Jump to content

Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Taleb


Recommended Posts

[amazonsearch]Fooled By Randomness[/amazonsearch]


Very good ‘heretic’ read for those statistically & market minded.


To get the most out of it, expect to re-read each chapter & map out what you are being told - as it is not intuitive. Then expect it to completely changes your view of markets.


Snippets from Chapter 2:


You will probably not do very well if you ...

- Don’t recognize that history is written by the winners, not the losers. If you’re a despot but invade someone & win, you’re a hero. You’re still a despot - but no one will hold it against you!

- Don’t recognize that the idiot who can present well - comes off as the expert. The alchemy of the CNN talking head!

- Don’t recognize the Risk Management is done to give the impression of Risk Management – not actually do it.

- Don’t recognize that you should insure against the abstract risk, not the vivid one. The vivid risk is already priced in - the abstract is not, & the reason why HW can occasionally make 2B on CDS swaps!




Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...

I just got around to this book and found it amazing.


On the other hand, it was pretty much exactly what I was thinking when I posted my essay on risk (though I'm not sure anyone bothered with that)--apparently was recreating the wheel, though mine perhaps was a bit lumpy in comparison.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Create New...