El Nino

[Uccmal]

An El Nino appears to be in active formation over the Equatorial Pacific.  An El Nino usually leads to fewer Western Atlantic Hurricanes and more Eastern Pacific Hurricanes.  Something to do with alterations in the wind conditions. 

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/8553182

 

 

[Mungerville]

Ucc,

 

Is that good or bad for ORH?

[FlyingArrow]

Ucc,

 

Is that good or bad for ORH?

 

I have to believe that would be very good for ORH/FFH. There is not much developed infrastructure at risk from hurricanes in the eastern pacific to insure or re-insure.

 

By comparison there aren't many places in the world with as much developed infrastructure at risk from western Atlantic storms - i.e. eastern seaboard, Florida, and the Gulf.

[ERICOPOLY]

El Nino is said to be responsible for the light year in 2006.  There were Atlantic hurricanes, they just didn't make landfall (wind shear weakening them before landfall, or blowing them off course).

 

[StubbleJumper]

As we have discussed before, FFH and BRK might be better off if 2009 had a KRW type of hurricane year, or at least a four horsemen type of year.  The industry is already on wobbly legs due to a large chunk of capital having been vaporized over the past 9 months, and losing another large chunk from a bad storm season might hasten the oncoming hard market.

 

SJ

[JEast]

Not so fast. Though I would love to have an El Nino both for investment purposes but also because of the good ski conditions :)

 

"All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

If memory serves me well, a really good El Nino year would need temperatures in the +1.5C to +2.5C area, not the current +0.4C.

 

 

Cheers

JEast

(formally 653211)

[ragnarisapirate]

does anyone have a chart/graph for what has happened in the past, to insurance co's stock prices during an el nino?

 

not that one should make an investment thesis on it, but, it would be interesting to compare now to the past, and see if recent problems have outweigh previous year's movements in regard to the coming weather.

[Uccmal]

JEast, This is the abstract from your link:

 

Synopsis:  Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

 

Anyways, El Ninos are like bear markets.  You never known with certainty until they are in place. 

 

Part 2: ragnar:  No - but if you look at the FFH-TO chart the stock price has reached its low about now, and persists at this level until mid August- early Sept. regardless of the Hurricane outcome - since 2006. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[smw397]

Ucc,

 

Is that good or bad for ORH?

 

It's most likely good overall for California.  After several years of severe drought, the heavy rains likely to follow El Nino might finally replenish the reservoirs and, to some extent, the aquifers.  All of which will hopefully mean a less disastrous fire season than the last few.

 

And it definitely means more and better surf!

[Uccmal]

Hurricane season going to be lighter than normal?

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

Sure looking that way so far....

[StubbleJumper]

IMO, it's much too early to make any conclusions about the severity of this hurricane season.  In a "normal" year we would have only seen one tropical storm by July 10th, with a second tropical storm typically appearing by August 6th.  So far, this year's storm activity strikes me as "roughly normal," but we'll probably have a much better idea of how it'll go in 6-7 weeks.

 

The NOAA has a nice little chart here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

 

SJ

 

[Smazz]

Remember guys and gals,

even AFTER the Hurricanes has swept through in those bad years - damage was looked at and excellent mgt such as we have here STILL was way off on the amt of damage (go back and look at the press releases).

So, its all in the gods hands as far as Im concerned. Too many variables. If you are in it for the long haul - hope that those at the switch did the due diligence. If you are not, get out and take a better stab at it once the Hurricane mania sets in.

[JEast]

Its official, "El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10". Its still a little on the weak side based on the forecasts, so we shall see.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

 

Maybe this is the news for the somewhat recent rebound in FFH ??

