Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada

[Liberty]

Pure madness...

[augustabound]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush.  >:(

 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

 

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.

They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

 

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

 

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

[Liberty]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush.  >:(

 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

 

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.

They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

 

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

 

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

 

I think the coming interest rate hikes, which are now clearer than ever, are pulling demand forward, among other factors.

[wisdom]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

 

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

[Liberty]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

 

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

 

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

 

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

[gary17]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

 

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

 

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

 

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

 

i can't wait for that to happen... US - CAD  0.5 !!

[Liberty]

I don't think interest rates are going anywhere with what is happening in Alberta. If job losses continue how can BoC raise rates. I would expect loans to start going bad later this year or early next year - the jobs in the oil fields pay a lot more than jobs elsewhere.

 

I would not be surprised if we go lower rather than higher.

 

Canada could delay, but it won't have a choice but to follow the US sooner rather than later (as always). Otherwise that'll kill the loonie, and even if the BoC doesn't raise rates immediately, the bond market could anticipate it, affecting mortgages.

 

Personally, I'd love it if the BoC went the opposite direction from the Fed and the CAD went down to 0.50 or something, because most of my assets are in USD and my costs in CAD, but I doubt that'll happen.

 

i can't wait for that to happen... US - CAD  0.5 !!

 

I just drooled a little  :P

[Otsog]

Can the BoC raise rates?

 

I bet the BoC/CMHC/Feds are in a constant panic. There must be regular internal reports like "if interest rates go up 1%, 2 million Canadians will lose their homes".

[alertmeipp]

We're in Bradford, Ontario which is 45 minutes North of Toronto..................2.5 hours during evening rush.  >:(

 

We're in a newer (4 year old) home. A few homes were up for sale last summer and into fall and sat on the market with little interest. These same homes went back on the market in the spring and all 4 have sold for more than the previous list price and within a week.

 

Our next door neighbour listed last spring for $549 and had little interest and a couple of "low" offers.

They listed again and sold the morning the listing hit the market. (obviously his listing agent already had a buyer lined up). He sold for $629 and had multiple offers. One was significantly higher but came with a phone book of conditions, so they knew to pass to save lots of frustration.

 

Another house friends lived in and sold 2 years ago for $469 recently sold for $619. This is the same model of home we're in and the new model from the builder is listed for $505.

 

The market is hot everywhere apparently.

 

 

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

 

[alertmeipp]

Can the BoC raise rates?

 

I bet the BoC/CMHC/Feds are in a constant panic. There must be regular internal reports like "if interest rates go up 1%, 2 million Canadians will lose their homes".

 

 

Yes, it will be ugly. Many of the high end homes were purchased by the riches.. so those might be ok.

 

But many of the smaller houses are owned by normal families with big mortgages.

 

But I am in the camp that BoC won't raise rate even if US does. They just can't.

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

Yes, it will be ugly. Many of the high end homes were purchased by the riches.. so those might be ok.

 

But many of the smaller houses are owned by normal families with big mortgages.

 

But I am in the camp that BoC won't raise rate even if US does. They just can't.

 

You mean ever?

 

Money will just stay free forever and that's the solution. Case closed. Is that something you want to bet on?

 

Maybe houses will also keep appreciating at multiples of wage growth for a decade or two also, the difference can just be made up of even more debt...

 

Where do you see the CAD vs the USD in 2-3 years if the Fed methodically raises during that time?

[augustabound]

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.

Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

 

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.

Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

 

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.

The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.

Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

 

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.

Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

 

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

 

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D

They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.

I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

[alertmeipp]

Yes, it will be ugly. Many of the high end homes were purchased by the riches.. so those might be ok.

 

But many of the smaller houses are owned by normal families with big mortgages.

 

But I am in the camp that BoC won't raise rate even if US does. They just can't.

 

You mean ever?

 

Money will just stay free forever and that's the solution. Case closed. Is that something you want to bet on?

 

Maybe houses will also keep appreciating at multiples of wage growth for a decade or two also, the difference can just be made up of even more debt...

 

Where do you see the CAD vs the USD in 2-3 years if the Fed methodically raises during that time?

 

For sure, not forever. :)

CDN can go all the way to 60 cents. And the houses will look even cheaper for the foreigners.

 

Canada gov really in a difficult position, they really can't do much, burst it and we will lots of job losses. The real estate industry probably hire tons of ppl directly and indirectly....

 

[SharperDingaan]

You might want to revisit your ‘investment’ analysis

 

ASSUME that BOTH house buyer and professional landlord are WISE speculators.

