  And I have found stock ideas based on this message board, and learn a great deal from the members here.  I use the internet at large nearly continually.  I was in Fresno recently, and had to get a charge for my ipad in a Wendys because I couldn't remember the hotel I had reserved through expedia.  FB, Linked in - I just dont get.





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I think linkedIn is a different beast from FB.  Facebook has admitted in their prospectus what their purpose is, and the fact that they are a public company is secondary and a vehicle for them to accomplish their 'connection of people' of whatever their stated purpose is.  LinkedIn on the other hand is a networking tool for professionals.  They know a lot about you and in particular your professional profile.  If I remember correctly they are starting to sell mined data and advertising to very targeted groups, professional groups.  They are also linking groups in actually useful forums related to specific technologies etc.  I haven't done a valuation at all, but their money making model looks a lot more promising at first blush.  The fact that Theil sold his FB shares, but I think he continues to hold his LinkedIn shares says a lot.

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