 

 

Cheers

JEast

[Uccmal]

An update... Odds of major Hurricanes seem to be decreasing with each day:

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html

 

[Guest Broxburnboy]

Based on record high water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, one observer predicts the potential for a major hurricane in the Gulf this season:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cs-says-%E2%80%9Cstorm-risk-reduced%E2%80%9D-buoy-42011-says-%E2%80%9Cwatch-out%E2%80%9D

 

 

 

[Guest Broxburnboy]

Given that the foreclosure rates and the loss of home equity in the Fort Meyers/Jupiter region in Florida is amongst the highest in the US and this area is often near the landfall of tropical storms, would a major hurricane landing in the region

be a godsend for the housing market and an invitation for fraudulent claims?  Would the potential severity for insurers be heightened?

[Smazz]

An update... Odds of major Hurricanes seem to be decreasing with each day:

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html

 

 

Ive got to get a job like that.

 

Wait for a period of time with less activity and then change your forecast...lol..

 

Anyway, the current multiple for ORH doesnt make sence again. Not complaining since I added some the other day but even on a comparison basis makes no sence... again.

We can bake in $350 in pretax loss and still be at book.

I cant help myself....again...

[JEast]

CAT II heads for Taiwan.

 

The bureau said the storm was expected to make landfall in eastern Taiwan Friday evening assuming it maintains its present course. It is expected to pass directly through the densely populated north, including the capital of Taipei.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

 

 

Cheers

JEast

[ERICOPOLY]

Anyway, the current multiple for ORH doesnt make sence again. Not complaining since I added some the other day but even on a comparison basis makes no sence... again.

We can bake in $350 in pretax loss and still be at book.

I cant help myself....again...

 

FFH and ORH have, in past couple of years, provided an opportunity to buy after the market (and their gains) have already gone up.  It's like a sci-fi movie where you read the morning financial papers and you have a time machine to go back a few weeks and invest after you already know the outcome.

 

 

[Smazz]

yes Eric - i also meant FFH.

 

The good thing is some of us now realize the market DOES NOT know something we dont know.

[Crip1]

OK, now I do not wish to impugn the integrity, knowledge, etc, of the good folks at  NOAA, as I am sure that they have spent hours and hours carefully analyzing copious amounts of data using highly sophisticated models to arrive at the prediction that this will be a lighter hurricane year. But, really, since the Hurricane season is more than 1/3rd over and we have seen minimal activity, could we novices have not already come to the same conclusion?

 

-Crip

 

[Smazz]

OK, now I do not wish to impugn the integrity, knowledge, etc, of the good folks at  NOAA, as I am sure that they have spent hours and hours carefully analyzing copious amounts of data using highly sophisticated models to arrive at the prediction that this will be a lighter hurricane year. But, really, since the Hurricane season is more than 1/3rd over and we have seen minimal activity, could we novices have not already come to the same conclusion?

 

-Crip

 

 

Maybe they were just waiting till their orders filled on ORH before making it "official"?

[StubbleJumper]

OK, now I do not wish to impugn the integrity, knowledge, etc, of the good folks at  NOAA, as I am sure that they have spent hours and hours carefully analyzing copious amounts of data using highly sophisticated models to arrive at the prediction that this will be a lighter hurricane year. But, really, since the Hurricane season is more than 1/3rd over and we have seen minimal activity, could we novices have not already come to the same conclusion?

 

-Crip

 

 

 

No!  Hurricane season is NOT more than one-third over.  If you look at the climatology link that I posted earlier in this thread, you will see that on average there are 10 named storms per year of which 2 typically appear by August 6th.  On that basis, given that we are just past August 6th, we have simply dodged 2 bullets, with another 8 typically appearing in an average year.  Further, the severe storms that actually become hurricanes normally come later in the season, with the first normally appearing around August 14...or next Thursday.

 

I will reiterate again, it is too early to make any definitive statement about this year's tropical weather.  In another 4-5 weeks, perhaps we will be able to make some meaningful inferences based on year-to-date.

 

Reposting the climatology link:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

 

SJ

[ERICOPOLY]

First named Atlantic storm today:  Ana.

[Phoenix01]

The second just appeared and is named:  Bill