Both would be using a HELOC to finance the purchase, and paying only interest. Both would have the minimum down payment, and the maximum CMHC mortgage insurance. Both will immediately walk away if a net loss on sale exceeded their down payment; it is why they bought the CMHC insurance. And, as both have an asymmetric pay-off structure, both will seek the most volatile housing markets possible; Vancouver and Toronto.

 

The professional landlord charges rent to earn a profit; either monthly revenue > costs, or net sales proceed less purchase cost > intervening net cumulative loss. Strategies of charge profitably on ‘normal property’ and hold forever; or undercharge monthly and trade ‘bubble property’ frequently. If the professional lives > 6 months in the bubble property, he/she gets to promote it every day (assessing timing), liquidity advantages, cheap rent, and a tax break when the property is resold. Standard handbook stuff.

 

Are YOU doing what that professional does? If you are not; it would be cheaper to buy versus rent the property from him - and keep the profit.

 

Most folk have a much lower risk tolerance than a speculator.

If you insist on paying P+I every month; YES it will be more expensive to buy versus rent – but that extra cost of P, is SAVINGS growing in your property and not cash growing in the LANDLORDS pocket.

 

Folk get uncomfortable when the average housing market risk tolerance, in their area, is > their own risk tolerance. The solution is a simple sale and move to some other area that puts you back into your comfort zone. Disrupt your mental and financial health, or temporarily disrupt your family life. I don’t want to hear it, is not an option.

 

Your choice.

 

SD

 

[alertmeipp]

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.

Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

 

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.

Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

 

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.

The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.

Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

 

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.

Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

 

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

 

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D

They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.

I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

 

Interesting, thanks. I heard a new site near Aurora had 100s of ppl lining up. :) And some buy more than 1.

[wisdom]

Liberty while it will not be ever, it could be a while before rates go up.

 

Think about this -

1) unless commodities bounce back - just had a 15 year run

2) housing continues booming - has been booming for 15 years

3) manufacturing comes back - it will take time before manufcturing starts coming back.

 

Where do blue collared workers who lose jobs in the resource field get jobs that pay as much.

 

At the sametime, we have the highest debt loads in recorded history. The only way they can counter it is by having the loonie at a low level v USD. Beggar thy neighbor.

 

At this point I don't know how to think about it because if the loonie drops too much that could lead to inflation and thus, higher interest rates.

 

The authorities have chosen to be risk averse and take the easier route in the last 20 odd years, so I expect them to choose lower rates rather than have the population deal with the pain of defaults and higher interest rates.

 

While I say this, I realize these things are impossible to predict.

 

EDIT:

I was reading an article about those big yellow trucks at mining sites. The drivers are paid $200,000 a year. And a lot of companies are in the process of buying self driving trucks over the next 5 odd years. No one is going to pay a truck driver $200,000 anywhere else.

[alertmeipp]

You might want to revisit your ‘investment’ analysis

 

ASSUME that BOTH house buyer and professional landlord are WISE speculators.

Both would be using a HELOC to finance the purchase, and paying only interest. Both would have the minimum down payment, and the maximum CMHC mortgage insurance. Both will immediately walk away if a net loss on sale exceeded their down payment; it is why they bought the CMHC insurance. And, as both have an asymmetric pay-off structure, both will seek the most volatile housing markets possible; Vancouver and Toronto.

 

The professional landlord charges rent to earn a profit; either monthly revenue > costs, or net sales proceed less purchase cost > intervening net cumulative loss. Strategies of charge profitably on ‘normal property’ and hold forever; or undercharge monthly and trade ‘bubble property’ frequently. If the professional lives > 6 months in the bubble property, he/she gets to promote it every day (assessing timing), liquidity advantages, cheap rent, and a tax break when the property is resold. Standard handbook stuff.

 

Are YOU doing what that professional does? If you are not; it would be cheaper to buy versus rent the property from him - and keep the profit.

 

Most folk have a much lower risk tolerance than a speculator.

If you insist on paying P+I every month; YES it will be more expensive to buy versus rent – but that extra cost of P, is SAVINGS growing in your property and not cash growing in the LANDLORDS pocket.

 

Folk get uncomfortable when the average housing market risk tolerance, in their area, is > their own risk tolerance. The solution is a simple sale and move to some other area that puts you back into your comfort zone. Disrupt your mental and financial health, or temporarily disrupt your family life. I don’t want to hear it, is not an option.

 

Your choice.

 

SD

 

The strategy works when things keep going up.

It's a confidence game. Once ppl realize house prices can drop. Unsold houses will jump. Speculators stuck with houses and they can't afford P+I or just I.

