onyx1 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Fox reporting Steve Jobs is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Ohhh no! That's awful. What a loss to the world! Oh, my God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Feel pretty shitty that I was posting about why you shouldn't buy Apple during that moment. :( He will be missed. A legend. Ben Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 My heart in on the floor. Steve, you changed the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yudeng2004 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Another under-appreciated quality of Jobs is that he is a total control freak. Sometimes it takes that to achieve a vision. Lots of other people have great taste, but they compromise, settle, there's a bit of design-by-committee going on, they give up when the going gets rough, they don't dare tell others that their ideas suck, etc.. Jobs has both the great taste AND the ability to bulldoze ahead until he realizes his vision. I want to hang this on my wall. This is THE key to doing things successfully if you have vision. But there is another under appreciated aspect of this - that some cultures tolerate this behavior more than others. I have ran teams both in China and US, and believe it or not, I have an EASIER time to tell others that their ideas suck in the US. In China, I can just feel in the air that people there RESENT the fact that you could have more insight/is smarter/more talented. I call it "psychological communism". If you think about it, after so many centuries of political suppression in China, they developed this psychology "it's not that anyone is smarter than anyone else, it's just some have higher socioeconomic status because of their political status". Which is TRUE in China even today. But the problem is that they also believe in the reverse "If everyone has the same political status, then everyone will have the same socioeconomic status" which is NOT TRUE. It is still more effective to use political authority in China than to use intellectual/spiritual authority. The psychological shackles and cultural burdens there still exist. In US I would say "I get to decide this cuz I know more than you" because this is an easier sell. In China I would say "I get to decide this cuz am the boss" because this is an easier sell. This is why China won't be able to create an Apple like company for a long long time, geniuses simply have no place there, and even if you are a genius, you would spend most of your time trying to fight for political positions as opposed to trying to create great products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namecsw Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 FWIW, I've been following Apple for a few years. (My basis is single digits). Two observations: First, Dr. Deming used to say that "every process is perfectly designed to produce what it produces." It's a tautology, but it's interesting. Apple's culture has produced one amazing product after another. Together, they form an ecosystem unlike anything we've ever seen. I can't, for the life of me, see why the ecosystem dies when Steve is out of the picture. I'm not saying the ecosystem will last forever, just that it will last for a few more doubles....and that introduces my second point. WRT Pepsi: change the argument to Coke, and consider this. Coke may be the most predictable business in the world. Over the next 20 years, units will double twice. If Coke is lucky, margins will also improve, and give investors a third double, all other things being equal. When Warren says he can see 20 years into the future with Coke, he's saying, in effect, that he can see three doubles into the future with the company. I "think" you can see three doubles into the future with AAPL; that you can see three doubles in Macs, Phones, Tablets, stores, etc. Of course, you may thing I'm all wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Apple will not be the same. Jobs has without question built a solid organization, but he is absolutely the heart and soul of that very organization. Without him the essence of the company will change. Apple will remain powerful and innovative for some time, but Jobs' influence and demand for perfection will disappear. Cook and other employees will work to preserve the culture, but they will fail. Even if they preserve 90% of it, they will fail. Current and new employees will get lazy. They won't demand the perfection Jobs would demand and the level of innovation and overall quality of the Apple experience will deteriorate. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 FWIW, I've been following Apple for a few years. (My basis is single digits). Two observations: First, Dr. Deming used to say that "every process is perfectly designed to produce what it produces." It's a tautology, but it's interesting. Apple's culture has produced one amazing product after another. Together, they form an ecosystem unlike anything we've ever seen. I can't, for the life of me, see why the ecosystem dies when Steve is out of the picture. I'm not saying the ecosystem will last forever, just that it will last for a few more doubles....and that introduces my second point. WRT Pepsi: change the argument to Coke, and consider this. Coke may be the most predictable business in the world. Over the next 20 years, units will double twice. If Coke is lucky, margins will also improve, and give investors a third double, all other things being equal. When Warren says he can see 20 years into the future with Coke, he's saying, in effect, that he can see three doubles into the future with the company. I "think" you can see three doubles into the future with AAPL; that you can see three doubles in Macs, Phones, Tablets, stores, etc. Of course, you may thing I'm all wet. namecsw, you have only posted 4 times and each post has been fantastic. Please keep it up, I enjoy your insights very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Apple is priced to perfection. You realize if you strip out its cash, Apple is trading for only around 8x next years expected earnings (as well as trading for under 5X cash), right? When has a multiple of cash been a useful valuation metric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Here's an insightful comment that I saw somewhere else, and it said what I tried to say better than I could: What Apple is going to be missing without Steve Jobs isn't creative talent or even someone capable of saying 'no.' It's going to be missing someone who has the absolute credibility to say it. Anyone can be a tyrant. If Steve Jobs was a dictator, it was because people thought he had the right to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Apple University hired Yale's School of Business Dean to put together a way to teach Jobs decision making as case studies. Siri is a protean first step at artificial intelligence. It seems obvious that a few years from now, deep in the heart of Cupertino inside Apple's spaceship HQ, Jobsi will be making decisions for the company. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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