 

Will be ugly.

[Yours Truly]

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.

Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

 

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.

Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

 

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.

The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.

Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

 

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.

Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

 

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

 

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D

They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.

I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

 

I know a handful of acquitances that have bought in Bradford with the sole intention of buying pre-construction, adding cosmetic touches only to flip it a few months to a year later.  They think it's guaranteed money with zero risk and so far they've been spot on.

[alertmeipp]

Liberty while it will not be ever, it could be a while before rates go up.

 

Think about this -

1) unless commodities bounce back - just had a 15 year run

2) housing continues booming - has been booming for 15 years

3) manufacturing comes back - it will take tiem before manufcturing starts coming back.

 

Where do blue collared workers who lose jobs in the resource field get jobs that pay as much.

 

At the sametime, we have the highest debt loads in recorded history. The only way they can counter it is by having the loonie at a low level v USD. Beggar thy neighbor.

 

At this point I don't know how to think about it because if the loonie drops too much that could lead to inflation and thus, higher interest rates.

 

The authorities have chosen to be risk averse and take the easier route in the last 20 odd years, so I expect them to choose lower rates rather than have the population deal with the pain of defaults and higher interest rates.

 

While I say this, I realize these things are impossible to predict.

 

Yes, if you believe CDN will go lower, buying FTP is the way to go.  ;D

The exchange rate saved them lots of headache.

We should open another thread to talk about idea that will benefit from lower CDN.

[enoch01]

You might want to revisit your ‘investment’ analysis

 

ASSUME that BOTH house buyer and professional landlord are WISE speculators.

Both would be using a HELOC to finance the purchase, and paying only interest. Both would have the minimum down payment, and the maximum CMHC mortgage insurance. Both will immediately walk away if a net loss on sale exceeded their down payment; it is why they bought the CMHC insurance. And, as both have an asymmetric pay-off structure, both will seek the most volatile housing markets possible; Vancouver and Toronto.

 

The professional landlord charges rent to earn a profit; either monthly revenue > costs, or net sales proceed less purchase cost > intervening net cumulative loss. Strategies of charge profitably on ‘normal property’ and hold forever; or undercharge monthly and trade ‘bubble property’ frequently. If the professional lives > 6 months in the bubble property, he/she gets to promote it every day (assessing timing), liquidity advantages, cheap rent, and a tax break when the property is resold. Standard handbook stuff.

 

Are YOU doing what that professional does? If you are not; it would be cheaper to buy versus rent the property from him - and keep the profit.

 

Most folk have a much lower risk tolerance than a speculator.

If you insist on paying P+I every month; YES it will be more expensive to buy versus rent – but that extra cost of P, is SAVINGS growing in your property and not cash growing in the LANDLORDS pocket.

 

Folk get uncomfortable when the average housing market risk tolerance, in their area, is > their own risk tolerance. The solution is a simple sale and move to some other area that puts you back into your comfort zone. Disrupt your mental and financial health, or temporarily disrupt your family life. I don’t want to hear it, is not an option.

 

Your choice.

 

SD

 

I'm glad I don't have to get into the game of trying to justify low single digit rental yields because I'm too dumb to understand what any of the above means.

[alertmeipp]

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.

Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

 

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.

Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

 

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.

The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.

Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

 

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.

Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

 

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

 

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D

They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.

I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

 

I know a handful of acquitances that have bought in Bradford with the sole intention of buying pre-construction, adding cosmetic touches only to flip it a few months to a year later.  They think it's guaranteed money with zero risk and so far they've been spot on.

 

Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

 

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

 

 

[Yours Truly]

Wow, I didn't really the madness goes all the way up there. Any idea who are those buyers (local or from oversea)?

We're the next best option for those moving out of the city. When the developer opened about 7 years ago, most were from Woodbridge, Mississauga, Richmond Hill and Newmarket.

Five minutes to the 400, 20 minutes to Barrie, 10 minutes to Newmarket and we have a GO station.

 

I'm not sure the demographics of the resale buyers. So far the house across the street was bought by an Asian couple with no kids. They look to be our age (late 30's), both drive Mercedes and they spent a month renovating before they moved in. They renovated a new house, yes.

Same with our friends house up the street, same scenario but his family has young kids.

 

The demographic for Bradford was predominantly white with a fairly large Portuguese population and Italian when the new homes started.

The last couple of years Bradford looks more like a typical GTA town, more diverse.

Those that are leaving Bradford from our neighbourhood seem to be cashing in and moving further North. Innisfil, Barrie etc.

 

We bought in 2011 for $349 and as of last January when new phases were released, our model is up to $505. Our next door neighbour who just sold for $629 paid $369 in 2011.

Yes, in Bradford, Ontario.  :o

 

In a town that had 18000 before the developers showed up will have added something like 3000 homes in 8 years. Our developer is closing in 3 years and will have built 1200 homes in 10 years.

 

Edited to actually answer your question  ;D

They all seem like they've just moved from elsewhere in the GTA. Some neighbours I spoke to that moved from Woodbridge etc have done this before. Buy a new home before the ground has broken, live there a couple of years rinse, repeat a bit further North.

I'm pretty sure the diversity in our town now is just people moving from the GTA rather than completely new Canadians or investors.

 

I know a handful of acquitances that have bought in Bradford with the sole intention of buying pre-construction, adding cosmetic touches only to flip it a few months to a year later.  They think it's guaranteed money with zero risk and so far they've been spot on.

 

Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

 

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

 

LOL, why buy stocks when you are almost guaranteed large returns on a pre-construction homes? all you need to do is line-up on the first day when the sales office opens!!

[wisdom]

In Vancouver the reason is because it has been in the top 3 places to live in the world according to one survey. Thus, everyone here believes that you do not need to be able to afford the mortgage, all that matters is that everyone around the world will move here and pay any price. You do not need jobs, just be rated the best place to live.

 

Meanwhile, this Ipsos Reid survey was released yesterday. 40% of people living in Vancouver want to leave - most common reason - high cost of living.

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouverites+feel+priced+town/11146479/story.html

 

[Liberty]

Liberty while it will not be ever, it could be a while before rates go up.

 

Think about this -

1) unless commodities bounce back - just had a 15 year run

2) housing continues booming - has been booming for 15 years

3) manufacturing comes back - it will take time before manufcturing starts coming back.

 

Where do blue collared workers who lose jobs in the resource field get jobs that pay as much.

 

At the sametime, we have the highest debt loads in recorded history. The only way they can counter it is by having the loonie at a low level v USD. Beggar thy neighbor.

 

At this point I don't know how to think about it because if the loonie drops too much that could lead to inflation and thus, higher interest rates.

 

The authorities have chosen to be risk averse and take the easier route in the last 20 odd years, so I expect them to choose lower rates rather than have the population deal with the pain of defaults and higher interest rates.

 

While I say this, I realize these things are impossible to predict.

 

EDIT:

I was reading an article about those big yellow trucks at mining sites. The drivers are paid $200,000 a year. And a lot of companies are in the process of buying self driving trucks over the next 5 odd years. No one is going to pay a truck driver $200,000 anywhere else.

 

But the CAD has already fallen 20-25% from its recent plateau, and even more from its recent peak. At a certain point, imports just cost too much, and we're importing a lot of stuff, while many of our exports are priced in USD anyway (oil, metals, etc). If the fed increases rates 2-3 times and the BoC keeps them where they are each time, the CAD will get slaughtered.

 

I'm no expert on this stuff, but the way I think about it, there's a range within which the CAD is fairly neutral on housing. It's basically kicking the can down the road, not solving anyone's problems but not making them worse. And then out of this range higher or lower, it's bad for housing.

 

If the CAD goes back up too high, this hurts manufacturing and means fewer foreign investments into natural resources and such, which is bad for housing when people lose their jobs and big projects don't get built.

 

If the CAD goes too low, then imports start costing a lot, the cost of what people buy in stores goes up, and that hurts housing directly since people have so little money to spare thanks to their bloated housing costs, they're already tapped out. In other words, if the CAD goes to 0.50 USD, suddenly everybody's food, vehicles and gasoline, electronics, consumer products, etc goes up a lot, and that'll squeeze a lot of people out of their houses that are already twice as expensive as the equivalent US house...

[augustabound]

Same here. More than a few actually, more than pocket money. Some of those are retired ppl with deep pocket, some are working class ppl.

 

I am sure when I get in, it will burst.

 

LOL, why buy stocks when you are almost guaranteed large returns on a pre-construction homes? all you need to do is line-up on the first day when the sales office opens!!

 

The Aurora sites all start in the $700k, there's 3 new ones.

 

I knew of the people buying pre-construction but these people buying 3-4 year old homes are putting $10's of thousands and one home had about $100k put in after the people bought.

 

We're looking to go back to Newmarket in the old downtown area. Century homes with lots of tree lined streets and people take care of their property. We miss it, a lot.

We're tempted to list our place since all the homes here are selling for prices we thing are insane and selling quickly. 

 

But right now, we're just not ready.